• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, December 20, 2005

Amid growing fears that the imminent release of multiple, conflicting streams of national TV ratings data will throw the TV business into babel, Nielsen Monday announced plans to add another language into the mix: Spanish. Effective next week, Nielsen will begin reporting two sets of national TV ratings data for Spanish-language programming giant Univision: One set produced from Nielsen's general market sample, known as NTI (National Television Index); the other from a special Hispanic household sample known as NHTI (National Hispanic Television Index) that Nielsen created years ago to represent Hispanic households.

While the decision is a positive sign for Univision--and for Nielsen's efforts to improve the representation of Hispanics in its general market sample--the timing of the decision and the concurrent nature of two data streams for Univision couldn't be worse, coming as Nielsen also is introducing three new "official" sets of data for all TV networks and stations, as well as a unique set of data for the press that cover the television business.

The timing also is poor because it coincides with the worst possible season--the holidays--when Nielsen's sample, data gathering, and reporting systems are under their greatest strain. Last week, Nielsen unveiled a "recovery plan" to deal with the dislocation over the next few weeks that reads more like a battle plan than a research system (MDN Dec. 19), and noted that it also will face new challenges from households introducing record new numbers of TV-related consumer electronics products during the holiday season.

The release of Nielsen's new triple data play, of course, is related directly to one of those devices, the digital video recorder, and the debate over which of the data should be used for TV industry commerce--especially advertising deals--has sparked not just confusion, but a considerable amount of haggling between networks and major ad agencies.

On top of all this, Nielsen will actually introduce yet another stream of data early next year, albeit on a limited basis, that is bound to confuse the situation further: minute-by-minute TV ratings data. To date, only two customers have signed up to use the special, and very expensive minute-by-minute ratings data--Starcom MediaVest Group and The Weather Channel--and it will be some time before those numbers circulate publicly and widely. Initially, SMG will use the data in its internal planning and posting of TV buys, while Weather Channel will use it for negotiating and posting ad deals for its clients, but assuming the data shows what Paul Iaffaldano, executive vice president and general manager for Weather Channel's Media Solutions group believes it will, he says the spunky cable network will likely begin circulating it publicly.

Add all that up and it means not just three, but a multitude of official TV ratings data streams will flow from Nielsen beginning next week:

* NTI ratings for Univision.
* NHTI ratings for Univision.
* "Live" NTI ratings for all networks.
* "Live" plus same day DVR playback ratings for all networks.
* "Live" plus seven day DVR playback ratings for all networks.
* Season-to-date ratings for journalists based on a combination of "live" plus same day for the current two weeks and "live" plus seven days for all weeks prior.
* Minute-by-minute ratings for Starcom MediaVest Group and The Weather Channel.

As confusing as all this may seem, the reasons behind them all seem sound. Both buyers and sellers of television time have long wanted accurate data on DVR households. Some, especially advertisers and agencies, have wanted minute-by-minute ratings as a surrogate for commercial ratings. And Univision has long hoped to abandon its separate measurement sample to become included in the mainstream television marketplace.

"Some of the numbers are going to be higher and some of the numbers are going to be lower," concedes Ceril Shagrin, senior vice president of corporate research for Univision, who's long been the champion of improving the representation of Hispanic households in Nielsen's general sample to the point where it can be accurate for measuring Hispanics as well. "The NTI sample is still missing young Hispanics, especially young Spanish-speaking households. And it's probably missing some people on the other end, people in the 55-plus" demo, she said. She also said that the NTI sample is still too "English-dominant," but that by next September, when Nielsen's national TV ratings sample reaches nearly 10,000 households, its composition of Hispanics may be representative enough to make NTI the official currency of Univision's ratings. However, she said a decision to use NTI as the basis of advertising guarantees was a decision Univision's sales team has yet to make.

Shagrin said now that Nielsen's national TV ratings sample is approaching an accurate representation of Hispanics nationwide, she's going to focus more of her efforts on improving them in key local TV markets.