• by Wayne Friedman , April 13, 2006

Struggling daytime programming on the broadcast networks is now causing some massive end-of-the-season advertising inventory problems for the $1.2 billion business. But for alternative daytime TV sellers such as syndication and cable, there is opportunity.

Daytime shows are down by as much as 19 percent for the year in key demographics. With networks giving make-goods to make whole on their advertiser guarantees, this is causing a squeeze on second-quarter inventory, leaving many networks with little to sell. Others--perhaps looking to drive away business--are pricing what little inventory they have at a whopping 30 percent increase.

NBC, CBS, and ABC spokespersons were not reached by press time.

Through April 2, for the season so far, NBC is off 16 percent among key women viewers ages 25-54, and 16 percent among women viewers 18-49. ABC is down 12 percent in women 25-54 and 11 percent in women 18-49. CBS has lost the least--only off 5 percent in women 25-54 and 6 percent for women 18-49. NBC and CBS are also down in teen viewers, and ABC less so.

Limited inventory has daytime advertisers looking to buy in the scatter market, in syndication and cable.

"In daytime we are writing very healthy increases over the upfront," said Bo Argentino, senior vice president of advertising and media sales at NBC Universal Television Distribution--for shows such as "Maury," "Starting Over," and "Jerry Springer." Argentino did say the ratings and advertising problems in daytime are creating opportunities for daytime syndicated shows.

Media buying executives agree: "Syndication is in a better position than most."

This is because during the last upfront--a soft affair that took most of the summer to complete--syndicators held back more than the usual amount of inventory for the scatter period in an effort to sell daytime shows at a better rate. That has turned out to be true--as many shows are now getting high single- or double-digit percent increase in cost per thousand (CPM) viewers versus the upfront sales period.

"We have more scatter inventory as of late," said Argentino. "Last upfront wasn't as big as in the past."

Some broadcast networks are reportedly adding some extra ad inventory into shows to take care of the shortfall. As a result, networks don't have much to sell to traditional daytime advertisers such as pharmaceuticals--and there are some 30 percent price hikes.

"If you have to be on, you are going to have to bite the bullet," said a media buying executive who refused to be identified."

Media buying executives say there may be a problem in making good all the advertising promised to advertisers for this year--which could spill over into advertisers getting their guarantees fulfilled next season. That said, broadcast networks typically sell most of daytime avails during the upfront period. It typically doesn't sell as much scatter inventory as it does with prime-time shows.

Privately, some TV network executives are complaining that daytime's ratings problems are a possible Nielsen Media Research measurement issue. That's because for more than a few shows, the median average age has grown by nearly two years or more since last season. For instance, NBC's "Days of Our Lives" grew 1.8 years to a median age of 47.0; CBS' "Bold and the Beautiful" rose 2.6 years to 56.8; and CBS's "Young & The Restless" added 2.0 years to 57.0.

"Theoretically, it doesn't make sense," says Jon Currie, president of Currie Communications, a Pacific Palisades, Calif. TV research company. "Shows shouldn't grow [in median age] by two years--unless there are many new viewers coming into all these shows. It seems like it's a sampling issue."