As Top Series Molt, Peacock Net Does Some Preening For '04-'05

What is NBC going to do now that two of its most enduring sitcoms, "Friends" and "Frasier," are history? Will NBC's long-running dominance in adults 18-49 and upscale audiences finally come to an end in 2004-05? Or will Jeff Zucker & Co. come out on top by this time next year?

NBC will unveil its strategy in detail--and its spin to media buyers on how it's going to thrive in a post-"Friends" media landscape--when it takes the stage Monday afternoon at its upfront presentation in midtown Manhattan.

While executives aren't likely to be as cocky as they've been in the past, they also come into the upfront with a fair amount of momentum. "The Apprentice" unexpectedly became a wild hit for the network; there will be 32 one-hour episodes comprising two runs this season. "ER" isn't going anywhere, and even though "Friends" is history, fans have the chance to get to know even more about one of its characters, Joey, as actor Matt LeBlanc will be the star of a new sitcom expected to take the place of "Friends" at 8 p.m. Thursday.

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But media buyers are wary about whether NBC can hold onto its position as the home for must-see TV--an honor it has held since the 1980s, first with "The Cosby Show," then "Seinfeld," and later, "Friends." "Friends" was the top-rated comedy on television; more than 45 million tuned in for its final show two weeks ago. While "Frasier" wasn't what it used to be, the 11-year-old comedy did its part to deliver an upscale audience. And NBC has done well in the May sweeps.

"'Friends' was an outstanding performer for them. Losing that tent pole on Thursday nights is probably going to hurt them," says Lyle Schwartz, senior vice president and director of research at Mediaedge:cia in New York. "The question is--how good is the replacement show? And I don't think that the replacement show--even though it's supposedly 'Joey'--will perform as well as 'Friends.'"

Schwartz isn't alone in his opinion. Many don't give "Joey" the chance to surpass its predecessor. But, as some point out, "Joey" doesn't have to. Even part of the audience would help NBC in its struggle against CBS for dominance on Thursday night, which is the most important night of the week for advertisers wanting to plug movies, automobiles, and other consumer products and services.

"They do have high hopes for 'Joey.' I think their success will depend on whether they make him more of a three-dimensional character," says Susan McClellan, national media manager at Empower Media Marketing in Cincinnati. "If they go beyond that, he might have some promise." But that doesn't mean that it's certain. For every "Frasier" that comes out of "Cheers," there are plenty of other flops for shows that come out of programs with an ensemble cast. While they weren't direct spinoffs, shows starring "Seinfeld" alums Julia-Louis Dreyfus and Michael Richards failed on NBC.

NBC's schedule this season wasn't immune to failure. The highly touted "Lyon's Den" failed, and "Miss Match," "Whoopi," and "Happy Family" are on the bubble--all shows with established stars. But it was a TV novice--real estate magnate Donald Trump--who delivered the best new story of the year for NBC with "The Apprentice." Trump's reality show became a cultural phenomenon, following the same path as "Survivor" and "American Idol."

And a show that had been passed up by other networks quickly became NBC's savior on Thursday nights. Instead of bleak words coming from 30 Rockefeller Center, NBC executives have been whistling happy tunes about "The Apprentice" and its ability to keep NBC on top. Trump has been signed on for next year's shows. While "The Apprentice" was a certifiable hit, the question remains whether it's got staying power.

"I think that NBC has quite a challenging year ahead of them. When you think about their lineup right now, the one anchor they do have is 'The Apprentice,' which is absolutely a runaway hit," says Kristi Argyilan, executive vice president and director of media at Hill, Holliday. "But after that is a big gap."

Argyilan thinks that the key to success for NBC would be to come up with scripted programming that is compelling and interesting. Susan Hajny, broadcast research manager at GSD&M in Chicago, doesn't think "The Apprentice" is a long-term solution for NBC.

"Ratings-wise, NBC probably is still in a dominant position. However, moving forward, they need to convince the buyers that they're not going to become overly dependent on reality," Hajny says. "I don't think that there's a lot of confidence in those numbers ["The Apprentice"] continuing, and NBC needs to be putting a lot of investment into scripted programming."

A recent report by Horizon Media's Brad Adgate estimates that NBC will have to replace between three and six hours of programming during the week, depending on the fate of several shows on the bubble. He notes that several programs are sure to return, including "Fear Factor," "Third Watch," "The West Wing," "Las Vegas," and the three "Law & Order" shows. A fourth "Law & Order" will join the stable in the fall. He thinks there's a fair amount of positive momentum for the Peacock.

"I think that they're still in the driver's seat, and certainly having the Olympics in August and premiering shows after the Olympics is a very good move instead of waiting three weeks," Adgate says. He says NBC's strength has always been in cleverly written situation comedies. NBC presented 17 at its development meetings earlier this year.

The "Law & Order" spinoff is likely to be a winner. And NBC is putting a lot of ink into "The Contender," a boxing-oriented show that may make a reality TV star out of actor/director Sylvester Stallone.

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