Studios Set A Slo-Mo Pace, Hit Pause On DVR Playback

In a sign of how 2006-07 network upfront ad sales may pace, a bellwether category doesn't seem in any rush. As of late Monday, the major movie studios -- typically the first to make TV upfront advertising deals -- weren't exactly clamoring to start the ball rolling after last week's upfront program presentations. The reason for the delay: the studios are waiting for the networks to finalize their TV ratings policies concerning playback by digital video recorders.

The movie and automotive ad categories will be closely watched this season, because they are both high-demand categories that typically move fast and pay high ad prices, enabling the networks to set the advertising bar for other ad categories.

Movie marketers historically are among the most concerned with the positioning of their commercials in specific TV shows - especially on Thursday night -- as well as the flexibility to move their inventory. In the past, this has often meant they would rush to market and pay the highest rate of any advertising category. But the pace appears to be slowing down this year, due in part to discussion over the possible inclusion of DVR playback in negotiations. Late last year, Nielsen began including DVR households in its sample, and has been reporting three types of ratings: so-called "live," live plus same day of DVR playback, and live plus seven days of DVR playback.

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"Everybody is playing the waiting game," says Geoff Robison, senior vice president-national broadcast for Palisades Media Group, the Santa Monica, Calif.-based media agency that buys TV ad time for number of small to mid-size studios. "Nobody is going to move until this gets resolved."

Early on many network executives took positions that upfront negotiations would be based on live plus seven-day ratings. A number of big ad agencies including Carat and Interpublic's Magna Global USA have advocated live ratings until Nielsen data, arguing there isn't enough information yet to estimate the value of DVR ratings. The media buyers said they hoped the industry would table the issue until next year and continue negotiating this year's deals based on so-called "live" ratings.

With many buyers projecting little or not upfront ad price increases versus last year, some are grumbling that networks are just using the DVR issue to grab an artificial boost in their cost-per-thousand viewers.

Given the time-sensitive nature of theatrical films - with opening weekend being crucially important -- the DVR issue is causing some movie studios to slow down their typical sprint into the marketplace.

But all this might not last long - even if DVR issues are not completely resolved. "Once someone makes a move and programming starts to be sold out," says another veteran movie media buying executive, "everyone will jump in."

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