• by Paul Gough , May 27, 2004

With top-tier cable networks taking in about $1.5 billion in sales during the second week of their 2004-05 upfront negotiations, it's still unclear exactly when the broadcast network prime-time marketplace will break.

Buyers and network executives said Thursday that agencies had submitted budgets for their clients to the networks, but it was likely that the plans won't go back to the agencies until next week, making it possible that the broadcast upfront breaks sometime late next week. One network executive who asked not to be identified said that there was still work to be done ahead of major deal-making.

One buyer contacted by MediaDailyNews mostly concurred, possibly anticipating a three-day weekend for Memorial Day.

"That could change if one of them [the networks] panics and gets a sense that there might not be enough for them and starts it early," this buyer said. "Everything else is taking on a slower, more methodical pace. Not that the cable networks were insanely hectic, but they obviously moved a lot more readily."

Many of the cable networks have been selling time since last week at what is an earlier and faster pace than the past two years, when the broadcast upfront jumped out of the gate first. This time cable's in the driver's seat, at least until the Big Four have their engines started. One cable executive estimated $1.5 billion in business has been written so far on cable.

"We're really almost finished with where we wanted to be in the upfront," said a cable executive. Several cable networks said things were progressing smoothly, and much more rapidly than in the recent past. The bulk of the cable upfront could be finished within the next several weeks.

"The marketplace is really starting to move now," said Steve Gigliotti, executive vice president of ad sales for Scripps Networks, which own HGTV, Food Network, and other channels. "We've written several deals already, ranging in volume from 30 percent larger to two times over last year's numbers." He estimates an average CPM increase in the high teens.

"There's a lot of enthusiasm for cable in general, and specifically for the more targeted networks such as Scripps Networks," he said. "Clearly, the agencies are recognizing the important of audience engagement. I say that because we are attracting non-endemic advertisers as well as endemic advertisers, and they are willing to pay a premium rate to be on our networks. That's very gratifying."

The question left unanswered is what kind of upfront the broadcast networks are going to have.

"Broadcast hasn't moved, so no one has seen the kind of money that is out there," said one ad sales executive who asked not to be named. "There's money going to the top-tiered cable networks. The big question is, is it broadcast money that shifted, is it all the new money that was going to cable ...? Nobody knows."