• by Wayne Friedman , December 14, 2006

For almost a decade, cable networks have challenged broadcast networks. Now, cable is crucial to keeping overall TV viewing growing--all in the face of expanding digital platforms.

Jack Wakshlag, chief research officer of Turner Broadcasting, notes in a presentation titled "Ad-Supported Television Audience Performance" that among consumers ages 18-34--a critical growing demographic group that will become tomorrow's 18-49 viewers--TV witnessed a gain of about 1.2 hours per person per week since 2000, the second-most of any media.

TV is growing, says Wakshlag. But most of those gains are not coming from prime time or prime-access programming--they are thanks to weekday mornings, up 14%; weekday daytime, up 8%, and late fringe, with a 7% improvement.

Internet usage is up two hours since 2000--the most of any media. Other smaller gains include wireless content (0.5 hours), home video (0.4 hours) and radio (0.2 hours).

"Digital platforms have not halted the growth of TV," he says.

Cable networks continue to drive viewership to TV overall--as all the while, broadcast continues to decline. In 2006 to date, ad-supported cable grew 29% in adults 18-49, to 15 hours per person per week over 2001. In the same period, broadcast networks dropped to 17%--8.5 hours per person per week.

Among many firsts that cable has touted through the last decade, it recently added another: victory in the November sweeps. Ad-supported cable networks amassed a 42.5 share of adult 18-49 viewers--more than the six broadcast networks, which pulled in a 39.7 share.

Among other activity, Wakshlag said TNT's "The Closer" has become the cable networks' No. 1 series of all time in terms of households and viewers. "The Closer" averages 6.6 million viewers and 4.9 million households.

While many cable networks have grown year-to-year among 18-49 viewers, Wakshlag says not all gains come from program performances. National Geographic gained 18%, Hallmark gained 15%, and Oxygen gained 14%--mostly from distribution gains.

Overall, the biggest gainers in 2006 so far include: History International (120%), G4 (85%), Biography Channel (82%), Science Channel (40%), Bravo (40%), E! (19%), A&E (18%), National Geographic (18%) and Versus (18%).

Networks turning south include: The Weather Channel, down 29%; Game Show Network, off 20%; Lifetime, with a 20% drop; Spike, down 17%; Sci-Fi Channel, off 11%; and MTV, 10% under.

As for the new commercial-ratings service, which Nielsen says will be available just before the start of the upfront in April, Wakshlag believes Turner networks will be prepared--despite the service's close launch date to the big sales period.

"We have enough to estimate right now," he says.

The difference between program ratings and commercial ratings is about 8%, said Wakshlag. In digital video recording, he estimates about 50% of commercials are fast-forwarded.

Cable networks now account for 31% of all prime-time ad dollars, says Wakshlag. But that doesn't jive with the 55% of viewing that cable nets currently get in terms of prime-time household shares. "So there is potential upside," he adds. In 2001, cable networks had 22% of all prime-time ad dollars.