• by Erik Sass  @eriksass1, February 26, 2007

In a finding that's likely to stoke growing interest in Hispanic consumers, Kagan Research is predicting a $5.5 billion Hispanic radio and TV ad market by 2010. The boom will benefit broadcast and cable TV, but will favor cable nets, which should see 32% overall growth in Hispanic ad dollars versus 12.5% for broadcast in the eight years between 2002 and 2010.

According to Deana Myers, senior analyst for Kagan Research, the boom will be driven by two positive concurrent trends: overall growth of the Hispanic population, and the increase in purchasing power accompanying its rapid demographic upward shift as more Hispanic families move into the middle class. Myers predicts that both the television and radio sectors "should benefit from increased interest in targeting the demo."

Between the growing American-born and new immigrant populations, Hispanics are en route to becoming the largest ethnic minority in American history--in both absolute numerical and percentage terms. In 2005, it topped 42 million or 14.4% of the overall population--up 0.3% from 2004. More than one-third of the country's Hispanic population--about 16 million people--are immigrants. Combined, native-born and immigrant Hispanic Americans now outnumber the 34.3 million Americans who claim Irish descent. Plus, the group is poised to surpass the nation's biggest ethnic group: German-Americans, who number about 45 million.

Of course, this population is hardly uniform, with wide variation along national and generational lines. For example, according to Elena Marroquin, vice president and director of strategy for Tapestry, a multicultural marketing firm, the language of preference flips between recent immigrants and their children: While 73% of Hispanic immigrants favor Spanish, only 25% of their children do. That number falls to 15% by the second generation.

It's not clear from the initial release whether Kagan analyzed Spanish-language versus English-language media.