• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, June 22, 2007

As the CW moved within a hair of completing its upfront late Thursday, agencies began in earnest to register budgets for the cable marketplace. And executives said they expect the process will lead to deal-making cranking up next week, but at what pace?

One principal issue: What will MTV do? The CEO of parent Viacom said just 18 days ago that MTV Networks has no intention of negotiating based on commercial ratings. But after the broadcast networks--including CW--embraced them, the question is whether that pledge will hold up as buyers press to use the new currency.

"That one is a bloody battle," said a non-Viacom cable executive.

MTVN was successful at holding the line in a deal announced Thursday between Nickelodeon and agency Starcom, which is based on traditional program ratings. But Nickelodeon appears to hold much of its kids' audience during commercial breaks.

When it comes to the tech-savvy, impulsive teens watching MTV who treat a remote control like a joystick, it's another issue--and that's the likely impetus for MTVN's wish to hold off on commercial ratings until it can tinker with pod lengths and devise other tactics to build viewer retention during breaks. A call to MTVN was not immediately returned.

At the CW, demand on the buy-side appeared to be healthy with pricing increases in line with the other broadcast networks, perhaps in the high single-digits. The so-called C3 currency--commercial ratings for live plus three-day DVR viewing--also was being used, also following the Big 4 broadcasters.

In its first-ever upfront last year after it was formed from a merger of the WB and UPN, the CW pulled in some $630 million, according to Merrill Lynch.

A volume jump--even 5%--would be notable since the network failed to roar out of the gate and finished its first-ever year with, by one measure, a 2.0 in its target women 18-to-34 demo. That wasn't much better than either the WB or UPN, which finished with a respective 1.9 and 1.8 in their final seasons.

Only one of the CW's shows, "America's Next Top Model," cracks the top-35 in the adults 18-to-34 demo.

Based on some estimates, the CW could push the five-network upfront take to around $9.2 billion.

Unlike the broadcast upfront, which moved with surprising quickness, cable could be more of a marathon--particularly if MTVN digs in its heels. Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman told Wall Street earlier this month that the new commercial ratings aren't reliable enough yet to enter the marketplace. "We think it needs another year of fine-tuning for cable networks," he said.

Still, Dauman acknowledged the ratings will ultimately emerge as the dominant currency. In that vein, the Starcom/Nick deal includes an agreement to study the impact of commercial ratings and exact-minute performances in the kids' space.

Outside the kids' area, only two cable deals are known to have taken place--one involving NBC Universal's networks and GroupM and another between Starcom and Discovery. The NBCU deal used C3, while Starcom and Discovery employed exact-minute ratings.

With multiple metrics in play, one executive called it the "Wild West." And cable networks, save MTV, are indicating they will try to accommodate buyers' preferences.

Leading cable networks could have all their budgets registered by today or Monday, with one group Thursday saying about 65% were already in.