Internet Gridlock Forecast From Olympic-Sized Downloads

Without ample and immediate investment, the information superhighway is destined for gridlock, according to a report released Thursday by the New Millennium Research Council, a Washington, D.C.-based lobby and policy group. Specifically, the report questions the readiness for NBC's Web coverage of the 2008 Olympics in China, which is expected to generate thousands of real-time hours of high-bandwidth programming.

To keep pace with current and future bandwidth demands, major investments in new capacity and intelligent network technologies will be needed, the report finds.

"To ensure that the next innovator is able to thrive free of traffic congestion, service providers will have to continuously invest in new capacity while applying the latest technological solutions to manage growing traffic efficiently," said Ed Moran, director of Product Innovation & NE Convergence Practice at the technology, media and telecommunications group of Deloitte Services.

"In order to cope with the significant traffic growth that will be associated with the advent of high-grade, longer-form video, networks must be continuously monitored and prepared for the necessary upgrade," said report author Jason Kowal, U.S. head of research at Analysys Consulting, a Beijing-based research company.

Added Kowal: "Service providers, software companies, and network vendors will need to constantly invent new ways to meet enhanced expectations for speed, security, and accountability."

The report points to recent findings, including a March 2007 comScore study, which found that 123 million people in the U.S.--70% of Internet users--viewed 123 billion videos online, with an average length of 2.6 minutes.

Last year, telecommunications analyst group TeleGeography found that the growth in average Internet traffic levels--75%--outpaced the growth of capacity--47%--on international Internet backbones for the third consecutive year.

Notably, the New Millennium Research Council itself advocates for limited government involvement in the restructuring of the Web, or at least restraint on the part of public policymakers.

"Careful attention should be paid to any new regulation which might adversely impact the business case for Internet investment or set preference for one business model over another," the report warns. "Regulators should not inhibit Internet service providers' flexibility to experiment with new traffic management technologies and strategies in order to efficiently deliver new services with the quality and security options that Internet users desire."

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