Commentary

Ratings Ranting

Like a Victorian novel, the saga of Arbitron’s Portable People Meter (PPM) service for radio ratings goes on and on and on; just when everything seems neatly wrapped up, a new villain emerges — and turns out to be an old villain everyone thought was dead. The current controversy centers on the panels of radio listeners who participate in Arbitron’s PPM service — or rather, those who don’t.

Beginning last summer, big broadcasters noted that Arbitron was failing to meet its own targets for sample sizes in Houston and Philadelphia, the markets where PPM ratings were already in effect. A large proportion of panel recruits were failing to carry the device with them as promised. 

The discrepancies were especially pronounced among African American demos, including men ages 18–54. Broadcasters who target African American audiences claimed this made the ratings unreliable, with Jim Winston, executive director of the National Association of Black Owned Broadcasters, noting, “the samples in both Philadelphia and Houston for this demo have been consistently and substantially below the proportion of the population represented by this demo, and substantially below the sample size Arbitron set for itself to reach.”

According to Cox Radio CEO Robert Neil, the result was widespread confusion among advertisers and media buyers compounded by unfamiliarity with the new system. “Many of the agencies out there just haven’t been properly trained on what all of this means,” he says. “There’s a tremendous amount of chaos.” 

The introduction of PPM ratings in New York produced a fresh wave of protest from minority broadcasters, who saw ratings and station rankings plunge.

Media execs could be forgiven for throwing up their hands at the latest plot twist, but the problem with sample sizes is actually nothing new. Indeed the basic problem — under-delivery of sample sizes — has been known for years. Neil of Cox Radio puts it this way: “The troubling thing is that Arbitron has known for a while about these sampling issues, and you’d think they would have been especially careful approaching an important market like New York City.” It’s worth noting that during the protracted debate over electronic measurement for radio, media planners generally lined up with Arbitron, putting pressure on radio-company holdouts that questioned the system. Many reasoned that PPM was a fait accompli, and it still is — now just somewhat deferred.

Meanwhile, the delay in PPM commercialization couldn’t come at a worse time for radio, as it contends with an apparent economic slowdown and is in freefall. In 2007, total radio revenues posted 1 percent growth in the first quarter, a 1 percent drop in the second, a 5 percent drop in the third, and a 4 percent drop in the fourth. Broadcasters cling to the vague hope that reliable electronic measurement will give them a much-needed boost before the bottom really drops out.

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