• by Jack Loechner , Staff Writer @mp_research, July 2, 2002

Advertising in TV Up, Newspapers Up, Radio Up

Advertising spending is expected to rise 2.5 percent for 2002 to 109.1 billion, according to the mid-year estimate released at AdWatch: Outlook 2002 by CMR.

David Peeler, president and CEO of CMR, reported "We are off to a good start this year, which suggests a rebound over last year... we can expect three factors to boost the market this year: the impact of the upfront on the broadcast season, the upcoming elections in November and the continued growth of Spanish Language television. Nonetheless, despite the improvement over 2001, full year 2002 will be down 6.7 percent when compared to the high-water mark of 2000."

CMR estimates that total ad spending for the first half of 2002 will show a slight decline, down 0.4 percent compared to the same timeframe in 2001. In retrospect, without the $986 million in ad spending on the Winter Olympics, the first half of 2001 would be down 2.2 percent. While improvement in the latter half of the year is expected due to stronger growth during the third and fourth quarters, the second half of 2002 is being compared to the particularly depressed levels of 2001.

2002 QUARTERLY GROWTH TRENDS

	2002 Percentage Change Versus
	2001	2000
First Half	-0.4 % (e)	-6.1 %
1st Quarter	0.4 %	-3.9 %
2nd Quarter	-1.1 % (e)	-8.1 % (e)
Second Half	6.2 % (e)	-7.3 % (e)
3rd Quarter	5.1 % (e)	-7.9 % (e)
4th Quarter	7.1 % (e)	-6.8 % (e)
Full Year	2.5 % (e)	-6.7 % (e)

Source: CMR/TNS Media Intelligence U.S. (e) = Estimate

GROWTH ESTIMATES FOR 2002 BY MEDIA

Media	Percent Estimate
Network TV	4.5 %
Spot TV	8.9 %
Cable TV	-0.3 %
Syndication	-3.2 %
Spanish Language TV	10.4 %
Consumer / Sunday Magazines	-2.8 %
B2B Magazines	-11.4 %
Newspapers (Local)	5.7 %
National Newspapers	-1.7 %
Radio (Network, Spot and Local)	6.7 %
Internet	5.3 %
Outdoor	-1.0 %

Source: CMR/TNS Media Intelligence U.S.

The upcoming elections in November will provide added spending for spot television, local newspapers and radio advertising across markets in states with significant Congressional and statewide races. CMR predicts Spanish Language TV to lead spending in 2002 by 10.4 percent. Peeler noted, "Year-over-year, CMR has tracked a healthy double-digit growth pattern for this medium, which has surprisingly outpaced the trend for the market in general. Interestingly, in the midst of the recession, Spanish Language TV grew by 14 percent."

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