If Vegas Only Took My Bet...

by Matt Wise, Apr 3, 2008, 9:45 AM

• Comment
• Recommend
• Tweet
• 

This time last year, Performance Insider had just launched to thunderous applause and I had the honor of writing the second ever column. The topic was my predictions for the lead generation industry in 2007. I'd like to take a quick step back now to review how I did and then lay out a few wagers for 2008.

2007 Prediction Results

Big brands adopt online lead generation. I'm happy to report that big brands did, in fact, jump on the bandwagon in 2007. Prominent retailers, CPG manufacturers and healthcare/pharmaceutical companies, among a variety of other industries, joined traditional direct marketers to help the category continue its record growth this past year. Some highlights included Betty Crocker, Fisher-Price, Folgers, McDonald's, Hyatt Hotels, NASCAR, Tampax, and Bennigan's.

Category to grow beyond $2 billion. Speaking of growth, I didn't hit this one exactly, but lead generation is projected to be fastest growing segment of online ad spending for the second year in a row, as measured by the Interactive Advertising Bureau.  Final numbers aren't out yet for the full year, but at mid-2007 the category experienced overall growth of 35% compared to online advertising's overall average growth of 26%.

Downsizing in the industry. The lead-gen industry indeed saw the consolidation of larger players, the most prominent of which was the acquisition of Aptimus by the Apollo Group. While there was a continued proliferation of small companies trying to cash in on the trend, many of the medium-sized players disappeared completely over the last year.  

Conspicuous consent standards adopted/The ax falls on data skimming. I was off by a month or so, but on February 7, 2008, the IAB released online lead generation best practices for advertisers and publishers that took on both of these issues. It was endorsed by all of the lead industry's large players and is in the process of being implemented across the board.

So, I'm calling it four out of five for 2007, and a giant step forward for our industry as a whole. As for 2008, here are four predictions that I'm confident will take place as the category continues its rise to mainstream online ad vehicle.

Trademark abuse halted. I see trademark abuse receiving the same level of attention in 2008 as conspicuous consent did last year. The problem is threefold.  First, there are players who are driving leads by promoting free samples of a brand-name product (using the product's name and image) without permission from the brand being hawked. Second, there are the domain squatters who are gaming search algorithms and siphoning traffic to fake landing pages made to appear to be endorsed by a household brand. Again, permission was never granted.  Finally, some players are buying a brand name as a keyword and then driving the traffic to a landing page for another brand. I expect trademark holders to finally say enough is enough and crack down on these practices in 2008.

Marketers reward players based on white-hat status. Now that all reputable lead generation players have adopted the IAB's recommended best practices and conspicuous consent standards, marketers will begin to differentiate and award business based on a company's white hat status.  The unscrupulous players will stand out like an elephant in the room and continue to dwindle into oblivion.

More multinational buys. U.S.-based businesses will make a global footprint via multinational lead generation buys though U.S.-based vendors. I expect to see this growing trend at full steam by end of the year.

Slowing economy drives branding dollars to measurable outlets. As a student of the advertising industry for the last 15 years, I see this one is a no-brainer.  When the economy is going well, brands spend freely on vehicles with less measurability.  When the economy is tightening, as it is today, brands feel the need to justify their spending and turn to more measurable ad vehicles. Online lead generation, as well as other performance-based, analytics-backed online categories, will see the benefits of this trend in 2008.

Feel free to comment below on my take on last year and the year ahead.  Otherwise, we'll talk the same time next year for a recap of 2008.

• Comment
• Recommend
• Tweet
• 

Be the first to comment on "If Vegas Only Took My Bet..."

Leave a Comment