• by Karlene Lukovitz  @KLmarketdaily, July 3, 2008

Cost pressures are accelerating uptake of sustainable food sources and certain other food and restaurant trends, according to Ramin Ganeshram, director and consumer strategist for food/beverage at Iconoculture, a cultural trend research company.

While consumption of organics and fresh produce has been on a strong upward curve for years now, cost factors are motivating consumers who might not otherwise have been so quick to jump on the sustainability bandwagon to seek out regional food sources and private-label organics, and even try their hands at kitchen gardens, says Ganeshram.

In the past, buying food at farmers' markets was more expensive, but soaring fuel prices are now giving the cost edge to local growers, who do not have to factor long-distance transportation into their prices. And as more budget-conscious consumers turn to farmers' markets, more such markets are in turn springing up around the nation.

In addition to buying produce from farmers' markets, more people are going directly to local farms to purchase fresh eggs and dairy products. Meanwhile, kitchen gardens are a still-small but noticeably growing phenomenon.

These behaviors are "primarily about saving money," although the quality/taste of fresh foods and the knowledge that buying from local sources helps minimize one's carbon footprint are definite "side benefits," notes Ganeshram. "A hyper-local eating movement is emerging," she says.

In addition, more consumers are buying less expensive private-label organic brands, which are becoming increasingly available not only through pioneers such as Whole Foods and Trader Joe's, but more mainstream retailers. Examples include Stop & Shop's Nature's Promise. And Target's Archer Farms. "People don't want to give up their organics, but as the recession worsens, they're seeking out cheaper organics," sums up Ganeshram.

In response, retailers are expanding their lines of private-label organics even more rapidly, to encompass everything from milk to chocolate bars. And while the economy is currently driving the acceleration in consumer demand and new SKU's within the private-label organics sector, these buying patterns "will become so entrenched that they will be here to stay," says the trends analyst.

Saving money by forgoing costlier convenience foods in favor of doing the work oneself is another emerging, recession-driven trend, she reports. Whereas buying a whole chicken, cutting it up and using virtually every part--including using bones for stock--is de rigueur among restaurant chefs, the same type of behavior is now increasingly being seen among home chefs and foodies.

"At-home chefs are saving money through high-yield food measures, and this will trickle down to the masses"--just as adoption of some foods once considered "highly ethnic," such as chipotle, begins with gourmets and eventually spreads even to quintessential mass outlets such as McDonald's, Ganeshram points out.

Speaking of which, hard times are also driving faster "cultural fusion" in the F&B arena. Foodies tend to be adventurous types who travel a lot and like to learn about other cultures' unique foods firsthand, but now that it's tougher to afford travel, many are intensifying their exploration of highly regional ethnic foods found right here in the U.S.

"It's food as passport," says Ganeshram, pointing to gourmets' growing interest in "drilling down" to experience sub-sectors of ethnic foods. For these folks, "generic" Indian or Caribbean cuisine now familiar to the masses is now too prosaic; the challenge is in "discovering" South Indian, Punjabi, Haitian and other highly regionalized cuisines within ethnic communities in the U.S.

The wider recognition and appreciation of regionalized ethnic foods is, in turn, creating even greater pride among U.S.-born offspring of immigrants and contributing to the existing trend toward ethnic groups preserving and passing along their cuisines/cultural practices rather than gradually abandoning these as acculturation progresses, according to Ganeshram.

"Ethnic groups are looking back to their own cultural foods," she says, citing the example of the rise within Mexican-American communities of tamalades-parties based on the communal activity of making labor-intensive, authentic tamales.

As for restaurants, consumers' shift from higher-priced venues to fast-food and other cheaper options isn't the only cost-driven trend underway.

Increasingly, restaurants are undergoing "tapafication": That is, offering menus featuring a wider array of foods in smaller portions as main entrées, as opposed to adhering to the traditional appetizer-plus-large main entrée scenario.

This trend began in part as a response to meeting the preferences of 18- to-30-year-old Millennials who tend to be "opportunity eaters" or "grazers" and often opt for non-traditional food choices, such as eating waffles for dinner, explains Ganeshram. With health- and weight-conscious consumers cutting back on sweets, restaurants also spotted smaller portions as a way to successfully tempt customers into springing for a dessert, even at big-portion prices.

Now, with the costs of many staples and ingredients jumping exponentially, tapafication is quickly spreading from desserts to entrée menus. Some restaurants are successfully maintaining full-size portion prices on smaller-sized tapas offerings, while others are now seeking to lure budget-challenged customers (while preserving their margins) by offering varieties of smaller-sized selections at prices somewhat cheaper than a full-monty entree, Ganeshram reports.

Of course, restaurants aren't the only ones that have caught onto this trick. Anyone who shops for food knows that package and can sizes continue to shrink, as prices stay the same or creep upward.

Ganeshram says that we can expect more of the same, particularly in categories that are dependent on input commodities most affected by market forces and inflation, such as dairy, cereals and confections.

According to Minneapolis-based Iconoculture, the firm uses an extensive network of in-the-field observers to spot emerging trends, employing a "rational structure" for observation that covers a comprehensive breadth of demographics and product categories. As observations of emerging consumer needs or desires are identified, and then grow into trends and ultimately "macrotrends," the firm's specialized strategists analyze them and interpret their implications for broader consumer behavior.