C3 Ratings Deliver For Nets--But They Aren't Holy Grail

tv watchers TV networks' advertisers are still getting the benefits of doing deals on commercial ratings, rather than program ratings. But not by much. The percentage declines in C3 ratings--commercial ratings plus three days of DVR playback-- are not as great as with live program ratings.

For example, NBC only declined 10% in C3 ratings among 18-49 viewers versus 13% in live program ratings; Fox is down 16% in C3, versus an 18% fall in live program ratings. CW just lost 9% in C3 versus 18% in live program ratings.

Three of the five networks--ABC, CBS and Fox--maintained the exact same numbers, for C3 compared to live program ratings this year. But NBC and CW actually improved in C3 over their respective program ratings. NBC climbed to a 2.7 C3 rating compared to a 2.6 in live program ratings. CW was up one-tenth in C3 compared to live program rating: a 1.0 versus a 0.9 rating. On a statistically averaged basis, both C3 ratings and live program ratings were down 14% among the five networks.

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Overall, media agency executives complain that none of these current trends are a good sign. National TV advertisers are in the second year of making media deals guaranteed on C3 ratings. Previously, and for many decades before, deals were made on a live program basis.

The better news comes from the networks' older viewers, where the declines in C3 ratings are not as great as with live program numbers. Collectively, among the five networks, C3 was down 12% among 25-54 viewers versus a 15% decline among live program ratings.

In C3 ratings among 18-49 viewers, ABC is leading all networks, but is down 15% versus a year ago to a 2.9. CBS is in second place at a 2.8 rating; down 7%, it's the least-declining network. NBC and Fox were tied for third place with a 2.7. NBC was down 10%, and Fox was off 16%. CW dropped to a 1.0--down 9%, one of the better-performing networks this season.

Much of the same trend can be seen in the young 18-34 viewers. Fox takes the No. 1 spot with a 2.5 rating among C3 ratings, but has dropped 17% versus a year ago. NBC and ABC are tied for second place with a 2.3 number; NBC is down 12%, and ABC has slipped 15%. CBS dropped to a 1.7 rating--down 15% from a year ago. CW has the lowest decline of the bunch, down 8% to a 1.1.

Program ratings plus three days of DVR (P3) viewership are all higher compared to commercial ratings of three days of DVR viewership. But many double-digit declines remain, versus a year ago. Adults 18-49 are down 12% among all networks for P3 ratings, while 18-34 viewers are off 11%.

Some of the best individual data regarding commercial ratings is with CBS--the network that declined least. This was especially true with older demos that have the tendency to watch more commercial messages. For example, CBS was down only 5% among 25-54 viewers in C3, and off 4% among viewers 50 and older.

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