Edmunds--the monthly prognosticator of all things automotive-- predicts that only 730,000 new vehicles will have been sold in the U.S. in January, a 32.8% decrease from January 2008 (adjusted for more selling days last month) and an 18.1% decrease from December 2008.

The firm says that many of these lost sales were the result of far fewer deliveries to rental fleets by the domestic automakers, partly from a strategy to focus on retail, from production cuts in recent weeks, and because rental fleets are not buying.

If Edmunds is correct, Chrysler will have seen a 50% loss of sales versus January last year; Ford, a 32.5% drop; and GM, a 40.4% decline. Edmunds says the imports will suffer less with Honda likely to post a 26% drop; Nissan, a 31% drop, and Toyota a 27% decline.

Edmunds says market share for the imports is heading up, while Ford's is flat and GM and Chrysler's share are dropping. Market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors is likely to be in the neighborhood of 46%--down from 52.1% last year and 50% in December. Ford's market share is likely to be around 15% in January--up from 14.9% in January but down from 15.2% last month.

Jesse Toprak, who leads industry analysis at Edmunds.com, says Ford's market share increased substantially in September and October from historical low-water points of 12.2% in August and 12.3% in September. They reached 16% by the end of October before heading back down in December. "There is certainly the fact that domestics have been cutting rental fleet sales, and they will continue to lose market share as they do so because some of it was due to very high rental sales."

The firm predicts Honda's market share will be 10.4% for January 2009, a one percentage point increase versus last year and a .7% increase versus December. Nissan's share will likely be up slightly from last year as well and up half a percentage point from last month. Toyota, which passed GM as the largest global automaker will, per Edmunds see share increase to 17.8% in January, a 1.4% increase versus the month last year, and up 1.9% versus December.

There may be at least a little good news on the horizon: people who have been putting off buying new cars for months are reaching a point where they may be unwilling to put it off for much longer. Edmunds says there was a 13% increase in purchase intent on Edmunds.com versus December, and that such activity suggests sales will start to pick up in March.

"Historically, purchase intent--from consumers who show a pattern of deep engagement on our site--is a very good indicator of future demand," says Toprak. "Between December and January, we usually see a decline, but we saw the reverse of that last month. People are interested and able to buy, but aren't willing to push the trigger. It could be a reflection that pent-up demand has reached a point where some consumers will have to buy."

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