| My Predictions for 2006 |
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by Cory Treffiletti, Wednesday, December 14, 2005, 12:30 PM
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It's that time of year again... the holiday season! The year is wrapping up; planners are crossing their t's and dotting their i's, and clients are looking forward to the coming year and the challenges that it brings as markets heat up and the competition gets stiffer. The last few weeks have been so full of earth-shattering advancements in online video and video-on-demand that it's probably been hard to catch a breath, but this week I want to do just that. I want to slow down and issue my annual predictions for what you can look forward to in 2006. Sit back, put your feet up on the desk, and think about what I have to say...
1. User-generated content will be king. There is more and more video content coming online everyday, but even the networks and the portals can't possibly keep up with consumers. The consumers are creating some of the best content online! They're uploading more than 100,000 new clips per day across the primary video sites--and much of this content can be sponsored by advertisers. Advertisers who take advantage of this new vehicle will benefit from being that much closer to the consumer.
2. Video-on-demand will start to incorporate advertising. There are many ways being tested right now for graphical advertising to surround VOD, but there are few ways for advertising to be incorporated into the video. My prediction here is that advertisers and the networks will come to an agreement about how this inventory should be sold--and I suspect you'll see it become a line in the upfront negotiations. I think it will happen this year because everyone has this topic top of mind--and the upfronts are going to need to be topical in order to survive in the long run. This is their one shot at it, and they can't afford to miss out.
3. The topic of "Integration" is not going to go away. Not until we figure it out, which means P&L in holding companies are going to have to take a back seat to education and empowerment. Numerous divisions in the agency world are going to need to evolve to be inclusive of one another for integration to become a reality, and the big holding companies are going to need to structurally change. It's a large undertaking, so 2006 will see the beginning of this trend, but the results probably won't show until 2007.
4. Mobile advertising will come into its own. 2005 was full of companies trying out mobile, but in 2006 we'll start to see cooperation among the carriers regarding operating systems and advertising methods, mostly as a result of third-party companies entering the mix to help establish these standards. As standards are developed, more advertisers will be encouraged to try mobile as an extension of their other media vehicles. 2006 will see a probable 50 percent increase in dollars being allocated to mobile. At least that's my guess.
5. In-game advertising is going to explode With the Xbox 360 and the PS3 in the market in 2006, in-game advertising will be ultra-realistic, and advertisers are going to take notice. Gamers are an uncluttered, totally engaged audience, composed primarily of men 18-34, which advertisers want to reach in increasing ways. Of course, most of these opportunities have to be planned in advance of games being launched, but as more games are developed to play across networked consoles, companies like Massive are going to benefit from advertisers joining the game late. It's a gaming world!
6. There will be some element of backlash towards product placement from the consumer. This is solely my prediction, but since the rules have yet to be written about how product placement is tolerated by the consumer, some company is going to overstep its bounds--and the consumer will let it know. To date we've seen pretty subtle product placement, in shows like "American Idol" and "Desperate Housewives," but somewhere along the way we're inevitably going to see someone go too far. I can't say when or who will do it, but there is precedence in all forms of media. Banners worked for a while, and then consumers got annoyed. Pop-ups worked for a while, and then users got annoyed. It's just my gut, but someone is going to be so over-the-top that consumers will start to get annoyed, and they'll express themselves online for all to see.
7. An advertiser will publicly state that its strategic planning will be led by its interactive agency for all media. This is my biggest gamble, but every prognosticator has to have one. As more media goes digital, it will become more important to have your digital strategy front and center. Some company is going to recognize this and make the change to have its digital agency developing strategy to be used across all media. It's logical, don't you agree?
That's it for me for now. I am very interested to hear what you think will happen in 2006, so drop me a note or respond on the Spin Board, and let me know!
Happy holidays, everybody!
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- Cory is president and managing partner for Catalyst SF. Contact him here.
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