While none of the major forecasts for retail spending in the upcoming holiday season has been exactly jolly, the latest prediction is downright depressing: Brand Keys says it expects to see sales decline by some 5%. Based on a survey of 16,000 consumers across all nine census regions, the New York-based brand and customer loyalty research consultancy finds that 35% say they plan to spend less on this year's shopping-- shelling out an average of about $775. That estimate is decidedly more downbeat than projections recently released by the National Retail Federation, which is predicting a small increase of 1.9%, with shoppers spending an average of $832.36 on holiday-related shopping. The International Council of Shopping Centers just released its forecast, calling for a gain of 1.7%. And last week, NPD Group predicted flat-to-declining sales. In addition to a more dour outlook, Brand Keys also notes some key psychographic trends. While consumers consistently want to be seen as "wise shoppers," the study notes, they are feeling that imperative more keenly than ever this year, with 20% more of them planning to spend their dough in discount stores, 35% more shopping online, and 20% more using catalogs. The big losers will be specialty stores, with 33% fewer people planning to shop there, and 5% less shopping at department stores. Consumers in this survey say they will be less likely to buy consumer electronics as gifts, down 13%. But 15% more say they plan to buy gift cards. Brand Keys also reports that almost two-thirds of the consumers in the survey (60%) say they have already started shopping, looking for bargain gifts well before the traditional Thanksgiving kickoff period.
The arrival of Nintendo's Wii Music in stores this week sets the stage for a battle of the music video "games" this holiday season, as the new Wii Music takes on the latest versions of Activision's three-year-old "Guitar Hero" (Guitar Hero World Tour) and EA's year-old "Rock Band" ("Rock Band 2"). In recent research from NPD Group, 22% of consumers said they plan to give video games as gifts this holiday season--ranking behind apparel, toys, movies, books and electronics, but ahead of accessories, music, food and fragrances. Last year, according to NPD, music game titles accounted for some 12% of the total $9.5 billion in video game sales--or $1.2 billion. The figure for music game sales was only $132 million in 2005, but has already reached $896 billion this year. NPD does not make full-year projections. Wii Music also becomes the third element in Nintendo's strategic Wii Series, joining Wii Sports--which launched with the interactive game console in 2006--and Wii Fit, released earlier this year. These three games are playable only on the Wii platform, unlike third party-distributed games like "Guitar Hero" and "Rock Band," which also have versions for Sony's PlayStation and Microsoft's Xbox 360. "It's too early to say just how successful Wii Music will be, but first-party Wii titles tend to do well on the sales front," says David Riley, director at NPD Group, adding: "While there are definite advantages to exclusive content, it's obvious that cross-platform titles--when they're as successful as these two properties--will benefit gamers, retailers, publishers and manufacturers. On www.wiimusic.com, Wii general producer and famed video game designer (Mario, Donkey Kong, etc.) Shigeru Miyamoto describes Wii Music as "not quite a game and not quite an instrument." Rather than using controllers that look like instruments, as with "Guitar Hero" and "Rock Band," Wii Music players use the motion-sensitive Wii Remote and a "Nunchuk" controller to mimic the hand and finger motions they would use with more than 60 instruments--from bowing a violin to striking a vibraphone to plucking a sitar. Less strictly rock-oriented than the competition, Wii Music allows up to four players to jam together while rearranging more than 50 included songs that range from classic rock to Beethoven to "La Cucaracha" to Nintendo's own Super Mario Bros. theme. Also unlike the others, Wii Music does not have a competitive scoring mechanism. Of course, instruments alone do not make up the total music experience. For the budding singers out there, Xbox 360 on Wednesday announced an exclusive karaoke-like title called "Lips." Available in mid-November just in time for holiday parties, it includes two motion-sensitive microphones. Users can play a variety of games as they sing along with 40 included songs--including the original music video, lyrics and scoring--from artists ranging from Johnny Cash and Alicia Keys to Young MC and the Ramones. Additional songs will be available via download.
If one 6,000-person Alaskan burg can spawn a vice presidential nominee, why can't another help build a brand? Unilever has turned to Kodiak, Alaska, (pop. 6,000) resident Petal Ruch to help spread the word about Vaseline Clinical Therapy Lotion, a prescription-strength moisturizer available over the counter. As part of the promotion, Unilever enlisted Ruch to try the lotion and pass it along to anyone she felt needed it. According to the company, Ruch passed it along to 1,000 Kodiak residents in the first two weeks. "The concept behind the campaign was to let the product's efficacy speak for itself," said Fernando Machado, global brand director for Vaseline, in a press release. "Our belief was if people who live in extreme weather conditions could find relief for their dry skin, then who better to inspire the rest of the country to prescribe new Vaseline Clinical Therapy lotion to themselves and others?" To communicate the effort, Unilever set up a Web site, www.prescribethenation.com. Through pop-up graphics, a visitor can see people who have used the lotion and how many people they have passed it along to. Most of those pop-ups also include a video of the person extolling the virtues of the lotion before passing it on. The program is also communicated via television and print commercials. The company spent 19 days in the town filming nearly 200 hours of documentary-style footage for the advertising campaign. The spots were produced by advertising agency Bartle Bogle Hegarty in New York in partnership with Radical Media. According to a Unilever representative, the state auditioned towns around Alaska long before the state (and its relatively small towns) were thrust into the spotlight with Republican presidential candidate John McCain's choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his running mate. Kodiak was chosen for the word-of-mouth program because of its harsh conditions, scenery and tight-knit community, according to the company.
ConAgra Foods' Healthy Choice brand is going all-out on the interactive entertainment, celeb and media exposure fronts for the integrated marketing campaign behind its launch of Fresh Mixers lunch meals. The campaign includes a professional improvisation troupe performing online, TV commercials from a noted film director, a product placement on "Ugly Betty" and an Ivanka Trump blog. Fresh Mixers, now in stores, are shelf-stable (storable in office drawers) meals made from premium ingredients such as extra virgin olive oil, wine reductions, fire-roasted vegetables and Ultragrain-flour pasta. According to ConAgra, the technology behind the meals enables the starch ingredients and sauces to be separated during storage and preparation to preserve the "locked-in" flavor and texture of both, producing a fresh taste upon preparation. Harried office workers need about five minutes to microwave the pasta or rice, then add the sauce and meat. Members of an unidentified "professional comedy improvisation cast" will be featured as part of an innovative, interactive online element, dubbed "The Working Lunch." The improv pros will join actors (who are also featured in the campaign's TV commercials) in skits and to improvise in real time in response to sketch themes and directions provided by office workers who have logged on during lunch hour to join in the fun. The tagline for the Working Lunch microsite/online events, which start at noon on Nov. 12, is: "Finally--the office meeting you control." Furthermore, the series of five television commercials, featuring a cast of office-worker characters in humorous takes on typical workplace scenarios (which, of course, involve the use/benefits of Fresh Mixers), have been directed by Nicholas Stoller, who directed the comedy film "Forgetting Sarah Marshall." In addition, on Tuesday, Healthy Choice staged two simultaneous "Lunch Trade" events in Chicago's financial district and midtown Manhattan inviting office workers to break free from their "boring lunch routines" and sample Fresh Mixers. The New York sampling event was held outside the Grace Building--in close proximity to the offices of The Wall Street Journal and Hearst Corp., among other corporate hives--and was pre-promoted by Ivanka Trump. Prior to the sampling events, Trump (whose executive roles in dad Donald's enterprises apparently keep her hopping) posted daily praise of the "convenient, fresh-tasting and easy to store in my desk drawer" benefits of Fresh Mixers and replied to comments/queries on a dedicated blog (www.alunchtrade.com). PR efforts led to traffic-driving articles mentioning the blog in Advertising Age and The New York Times, among other outlets. The events drew at least 10,000 office-worker samplers, according to ConAgra brand director Paula Ford. Healthy Choice also is not scrimping on the media placement bucks for the campaign. The television commercials, which began airing Oct. 6, will run "fairly continuously" through the next six to eight months on both cable and top primetime network shows, including "Biggest Loser," "Dancing With the Stars" and "Ugly Betty," Ford told Marketing Daily. Also, last week, a product placement had one of Ugly Betty's characters "interacting" with Fresh Mixers. The Fresh Mixers line is designed to be a healthy, tasty and low-cost ($3.49) alternative to leftovers and takeout for office workers who, much research has shown, are increasingly brown-bagging it to save both time and money--particularly in the current economy. The meals' technology is the same used in Healthy Choice Café Steamers, a launch that was the best-selling new food/beverage product in this year's first half, according to Information Resources Inc. As for the campaign, ConAgra's take was that it was "very important to get trials out the door, but also to get consumers engaged with the product and coming back to it," says Ford--hence the interactive online lunchtime component and series of episodic TV commercials. In-store, ConAgra is also going beyond the standard shelf-talkers and displays, to invest in eye-catching, "breakthrough" display units, Ford reports.
Chevrolet has sponsored the World Series for the past two years to promote its Silverado pickup truck and Malibu sedan. This time around, the GM brand will use the series to promote its newest crossover vehicle, the Chevy Traverse. The effort, comprising TV, game venue and digital efforts, includes two TV spots for Traverse--one of which debuted Wednesday night, plus ads for Chevrolet Silverado and a Chevy brand spot that extends its "Gas friendly to gas free" fuel economy positioning. The new Traverse spot, which aired during the Chevy Pre-Game Show and Game One on Fox, is suggestive of the Spanish film "Pan's Labyrinth." In the 30-second ad, a Minotaur marches through a forest past nymphs, satyrs, unicorns and other fantastical beasts. What stops him in his tracks, however, is a Traverse parked in a clearing. The bull-headed creature approaches, peers in the window and kicks the proverbial tires, while a voiceover touts features like the vehicle's eight-passenger capacity, and 24-mpg rating. "It's not a myth ... it's everything you ever wished for, and then some." The ads are by Austin and El Paso, Texas-based SandersWingo (Chevy's African-American and urban AOR); Detroit-based Campbell-Ewald is Chevy's general market AOR. SandersWingo also did creative for Traverse ads this fall starring R&B star Mary J. Blige. Those ads are running on Black Entertainment Television and BET J, TBS, MTV and VH1 Soul and VH1 Hip-Hop Honors. Print ads featuring the Traverse and Blige appear in the November and December issues of Ebony, Essence, Odyssey Colour, Sister-to-Sister and Vibe magazines; the November issues of American Legacy, Black Enterprise and Gospel Truth; and the December issues of O and Heart & Soul. Other placements and partnerships may be announced. Chevrolet will also advertise Traverse in the World Series game program, and two of the vehicles will be on display at the series venues, St. Petersburg, Fla.'s Tropicana Field and Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Also, messaging for the vehicle will flash on home plate signage, in video billboards and other areas visible to TV cameras. The campaign also includes the Web site WorldSeries.com/chevy, where one can sign up to win a trip to the 2009 All Star Game. The Web site also has video that features Fox Sports announcer Jeanne Zelasko, who is hosting the Chevy Pre-Game Show. In the videos she does a vehicle walk-around to tout specific features. Chevrolet is also sponsoring the "Chevrolet Player of the Game" segment World Series's Most Valuable Player awards--in which the winner gets a 2010 Chevy Camaro--which launches next spring. In Game Three of the Series, MLB and Chevy will name the national winner of the 2008 Roberto Clemente Award Presented by Chevy. General Motors was late to the crossover game, rolling out the GMC Acadia in 2006, followed by the Buick Enclave and Saturn Outlook. Still, the $29,000 vehicle--which GM begins selling next month, and started advertising during the Beijing Olympics--stands to drive sales by pulling consumers out of fuel-hungry traditional SUVs, say analysts. "I think they will get a lot of buyers from [truck-based] SUVs, and from minivans--from anyone who needs a family passenger mover," says Haig Stoddard, analyst with the Detroit office of Lexington, Mass.-based marketing firm Global Insight. He adds that GM is likely to produce some 160,000 Traverses per year out of its plant in Spring Hill, Tenn. "So, I think it's reasonable volume; it will be a slightly lower-cost alternative to [siblings] like the Buick Enclave and GMC Acadia." Stoddard adds that Traverse may also fill a gap left when the company stops building the TrailBlazer SUV this year, and Ford the Explorer next year. "I think as GM and Ford pull out of sport-ute market that should help their volume." Says Jim Hossick, senior consultant at AutoPacific: "There isn't a good market for anything now, but in terms of share of industry, something like a Traverse will do just fine."
While the Limited Brands' Victoria's Secret has taken its lumps, like most mall-based retailers, the company's CEO says its revitalization of the brand is on track, and that this season's holiday offerings are among its best ever. "We have to acknowledge the challenging environment," says Sharen Jester Turney, CEO and president of the Victoria's Secret Megabrand and Intimate Apparel, speaking to investors in a meeting that was webcast. "But we've strengthened our brand. Our focus is on delivering superior emotional content, and we won't be distracted from that--no matter what the environment is." Saying that the brand beat its expectations for spring, she says it is headed into the holiday season with "one of our best assortments-- and best channel experiences--ever. We'll be delivering newness and superior emotional content, both in products and in experience." Earlier this year, Turney conceded that VS had become too young, and too sexy. Since then, the company has built on its core positioning as a leader in bras, focusing on research that shows most American women see themselves as on a never-ending quest for a bra that fits correctly. Among the new offerings are the All-New Miracle Bra, with more pushup than ever, and the BioFit Lace bra. "We've also reinvented sleepwear to make it more sophisticated, and between 20 and 30% of our beauty assortment is entirely new," she says. In addition, "we've achieved a major milestone in launching the entire site in Spanish. We know our brand has global appeal, and this will better serve Spanish-speaking customers in the U.S. and around the world, reaching an audience we already know loves us." Like many retailers, Victoria's Secret has been squeezed by mall-averse consumers, who are cutting back on clothing purchases, and it has posted more than a year straight of monthly sales declines. Turney says the chain--a division of Limited Brands, based in Columbus, Ohio--is in an enviable position, "and one of the most dominant and desirable brands in the world. We are the industry leader in bras and panties," she says. "We are the authority on sexy." In the coming months, she says, the chain will continue to explore new avenues in swimwear, lifestyle lingerie, higher-end beauty products, VSX, and its sport line, as well as gifting and accessories.
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