It could have been disastrous in comparison to strong 2002 ad results, but November proved to be kind to the newspaper industry. Newspapers didn't see the same level of political spending as it did in November 2002. It also continued to suffer from poor help-wanted advertising. And general-market retail advertising fell off the map in many areas of the country, as traditionally strong newspaper advertisers found themselves in a pitched battle with discount retailers. But November was slightly positive for publicly traded newspaper companies, according to an analysis of revenue data by the MediaDailyNews. Ten publicly traded newspaper companies saw their advertising revenues rise 3 percent to $1.296 billion in November compared to the same period a year ago. The newspaper industry was helped by an extra Sunday in the month - and Sundays are key days for newspaper advertising, particularly shopping inserts. A MediaDailyNews analysis found that in the 11 months reported so far in 2003, the newspaper industry had been able to sustain a 3 percent gain in overall ad revenues, to $13.17 billion. With the exception of Knight Ridder, every other publicly traded newspaper company saw increases in advertising revenues from low- to high single digits in November and year-to-date. Knight-Ridder advertising revenues were down 1 percent in November 2003 and flat year-to-date. Retail revenues were up 2 percent in November, though that number may be misleading because not all companies report data. National ad revenues rose 6 percent and classified, which as been dragged down since 2001 by poor help-wanted showings, rose 4 percent nonetheless.
With improved reality ratings at its broadcast TV network and its recently approved merger with DirecTV, Wall Street analysts are boosting their outlook for Fox. In a report released last week, analysts at Blaylock & Partners said Fox, which is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange, has excellent long-term prospects for growth. Blaylock said that Fox has the almost the best prospects among the major media companies. "Fox's asset mix is weighed to higher-growth media segments such as cable programming and filmed entertainment, and we believe the company should continue to take share within these segments in the foreseeable future," Blaylock & Partners said in its report. "We also expect Fox to use its control of DirecTV to launch new networks and leverage the costs of expensive sports programming." The report predicts that Fox's overall revenues will rise 7 percent in 2004, led by strong CPM increases at its ad-supported networks and its owned-and-operated stations. While the report acknowledges that Fox's broadcast TV ratings have been lackluster so far this year, it expects things will begin to improve. It cites the success of "The Simple Life," and notes that next month Fox's blockbuster "American Idol" will return for a third season in the back half of the season. Yet Fox's strong start to the 2003-04 TV season (helped by strong baseball performance) have slid since then, down 12 percent in adults 18-49.