The 2004-05 upfront sales pitch season offically ended Thursday night with Fox's glitzy, star-studded event. Here, in case you haven't beeen keeping score, are MediaDailyNews' grades for the major upfront sales presentations. Fox Just as last year, "American Idol" opened the show with another live, coast-to-coast singalong between former and current Idol contestants. Even before Entertainment President Gail Berman took the stage Thursday afternoon, Fox's impact was felt in its nearly 52-week schedule as almost every other broadcast network scrambled to try to prove it was moving in that direction too. Berman & Co. might have laid the revolution a bit thick--"There are no rules. This is Fox"--but you might forgive a little bragging. Fox is leading the pack here. Fox nimbly navigated a potential minefield in explaining its three separate premiere periods. Sales chief Jon Nesvig, bless his heart, only showed a handful of charts. And even though Fox has its own billionaire reality-show star in Virgin founder Richard Branson, Fox (thankfully) just ignored Donald Trump. But sadly, there were few yucks in its "American Idol" takeoff starring the ad sales crew. Grade: B+. UPN "America's Next Top Model" is UPN's "American Idol," and the network wove the show--and scantily clad Tyra Banks--throughout the hour-and-a-half event Thursday morning at Madison Square Garden. An energetic Usher opened the show and introduced CBS/UPN chief Leslie Moonves. Moonves gave way to Dawn Ostroff. With a genuine potential hit on their hands in "Kevin Hill" along with two runs of "America's Top Model" and comedies that are really cooking, it's hard not to be optimistic along with them. Quick, well-produced show, although it fell a bit on the "America's Top Model" satire. Grade: B. CBS Easily the gold standard of network upfront presentations, radiating class from the choice of venue (Carnegie Hall) to every well-chosen moment. And while CBS has been scored by NBC in the past, it punched back--hard-- this year, never missing an opportunity to beat up on the Peacock, Fox, and ABC. Terrific production values, its musical number (courtesy of Beatles look-alikes) and its Les Moonves-in-a-bar scene far and away the best of the broadcast network's spoofs. A few too many charts. Capped with a performance of "The Who," which may skew older--but, like CBS, they know their business. Grade: A. ABC Started slow, but built interest and laughs. No charts to show, as the numbers don't look so good right now. But for only 29 days in their jobs, network executives Anne Sweeney and Stephen McPherson acquitted themselves well. McPherson won points right away for dispensing with the usual network unveiling, instead letting the shows speak for themselves. Most of them did. Gets points for keeping Disney lightning rod Michael Eisner out of the spotlight (only mentioned once, at the beginning), for being honest about how it plans to dig itself out of the hole it finds itself in, and for letting Jimmy Kimmel give his own network a sharp, sometimes savage beating. Grade: B+. Univision While it lacked some of the energy and cohesiveness of recent year's past, Univision nonetheless delivered a convincing message that it will continue to dominate the fastest growing segment of the TV advertising marketplace. The big weakness was the incessant references to the "experimentation" of unnamed competitors. Grade: B+ The WB Last year's upfront presentation was a lot like its season: Not the best effort. This year's was much improved from the very beginning, when Lenny Kravitz and his band rocked the Garden. A silly but funny sequence featuring three WB sales executives. Contrite about its recent shortcomings, but also renewed its commitment to improving. Classy presentations of the cast. For once, no wayward actors. Grade: A- NBC The longest upfront--a fact not lost on the other networks. Started with "The Apprentice"--and, by rough count, spent about 50 minutes explaining why Thursday nights won't be a disaster, but instead will be better than ever. Twenty-two minutes was showing the "Joey" pilot. While "Joey" seemed generally well-received, a "Father of the Pride" cut evoked nervous chatter and only polite applause. NBC's gambit of showing Siegfried & Roy blessing the picture may not have worked the way they wanted it to. Conan O'Brien roughed up NBC on going ahead with the show. The sales team's spoof (with Donald Trump) was funny, and tweaked Moonves and The WB. If NBC Universal chief Jeff Zucker ever gets tired of running a network, he's got a future ahead of him as an on-air host. Grade: A-. MTV Networks In just two years, probably the slickest upfront presentation in television: A strong, well-crafted message, original thinking, awesome spoofs, and a tongue-in-cheek delivery. A lot of networks, but it doesn't feel that way, even with a diverse celebrity list that included Muhammad Ali, Jon Stewart, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Willard and Nick Lachey, and Jessica Simpson. An odd moment or two, such as Walter Cronkite following a performance by Alicia Keys. Awesome performances by Sugar Hill Gang and Fleetwood Mac. Grade: A. TBS/TNT Sweltering, uncomfortable venue. Solid show, making the most of "Sex and the City" with a smart, funny takeoff with the Turner Networks executive team and the "one television world" riff. Grade: A-. Bravo Well-done presentation, with appearances by The Fab Five, Matt Damon and Ben Affleck, Cirque du Soleil. Channel eager to position itself as edgy. Dance performance left some in crowd scratching their heads. Grade: B+ Lifetime Entertaining, issue-oriented on the channel's 20th anniversary. Musical guest Ashanti drawn by Lifetime's activism, which plays a huge role in the channel. Grade: B+ The Weather Channel Bright, fun, surprising ... and with the exception of UPN's snagging of Usher, the only network to time its upfront to find a musical act (Maroon 5) climbing the charts. More of a party than anything else, TWC executives came in with one of the shortest upfront presentations this year--less than 20 minutes. Great food, fun surroundings, and genuine news for advertising planners and buyers: Addressable advertising. Grade: A/A-. Adult Swim Cartoon Network picked a trendy downtown nightclub (The Knitting Factory) and an awesome DJ (Dangermouse) to kick off its first solo upfront. Also light on the presentation (more of a celebration), this one clocked less than 15 minutes and was hard to hear through the noise. Grade: B. Kids WB/Cartoon Network Smart, fun, and held at midtown Manhattan's Chelsea Piers. Grade: B. Nickelodeon Well-done, though a bit stagey--with performance pieces by preteens and teenagers talking about their "lives." Surprise performance by former "You Can't Do That on Television" co-star Alanis Morissette. Grade: A-.
With Madison Avenue poised to commit more than $15 billion in advertising budgets for the 2004-05 TV season, a new report reveals some startling incongruities in the way advertisers allocate their media dollars. The report, "Investment Considerations For The Communications Industry," which was just released by Veronis Suhler Stevenson, doesn't include any new data, but it is the first time the investment banker has compiled such a long-range perspective of media industry statistics, including 30-years of ad spending and consumer media usage patterns, that suggest the advertising marketplace has grown increasingly distorted. What it shows, is that Madison Avenue has not kept pace with dramatic shifts in media consumption patterns. While consumers have expanded their media repertoire, embracing newer media such as cable TV and the Internet, the ad industry has continued to reinvest a disproportionate share of its budgets into eroding media, especially print media like newspapers and magazines, but also network TV. Conversely, radio consumption patterns have proven remarkably stable over this long period, but still attracts only a minor share of U.S. advertising budgets. On a holistic note, the report does show that broadcast TV ad spending does finally appear to be approaching a market equilibrium, making it the only major medium to strike a balance between the share of time consumers spend with media and the share of budgets advertisers allocate to that medium. At its base year of 1977, the report shows that broadcast TV ad budgets had a two-to-one deficit versus their share of time consumers spent with broadcast TV outlets, both stations and networks. By 2007, VSS predicts broadcast TV will close that gap to nearly two percentage points (see table below). While radio broadcasters have closed their gap slightly over the past 30 years, VSS anticipates radio stations and networks will still have an advertising budget deficit of nearly three to one by 2007. Cable, the fastest growing segment of the traditional media, ironically has taken a dominant position in terms of the share of time consumers spend with TV, but still reap an consumer time-to-advertising ratio of nearly four-to-one. Interestingly, the Internet has done a much better job of closing its gap in a relatively short period of time, though it still handicapped by a margin of about two-to-one. Conversely, print media - especially newspapers - maintain an advantageous bias of consumer-time versus ad budget ratios. Despite some erosion in overall market share over the past 30 years, VSS projects newspapers will reap a 25.7 percent share of U.S. ad spending in 2007, but will only have a 5.2 percent share of the time consumers actually spend with media. While not as egregious, consumer magazines will have an advantageous ad budget bias of about two-to-one. While there are many reasons for the market shares, including the perceived communications effectiveness of some media, as well as the unique dynamics of individual advertising markets for specific media, the long, historical view provides a new reality check at a time when some major marketers are seriously rethinking their communications mix. Shares Of Consumer Time/Ad Spending On Ad-Supported Media ---1977--- ---1997---- ----2002---- ----2007---- Time *Ad $ Time *Ad $ Time *Ad $ Time *Ad $ Broadcast 51.5% 25.3% 33.9% 25.0% 26.3% 23.2% 23.7% 21.4% Cable Nets 0.1% 0.0% 19.0% 4.2% 25.3% 6.4% 26.4% 7.2% Radio 35.7% 8.8% 34.4% 9.7% 33.2% 11.3% 34.2% 12.0% Internet 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.7% 5.1% 3.5% 6.8% 3.7% Newspapers 8.0% 35.7% 6.8% 29.8% 5.9% 25.8% 5.2% 25.7% Magazines 4.7% 6.5% 5.0% 7.1% 4.2% 6.4% 3.7% 6.4% (Hrs/$) 2,735 $30.1 2,734 $138.7 2,993 $171.1 3,207 $231.9 Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson's "Investment Considerations For The Communications Industry."*Ad market shares also include regional cable TV, weekly newspapers, business magazines, outdoor and Yellow Pages not itemized in this table. Ad $ totals in billions.
UPN saved the underperforming "Star Trek: Enterprise" from oblivion Thursday morning, but left hanging the fate of "Amish in the City." "Enterprise" lost its 8 p.m. Wednesday time slot in favor of the new season of "America's Next Top Model," the Tyra Banks-hosted reality show that was a genuine hit for the network. "Enterprise," whose fate has been hotly contested by Star Trek fans and others for weeks, will land at 9 p.m. Fridays beginning in September. UPN President Dawn Ostroff said the network had heard from many Star Trek fans who had wanted to keep the three-year-old show on the air. She pointed also to a USA Today poll, in which "Enterprise" topped the list of shows on the bubble that fans wanted to see renewed. But the network wasn't willing to return the show to Wednesdays. "We weren't going to grow with 'Star Trek' there on Wednesday night," said Leslie Moonves, who is also responsible for UPN programming. Network executives didn't say this, but Friday appeared to be the only open day on the schedule. Ostroff said she hoped that "Enterprise" would do as well in the time period as "The X Files" did in the same spot for several years when it was on Fox. And speaking of mysteries, the controversial "Amish in the City" reality show isn't on the fall schedule. UPN executives have been unusually tight-lipped about the program, which drew the ire of rural advocates and Congressmen for what they felt was the exploitation of the Amish religion and rural people. In a news conference Thursday afternoon following the upfront presentation, no one would comment on whether the show was dead, or whether it would appear as a mid-season or summer replacement series. "We're only taking about the fall schedule," said Moonves. "'Kevin Hall'--let's talk about that," referring to one of two new dramas on UPN. Thursday's non-announcement didn't give opponents of "Amish in the City" much reason for optimism, as they know full well that until the show is officially killed it could still appear. Dee Davis, president of the Whitesburg, Ky.-based Center for Rural Strategies, said Thursday afternoon that the coalition against "Amish in the City" wasn't going to rest until they knew for sure that it wouldn't appear. The coalition took out a quarter-page ad in the Philadelphia Inquirer urging UPN and Viacom to banish "Amish in the City." Davis made a courtesy call to the company, letting them know that the ad would run--but didn't hear them say they wouldn't be going ahead with the show. Davis said that there are rumors that the show is continuing to cast. "We felt like it made sense to go forward" with the ad campaign, Davis said. "We're still waiting to hear" about the fate of "Amish in the City."
Nielsen is no stranger to controversy, but the latest ruckus it found itself in the middle of was more contentious than usual, largely because it got the attention of Congress and because it was so public. Over the past month doubts were raised about whether Nielsen's sample was representative of the Black and Hispanic populations, especially in the New York DMA. THE BEST LAID PLANS Nielsen had planned to switch how it measures TV viewing in Los Angeles, Chicago and New York from diaries & household meters to local people meters (LPM) during the first four months of 2004. However, because of difficulties with sample recruitment in LA and Chicago, Nielsen decided it was best to delay their turn-on dates to June. New York, however, was experiencing no problems and was on schedule to begin LPM measurement on April 8. Then all hell broke loose. FOX FIGHTS DIRTY Issues about the Black and Hispanic samples arose from two different sources. First, a study on the Hispanic market, conducted by a largely unknown company named Rincon, used question-able methodology and produced findings very different from Nielsen's Hispanic sample. Meanwhile, a community group in New York City, allegedly instigated by the Fox Station Group, expressed alarm over a ratings report, based on LPM test ratings from February, showing large declines in ratings among African Americans, especially for African American-targeted programs airing on the local Fox affiliate. Fox became extremely agitated about these declines and accused Nielsen of under-counting Blacks. The Fox Station Group, headed by Ruper Murdoch's son Lachlan, informed Nielsen it would take whatever actions necessary to derail the roll-out of local peoplemeters in New York. It hired a PR firm to organize protests among minority groups and to plant negative stories that aired on Fox-owned Channel 5 and in the Murdoch-owned New York Post (sample headline: "Nailing Nielsen"). These stories were picked up by other media outlets. Since the public isn't familiar with the statistical approaches used for sample design or the techniques used by Nielsen to capture viewing, it was relatively easy for Fox to shape the story to suit its purposes. NO PROBLEMS WITH NIELSEN'S SAMPLE To those not familiar with how Nielsen gathers its data (probably 99% of the US), it appeared something was seriously amiss. However, most of us in the Media Research community (Carat included) have confidence in the soundness of Nielsen's sampling techniques and in its ability to put a representative sample in place. The Media Rating Council (MRC) sees to it that the quality of Nielsen's research is monitored and suggests adjustments or improvements when deemed necessary. Furthermore, Nielsen makes extra efforts to recruit Blacks & Hispanics (e.g., larger cash incentives are given compared to White panel members) and, in fact, over-samples them. Additionally, Nielsen is putting into place procedures to measure viewing by Asian-Americans. A DIFFERENT, BUT BETTER MEASUREMENT Changes in ratings between the diary method and peoplemeter are to be expected because they collect data in completely different ways. The diary is a relic from a time, long ago, when viewing options were basically limited to ABC, CBS & NBC, and no one had remote control. The diary, which depends largely on a diary keeper's memory, is woefully inadequate for accurately cap-turing viewing in today's dynamic viewing environment of 100+ stations and constant channel switching. We continue to believe, as we did in the 1980's when the peoplemeter first started providing national TV ratings, that peoplemeters provide better information. NIELSEN TAKES THE HIGH ROAD Delaying the start date of LPM measurement in the New York DMA by two months wasn't an admission by Nielsen that there was a problem, but rather a gesture to politicians that it was willing to take a step back and delay roll-out until Congress and other appropriate parties were reassured. We applaud Nielsen for delaying New York's LPM service until June 3 because it defused its detractors and showed that the company wanted to make sure everyone was comfortable before moving ahead with LPMs. Additionally, Nielsen was also concerned that the very public nature of Fox's & Congress' questioning might negatively impact its ability to recruit households to serve on their panel in the future, nationally as well as locally. Therefore, the 2-month delay has given it time to develop its own PR campaign to respond to Fox's charges. It turns out that community groups may even assist Nielsen by encouraging Black and Hispanic households to cooperate in the future. Lastly, Fox's tantrum is a bit curious since the Fox network supports the people meter for its national ratings and the Fox affiliate in Boston also supports local people meters in that market. Additionally, the Fox News Channel will likely benefit as most cable networks do when people meters report viewing. IN CLOSING Although we've often had issues with how Nielsen conducts business with us, this is one instance when we support the company, not only for its roll-out of local peoplemeters, but for its reasoned response under pressure.