Four months after Karen Jacobs stepped down as head of its print investment group--the largest print media buying unit in the United States--Starcom has named a successor: Andrew Swinand, a 36-year-old former vice president-group client leader at the agency who has big plans for publishers. Following his appointment, Swinand Tuesday told MediaDailyNews that his focus will be on research initiatives that affect print on a macro level, while Starcom USA Media Director Brenda White will continue running the day-to-day operations of print planning and buying within Starcom's Magazine Investment Group (MIG). Swinand's promotion completes a top-level restructuring of Starcom's print division. White was promoted to her position earlier this year. Then, several weeks after White's promotion, Jacobs decided to leave the company to become a full-time mom. Tuesday--his first day on his new job--Swinand was frank about the print industry's need for innovative thinking, and promised to lead the industry toward improvement. "Marketers are demanding a higher degree of accountability," he said. "If print doesn't embrace this, it's going to be left behind." Swinand said that print should look to the online medium as an example of how to best approach this new world, "focusing on output objectives rather than input." Both White and Swinand agreed that the magazine business is at a critical juncture in terms of its role in advertising, a role that Swinand says is under-appreciated. "Print is the ultimate targeting mechanism, given the way that titles are segmented," he said. To better leverage those targeting capabilities, publishers may need to bend a bit on the 'church and state' division between advertising and editorial, according to Swinand. He even compared the medium to "Catholic school," with its mix of general and religious education. "The industry has been slow to embrace this," he said. Print's biggest problem is complacency, says Swinand. "Too often, magazines say, 'I've got my core group of customers; I don't really need to change.'" Yet despite the many issues facing the industry, Swinand believes magazines may benefit from a growing dissatisfaction among clients with TV. "I think print is going to explode," he said. Starcom hopes to drive such an explosion through investing in proprietary research. According to Swinand, Starcom A.C.E. (Accountability, Connectivity, Engagement) framework, which he will monitor personally, will measure reader engagement on a deeper level than has been done in the past.
Describing the expansion of new consumer media technologies as a sort of "big bang," a new report from a well-regarded researcher suggests that the pace of change may have become greater than the TV industry can readily adapt to. If the report strikes an alarmist note, it's not one that can be easily dismissed as the sensationalistic view of a one-shot study, but is the culmination of 24 years of semi-annual research on proliferation of household media technologies. What's changed, says David Tice, vice president of Knowledge Networks/SRI and author of the report, is the pace of change. That's evident from some of the data points (see table below) contained in the just-released Spring 2004 edition of KN/SRI's Home Technology Monitor, a telephone survey of thousands of consumers, which the company has been conducting twice a year since 1980. While no single technology stands out yet as a transforming development, the report suggests that the rapid acceleration of a combination of new technologies, ranging from digital video recorders (DVR) to digital cable or satellite penetration to broadband and wireless Internet access, collectively are changing the nature of media in the average U.S. household. And it's no longer just early adopters, says Tice, noting that it is now "transforming the media use habits of mainstream consumers." Perhaps most importantly for marketers and ad agencies is that unlike new media options of the past, which created new opportunities for delivering advertising messages, many of the newest gadgets are giving consumers greater control over their media content, including advertising. Tice says the impact is being compounded by the fact that many of these technologies are not currently reflected in Nielsen's TV audience measurement system, which biases "technically difficult" households. "This is troubling news," says Tice, "because these consumers are disproportionately affluent and heavy users of media." Nielsen has already announced plans to begin addressing part of that problem next year, when it will begin incorporating DVR households into its national and local TV ratings samples. Meanwhile, the KN/SRI report paints a portrait of a TV universe under siege from new technologies that no traditional researcher may ever be able to keep apace of. Home Technology Penetration Levels* Digital Digital HDTV/ DVD DVRs Satellite Cable DTV Sets Player Spring '00 0.3% 9.0% NA 0.5% 6.0% Fall '00 0.4% 13.0% 11.0% 1.1% 8.0% Spring '01 0.8% 14.0% 10.0% 1.8% 16.0% Fall '01 0.6% 15.0% 12.0% 1.5% 17.0% Spring '02 1.2% 17.0% 16.0% 2.1% 31.0% Fall '02 1.3% 17.0% 17.0% 3.2% 33.0% Spring '03 1.3% 19.0% 15.0% 4.2% 47.0% Fall '03 1.9% 19.0% 16.0% 4.4% 49.0% Spring '04 3.6% 21.0% 18.0% 5.9% 56.0% Knowledge Networks/SRI 2004 Ownership and Trend Report from the Home Technology Monitor. Spring 2004 base = 2,472 telephone interviews conducted between February and April 2004. *U.S. households.
Razor magazine publisher Richard Botto Tuesday shook up his editorial staff, terminating Editor in Chief Craig Knight and replacing him with himself. Allison Young, previously Razor's managing editor, was also promoted to executive editor and creative director. Botto implied that Knight was not let go based on his work on Razor's editorial product, but rather as a result of some internal conflicts. "It was my opinion that we needed a change at the top. There were several incidents and transgressions that warranted this," he alleged. The shakeup at Razor occurs just as the three-and-a-half-year-old men's title has been generating positive buzz from feature stories in its current issue, which includes a cover story on an outspoken Howard Stern. Circulation and ad revenue have also been on the rise in the past year. Botto said he is pleased with the book's editorial and does not plan major changes. "The editorial mission remains on track," he said. "I am excited for an opportunity to add things from my lifestyle to the magazine." He expressed confidence in his staff's ability to deal with the changes at the top, highlighting Allison Young's role as being key. "She has had a large influence on what Razor had become," he said. Razor will also relocate its editorial group from Toronto to its headquarters in Scottsdale, Ariz., with additional staff to be based at a new editorial bureau in New York later this summer.
Growth in cable television ad revenues will outstrip the broadcast networks, but it's not likely that cable's share of total TV ad dollars will pass broadcast in the next five years, according to a new report issued Tuesday. PricewaterhouseCoopers Entertainment & Media Outlook predicts that the TV ad market will grow 7.6 percent--from $30.7 billion in 2003 to $44.2 billion in 2008. Just this year alone, TV advertising will grow to $34.4 billion, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers. The increase will be strongest in cable, which is forecast to have an 8.1 percent compound annual growth rate during the period compared to 6.5 percent for the broadcast networks. While that's promising news for cable TV, the report finds that the industry will near--but not reach--parity with the broadcast networks within the next five years. In 2003, PricewaterhouseCoopers estimated that $16.6 billion went to broadcast network advertising, compared to $14.1 billion for cable television. In 2004, the report predicts that advertisers will spend $18.6 billion on broadcast and $15.8 billion on cable. It will near an equal share in 2007, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers' estimation, with $20.6 billion going to broadcast TV and $20.2 billion going to cable. But 2008 will end with $22.7 billion in advertising spending for broadcast TV and $21.5 billion for cable TV. The report said that cable is poised to continue gaining share from broadcast, but the cable networks will reach saturation in the near future, causing a moderation of cable networks' growth. At a panel discussion following Tuesday's release of the report, MTV Networks President Mark Rosenthal said it was clear that cable had taken a significant sum of money away from broadcast TV in this year's upfront. He estimated that the cable TV industry took between $600 million and $800 million in advertising orders away from the broadcast networks during the upfront. "This is the famous tipping point everyone was talking about," Rosenthal said. Rosenthal cited how cable TV in general--and MTV Networks in particular--jumped into the marketplace early, ahead of the broadcast networks, as a factor in its success. "We had a really good handle on the pulse of the marketplace," Rosenthal said. As for the other advertising-supported media, PricewaterhouseCoopers seems bullish--although not as high as it was on TV and especially Internet advertising, which is predicted to achieve double-digit growth rates: -- Magazine advertising will hit $25 billion in 2008, a 5.8 percent compound annual growth rate. Consumer magazine advertising is predicted to rise 5.3 percent to $15.1 billion, while business-to-business magazine advertising will increase 6.6 percent to $10 billion in 2008. But that doesn't mean that B-to-B publishers, who have been hit hard since the dot-com and business crash of 2001, should jump for joy. It's still below the heady days of 2000, when B-to-B publishers rang up $10.9 billion in advertising. -- Newspaper advertising is forecast to average a 3.4 percent annual growth rate through 2008, when it will reach $53.2 billion. PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that classified advertising will stabilize but remain sluggish through the period, national advertising will continue to grow, and retail advertising--always key for newspaper publishers--will land somewhere in between. -- Radio and out-of-home, which are tracked together in the report, will also increase. Radio, boosted by an increased interest by national advertisers, is predicted to rise 5.7 percent over five years to $25.7 billion. Out-of-home will reach $7.4 billion in 2008--up 6.2 percent from 2003's $5.5 billion, PricewaterhouseCoopers said. But it was the prediction that radio would grow in the mid-single digits that drew surprise from several industry analysts assembled by PricewaterhouseCoopers to discuss the results. John Tinker, a managing director at ThinkEquity Partners LLC, didn't buy the 5.7 percent growth rate for radio. He said that radio stands to be affected by Internet advertising inventory coming into the market and that a number of big advertisers, such as Wal-Mart, have never used radio. "It will never disappear, but it's hard to see it picking up," Tinker said. Wayne Jackson, global leader of PricewaterhouseCoopers' Entertainment and Media Practice, said that the company was betting that digital and satellite opportunities would add to radio's revenues in the future. "Technology is what we see happening to boost that," Jackson said. Peter Winkler, managing director of PricewaterhouseCoopers's Entertainment and Media Practice, told MediaDailyNews that his company's projections for radio might be higher than some others. But he said that the local advertising component can't be overlooked, as well as the fact that radio is pitching to a captive audience that is spending more time in cars, not less. "Radio is a powerful medium because it can deliver local advertising," Winkler said. Winkler too believes that digital and satellite radio will alter the equation by growing audience. He said he thought the satellite radio model, which has so far used commercial-free streams as a point of differentiation, might change in the future to more of an ad-supported model.
What is the price of our addictions? They are always first to the trough, first in line for everything. When we are not acting out, we are planning how we will act out the very moment we can. A technology reporter -- a woman who works twelve hours a day, six days a week -- told me not long ago how she couldn't wait to shut down her computer at the end of the work day so she could rush home, kick off her shoes and veg out in front of the TV. Probably not too atypical, I thought. I imagined her tearing through traffic like a banshee, knocking old ladies down in the supermarket, and cursing the delay in the express checkout line when the person in line ahead of her is discovered with one item too many. Essentially, she had described a classic addiction pattern of anxiety leading up to a fix, followed by the relief of the fix itself. Anxiety and relief: the rush to relax. Heroin addict, work addict, or media addict -- it's the same exact pattern regardless of the narcotic. I posted my observation on the Einstein's Corner Yahoo Group (see below), and received several interesting responses. One member replied, ". most people I know DREAD the days leading up to their vacation. For a precious few days off, they suffer miserably with anxieties before, during, and after they return to the office. Before -- They try to cram seven days of work into two (as if to apologize for having taken any time "off"); During -- They feel guilty if they don't check their voicemail and email at least three times a day while they site-see in some far-off land; After -- They have hundreds of emails, snail mails, and voice mails awaiting their return." Another said, "I agree completely. I see it in myself and I see it in the thousands of people who work in this three-tower business complex. It is incredible what mind tricks I will play between 4 and 5 to get things wrapped up and find an escape window. It's almost like one of those bad (my opinion) Hollywood movies about two seconds to save the universe and they have to hit the hole just right. It did not used to be that way, but now with everything moving at such a rapid speed, I find it incredible how the days look so different to me. What a difference it makes to pull out of the parking garage at 4:55 rather than 5:05. Oh, and then there is life in the elevators." Now consider what happens when someone goes to sleep each night worrying about the security of their job, then wakes up the next morning to start the day with the exact same concern: "How can I keep my job?" becomes the primary question instead of "How can I do a better job?" Fear becomes the essential motivator instead of accomplishment. Fear drives the anxiety, and the anxiety displaces something else: peace of mind. So now we have a day that begins and ends with anxiety: We can't wait to get to work in order to assure ourselves that we still have a job, then can't wait to get home in order to get our media fix. But the moment the most recent media fix begins to wear thin (for me about five minutes after I turn off the TV or my computer), the anxiety begins to mount again. The only relief from the anxiety is in "doing" at work, and "not doing" at home. But "not doing" at home is increasingly difficult. We find ourselves stealing away to check our email during the commercial breaks. The addiction cycle of anxiety and release always escalates and accelerates; we always need more and we need it more frequently. How can the quality of our work -- not to mention the quality of our lives -- not suffer when fear becomes the primary motivating mechanism? How can the quality of our work not suffer when the pressure to relax -- the pressure to fix -- at the end of the day obfuscates everything else? What is the price of our addictions? What's the price of yours? Send me an email and let me know. Many thanks once again, my friends. Best to you and yours.. Please note: A new Einstein's Corner discussion group has been opened on Yahoo at http://health.groups.yahoo.com/group/einsteinscorner/. The Einstein's Corner discussion group is dedicated to exploring the adverse effects of our addictions to technology and media on the quality of our lives, both at work and at home. Please feel free to drop by and join the discussion.