Most national polls indicate that the 2004 presidential race is extremely close. Some have the Bush/Cheney ticket ahead. Others put the Kerry/Edwards team on top. Some suggest it is a dead heat. But among the nation's media planners and buyers, there is no question which candidate leads. By a margin of nearly two-to-one, media executives would like to see John Kerry elected president versus George W. Bush, according to results of a survey of the MediaPost Advisory Panel conducted online this week by InsightExpress. Nearly two-thirds (61 percent) of the respondents said Kerry was their personal preference for president, versus only 32 percent who cited Bush and 2 percent who chose independent candidate Ralph Nader. Asked which candidate would be better for the ad industry specifically, the ratio of pro-Kerry support was essentially the same--55 percent versus 27 percent for Bush--but the percentage of respondents who said they were unsure was much greater (17 percent). "Preemptive wars, weak dollar policy and high deficits created by [George W. Bush] negatively affect the U.S. economy, which in turn negatively affects advertising," said one Kerry supporter, echoing the main sentiments of other pro-Kerry respondents. "He seems to have a 'hands off' policy, letting the industry regulate itself for the most part," countered a Bush supporter. "I believe that because of [Bush's] policies on economics that consumers will have more spending dollars, and that translates to a favorable environment for advertisers and the advertising industry," chimed another. Some of the respondents expressed surprisingly specific media reasons for their selections, such as the Kerry supporter who said: "Kerry uses the Internet and e-mail quite effectively for outreach and promoting himself and his platform. This is in comparison with Bush, whose reference to the 'Internets' in the debates makes it clear he couldn't appreciate the medium as an advertising environment, let alone understand its capacity as a communication and marketing resource." "No. 2," continued the panelist, "Bush has FCC Chairman [Michael] Powell in his pocket. The new FCC has already tried to divert more power to TV broadcasting moguls, which would work against the benefits of free competition, and end up raising advertising prices and generally stifling the advertising industry. Advertising would be out of the reach of smaller entities." "As media companies are allowed continually to get large, negotiation is becoming more and more difficult," echoed another Kerry supporter. "With the Sinclair Broadcasting controversy, I believe it became more apparent to Senator John Kerry and the general population how much control the large conglomerates can have over the programming in the U.S." In fact, the influence on television programming was a recurring theme among Bush opponents. Said another: "Social conservatives like George Bush limit the type of programming that gets aired, allowing for fewer choices for consumers. Not that HBO should be on the networks, but the shows should deal with more difficult issues that the current climates do not allow." 2004 Presidential Preferences Bush Kerry Nader Other Unsure For overall business climate: 34% 59% 1% 1% 5% For advertising industry: 27% 55% 1% 1% 17% Personal preference: 32% 61% 2% 3% 2% Source: MediaPost Advisory Panel. Base = 202 respondents surveyed online by InsightExpress in October. The split between personal and industry preferences in this year's election was also evident when MediaPost asked which issues were most important in Tuesday's election. While the economy was the biggest issue for both personal and industry reasons, national security was a far more significant issue for media industry executives personally, while industry laws were viewed as being most significant professionally. Other key issues from an industry point of view include industry consolidation, health care, industry regulation, and taxes. While the Bush Administration is seen as giving business in general a much freer hand than Kerry would be expected to, a majority of panelists felt the Bush Administration has done only a fair (23%) or poor (31%) job in terms of the ad industry. What is the most important issue at stake in this election? For The Respondent Personally For The Advertising/Media Industry The Economy: 50% The Economy: 54% National Security: 23% *Industry Laws: 14% Health care: 10% National Security: 7% Other: 7% Industry Consolidation: 6% Education: 3% Health care: 6% Abortion: 3% **Industry Regulation: 6% Same Sex Marriage: 3% Taxes: 5% Immigration: 1% Other: 1% Source: MediaPost Advisory Panel. Base = 202 respondents surveyed online by InsightExpress in October. *Spam, spyware, privacy, etc. **Food, alcohol, kids marketing, indecency, etc.
The Los Angeles Times announced Thursday that both its daily and Sunday circulation declined during the six-month period ending September 30, 2004, in part due to a deliberate decision to reduce the company's reliance on third-party sponsored subscriptions and bulk sales. The newspaper reported an average daily circulation of 902,164 for Monday through Saturday, down 5.6 percent versus last year. Sunday's decline was even larger, as circulation dropped 6.3 percent to 1,292,274. These figures were submitted to the Audit Bureau of Circulations and are subject to audit. In explaining the drop in circulation, besides citing the deliberate reduction in some sales, the Times also cited the impact of the national "Do Not Call" law on telesales operations. "Historically, the Los Angeles Times has been heavily dependent on telemarketing to drive home delivery circulation growth," said publisher John Puerner in a statement. "The September declines primarily reflect the impact of the Do Not Call law." "In addition, we've made a deliberate decision to reduce less profitable circulation, such as third-party sponsored home delivery and single copy bulk sales," added Puerner. While the Times did not mention either the recent slew of circulation scandals or any resulting advertiser pressure, many analysts have predicted recently that newspapers will begin dialing down their usage of third-party acquired subscriptions or bulk subscriptions. These subscriptions often involve the distribution of free newspapers in outlets such as hotels or schools, while technically they counted as paid by the ABC (see Concerns Persist as Preliminary Circulations Are Released, MediaPost Tuesday, Sept. 21, 2004 here ). Analysts believe that in light of the recent scandals, advertisers would begin paying increased scrutiny to these line items on ABC reports. The Time's announcement also highlights an oncoming trend in the newspaper circulation business away from telemarketing and toward more sophisticated customer segmentation and database marketing, which many analysts believe will be the norm in the future. In a memo to employees, Purner said: "We're investing heavily in database marketing systems and capabilities to improve our ability to grow readership and target higher quality circulation through direct mail and other efforts. We're also targeting specific geographic and audience segments where we have the highest potential to increase readership."
Digital copying and downloading have led to a crisis that is threatening the $1.25 trillion business of television, movies, publishing, and software. And, the government has been much too slow in addressing these issues, said Bob Wright, chairman of NBC Universal as he was accepting an award from The Media Institute, a Washington, D.C. organization. Wright received the organization's Freedom of Speech Award Wednesday night. In his overview of the First Amendment, Wright zeroed in on one particular portion: Article 1, Section 8 - the Copyright Clause - which authorizes Congress to grant to "authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries." "This is what enables companies like NBC Universal to invest millions of dollars to transform a creative idea into a movie or television show," he said. "Today, this constitutional protection is under enormous pressure and requires our vigilant attention. I know that The Media Institute will be our ally on this issue, too, which is a threat not only to media, but to a broad cross-section of U.S. industries and export businesses." But Wright was not all doom and gloom. He said that while NBC Universal is eagerly exploring the depths of new technologies to roll out digital, on-demand services. He added that he would like nothing more than to make accessing video as easy as Apple's iPod has made accessing music. But the experience of the recording industry - "decimated by illegal downloads," he said - teaches an important lesson: If the technology isn't managed properly, it has the power to do a lot of damage, "by facilitating theft, not commerce," Wright said. "Already, the economic costs of intellectual property theft are staggering," he said. "According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, it amounts to $250 billion a year - more than the combined global revenues of the nation's top 25 media companies. This represents thousands of jobs, and millions in lost taxes. The best solutions to IP theft will come from technology, not legislation." Wright derided the notion that intellectual property violations are a fair price to pay for the advent of a new digital age. As for potential solutions, he offered up suggestions, such as supporting the House Judiciary Committee's package of antipiracy bills, which Wright argued is "currently in limbo," and developing legal safeguards against illegal peer-to-peer file-sharing. "It is now time for the leadership of the industries involved to come together to find a collaborative solution, so that the long-awaited marriage of technology and content can finally take place," Wright concluded. "The solutions are there. What's needed is the will to develop and implement them."
Sharp Copy Back in June, when Mag Rack talked to Maxim Publisher Rob Gregory, while expressing confidence in eventually dominating the men's category, he said the biggest threat to his business might come from smaller men's titles that could offer a page for a fraction of what Maxim charges. That threat may be coming to fruition. As the industry debates the struggles of the larger men's titles, smaller titles like Razor and the recently launched Giant nip at their heels. "Media buyers are realizing that they can take a huge chunk of their budget for one page, one month, and get a diluted audience--or they can get into six other books that deliver that guy they are trying to reach," said Razor Publisher and Editor in Chief Richard Botto. This year, Razor has been persuasive to such buyers, adding new advertisers such as Ford, State Farm, and BMW, while boasting 130 percent year-over-year advertising growth. Botto believes titles like Razor, which he says can deliver a much more dedicated and concentrated audience, are what the magazine business excels at. Meanwhile, the high-reach driven "laddies" are top-heavy. "[They are] priced out of the market," Botto said. "The numbers don't lie. They are losing newsstand." Maxim is down 16 percent in newsstand sales through June, according to the Audit Bureau of Circulations (sister publication Stuff is down close to 20 percent). Maxim is also down 11 percent in ad pages through September. The formula of hot cover babes and frat jokes may be wearing thin, says Botto. "Things are cyclical," he said. "The repetition of it maybe has worn thin. There may be less desire for people to buy these magazines when you can interchange any month." Meanwhile, Razor appears to be coming into its own as it celebrates its four-year anniversary. Its mix of service, investigative pieces (like this month's story on the transition in the White House from President Clinton to President Bush)--and yes, some pretty girls--is resonating. "We've been staying the course from day one," said Botto. "We've always noticed there is a major gap between the laddie books and Esquire and GQ." Botto said that one of his magazine's secrets is that men actually want to read. "I think there is a huge misconception [about this generation]," he said. "I won't deny that the MTV mentality hasn't spread. I think society overcompensates for that." Deep Thoughts Interested in reading thoughtful essays on the new difficulties in choosing to be a stay-at-home mom (such as "White Collar Quandary, Blue Collar Purgatory")? How about features on the neo-conservative political movement, or Jews and the Republican Party, or profiles on author Irshad Manji, ("The Trouble with Islam") or poems on the Persian Empire? Citizen Culture might be just what you are looking for. Dubbed by its editors as the "Magazine for the Young Intellectual," the recently launched title is meant to serve as a "magazine journalism career launch pad for talented writers, photographers, critics and reviewers, poets and storytellers, as well as production-minded people who have professional skill, but just need a foot in the industry's door." Editor in Chief Jonathon Feit said he came up with the idea for the magazine when he realized how difficult it was for very talented writers to break into the magazine business after being rejected so many times himself. The result has been Citizen Culture, which targets educated, socially involved men and women ages 20-40, while providing a forum for these emerging writers, as well as behind-the-scenes talent. "We've been called the New Yorker for young people," he said. "That's very complimentary, and it's also exactly what we want to be." Feit believes the timing is perfect for the new title, as many men's magazines like Playboy and GQ move away from running longer, intricate pieces in pursuit of the Maxim-crowd. Plus, "women don't have any magazines that offer this." That's important to Feit, who is aiming at a dual readership. So far, circulation is small (around 15,000), but "the market has expanded exponentially," said Feit as word of mouth among writers spreads. In the first two issues, footwear brands Sketchers and 310 Motoring have placed ads, with more to come. President Woods?Travel and Leisure Golf features a cover shot of a glowing, smiling Tiger Woods along with a cover line "Swing Vote Special. President Woods. It could happen." The magazine talks to political analysts in a serious discussion of how an athlete of Woods' popularity could make a run for office. According to the Gallup Organization, no one in the last ten years has had a higher favorability rating than Tiger. Slow Start The debut issue of Life & Style, by our count, carries just three ads (NBC, Oreo, and Kmart). Rodale Promotion Rodale Inc. announced that Jason Brown, Editor of Men's Health South Africa, has been named managing editor of Men's Health International. In his new role, Brown will oversee editorial content for all 31 international editions of Men's Health, reaching 39 countries.
Time Warner Cable has consolidated its advertising account with WPP Group's Ogilvy & Mather, New York, as the company prepares to unveil a series of new services. The billing is estimated at $80 million. Over the next few months, New York-based TWC plans to offer a bundle of advanced video, high-speed online and digital phone services to its nearly 11 million customers nationwide. TWC had previously spread its advertising needs among several smaller agencies. "We're excited about this new partnership with Ogilvy & Mather and look forward to building a world class brand to capture the momentum of our technological leadership," said Chuck Ellis, chief marketing officer for TWC. "We want to communicate the consumer advantages inherent in our advanced bundle of services in a way that will resonate across all of our 31 divisions." The cable marketing wars are another reason TWC, the nation's second largest cable operator, chose to consolidate its advertising. The largest cable company, Philadelphia-based Comcast is currently conducting a review of its agencies and is expected to consolidate its estimated $120 million ad account within the next week.
All advertising has a direct role in selling. The goal of your advertising is to continually move a consumer towards a desired action. It is time to erase the thick line - perhaps canyon is a better word - that separates activities that build awareness and activities that create an action. It is time to view advertising as a continuous relationship where the goal is to build a deeper commitment through a series of interactions resulting in revenue. Behavioral targeting is a key tool in putting this philosophy into action To borrow terminology from CRM, I call this view, "relationship advertising." In relationship advertising, every message is a call to action. These actions don't have to be immediate purchases but they are successive commitments in the mind of a customer. Instead of waiting for a prospect to serendipitously do a keyword search that leads them to you, relationship advertising moves the prospect to action at the customer's natural pace. It leverages behavioral triggers to draw the customer closer to your brand one mental commitment at a time. What would relationship advertising actually look like? Let's take an example of a couple thinking about a romantic vacation, and a cruise line trying to attract such couples. When that couple first considers a vacation, they may find themselves reading articles about travel and lifestyles in their favorite online newspaper. The goal of the cruise line, at this point, would be to make the couple aware that a cruise is a great choice for a romantic vacation, and the call to action is for the couple to learn more about a cruise. The competition here isn't another cruise line; it is another vacation choice or no vacation at all. Once that couple clicks on the ad or simply reads an article about cruises, the cruise line's new goal should be to strengthen the budding relationship. The prospect has shown an interest in cruises, so the message should change from: "A cruise is a great way to have a romantic vacation" to "Our cruise line is the cruise line for you and here is a great package." The new call to action is activated by the prospect's own commitment level. Once the prospect tries out different cruise configurations, the next set of messages should be deal closers. This thinking can even apply beyond the close to the upsell and for building loyalty. The point is, that people have processes for making considered purchases and these natural processes have behavioral triggers. Advertisers can either ignore these triggers or build on them. The choice is yours (and your competitors'). So if relationship advertising can be done and it's attractive, what is the barrier? Ignoring logistics for a moment, it is the status quo that separates the metrics, goals, and techniques of direct response and of branding that is the real barrier. When thinking in a brand mode, the metrics and goals entirely ignore the natural process. An impression is an impression, and that is that. There is no distinction between an impression that reaches a target and an impression that reaches someone who isn't even thinking of a vacation. There are finer nuances that are ignored as well, such as between a traveler who has already decided on buying versus someone who is still deciding between a cruise and a road trip. With direct response, we have the opposite problem. If the call to action doesn't achieve a sale today, through this link, right now, it is worthless. There is no consideration of the customer's decision process; there is only an end point. Fortunately, it doesn't have to be this way. Think about your own experience with relationships; I think you'd agree that a build up is usually a good thing. The same is true with relationship advertising. With behavioral targeting, the infrastructure is there for advertisers to view selling and brand building as parts of an integrated process. We can be sensitive to the behavioral triggers people share and use each one to prompt a call to action and a successive commitment. Now there's a concept: advertising that is continually closing every step of the way. Omar Tawakol is senior vice president of marketing for Revenue Science, a leader in behavioral targeting for online advertising. He can be reached at feedback@revenuescience.com.