At a time when advertisers are clamoring for proof that people are watching and are engaged with their TV commercials, a spunky cable network has released new data purporting its viewers are more apt to do that. The Weather Channel, the only media outlet to acknowledge buying so-called minute-by-minute ratings from Nielsen Media Research, has released some the data in preparation for talks with major advertisers and agencies during the 2006-07 upfront buying season. TWC isn't quite prepared to make the numbers the basis of its ratings guarantees with advertisers - something other TV outlets are wary of doing - but it at least is ready to have the conversation. That's probably because the data shows that in January, its viewers tuned in throughout a commercial break 97 percent of the time. The 97 index covers total-day ratings for the month in the adult 25-to-54 demo, which TWC targets. "I think most advertisers would feel that a two- to three-point drop-off is very acceptable," said Liz Janneman, senior vice president at TWC. By contrast, data provided by TWC shows that two networks in its competitive set, Discovery Channel and CNN, had lower retention rates. Discovery's total-day index in the demo was 92, with CNN at 90. In prime time, two TWC series, "Storm Stories" and "It Could Happen Tomorrow," indexed at 94. Two Discovery series, "Monster Garage" and "American Chopper," came in at 93 and 88, respectively. At CNN, "Larry King Live" was at 90; "Paula Zahn Now" at 88; and "Anderson Cooper 360" at 75. Janneman said TWC would be open to making deals based on the data, which Nielsen launched last fall, when the industry agrees on a common metric for attaching valuations. The favorable minute-by-minute performance is one aspect of TWC's push in the upfront to demonstrate that it trumps other networks in advertising effectiveness. Under the double-entendre tagline, "Media's Most Powerful Environment," TWC is advancing the message that ads on its air don't get zapped via DVRs--since its programming doesn't lead to much viewing in time-shifted mode--and generate higher recall, in part because it limits pod length to a minute-and-a-half. The topic of minute-by-minute data--which potentially could cost networks loads of dollars if it shows significant viewing drop-offs during commercials--generated considerable dialogue at the recent American Association of Advertising Agencies' media conference. Jean Pool, executive vice president-COO at Universal McCann and chair of the AAAA's Media Policy Committee, called on sellers to make the ratings known or risk appearing as if they are "trying to hide some dirty little secret." "In the end, we want commercial ratings, not program averages," she said. Only two buyer groups are known to have purchased the data from Nielsen--Starcom MediaVest and ZenithOptimedia. The issue has divided not only buyers and sellers, but also sellers. While TWC is willing to move toward using the data as a currency, others are more resistant. While speaking to reporters at the conference, Mike Shaw, ABC's president of sales and marketing, said the issue is "a two-way street," and that if advertisers want to employ minute-by-minute ratings, they must bear the burden of creating more compelling ads--including in HD--to prevent viewer exodus during breaks. "They better start coming up with some better creative," he said.
A week after Nielsen Media Research disclosed digital video recorder penetration estimates that were higher than previously thought, a top Madison Avenue player has done the same. Interpublic media buying giant Magna Global USA this morning released an update in its "On Demand Quarterly" series indicating that DVRs are now present in 11.7 percent of U.S. TV households, up from 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005. That represents an upward revision from Magna's last report, which estimated DVR penetration was only 8.8 percent as of the third quarter of 2005. It also revised its long-term forecast up to 34.4 million DVR subscribers by 2010, from an earlier estimate of 33 million that year. Last week, Nielsen told attendees at its national client meetings in Orlando that it had revised its current DVR penetration estimate to 10 percent of U.S. households, from 8 percent previously. Nielsen also projected that DVRs would be available in 18 percent of U.S. homes by the end of the year. Magna Vice President-Director of Industry Analysis Brian Wieser cited three factors for the revised outlook, which also includes revised outlooks for video-on-demand penetration: * AT&T's and Verizon's "slightly more aggressive stance in deploying DVRs compared to cable operators." * 100 percent availability of VOD to telephone company video subscribers. * The shifting mix of subscribers among cable, satellite and telephone companies. Regarding VOD, Magna now expects that function to be available to 66 million households by 2010, either via cable, satellite or telephone- based service providers. Despite "the recent torrent of news associated with the distribution of on-demand content through cable and satellite providers," Wieser said Magna believes the industry still is "in the early days" of the new, nonlinear TV business model. "Further availability of content through conventional television sets will continue to depend upon content packagers, distributors, and advertisers working together to move the medium forward. The following section of this report includes an analysis of business model elements required to sustain advertising in the on-demand world."
Eight months after it organized a task force to define the meaning of advertising and media engagement, and to help develop metrics for measuring it, the Advertising Research Foundation Monday said it now has a definition for engagement. The foundation, which is holding its annual "re:think" conference in New York this week, did not, however, actually release the explicit definition. Instead, it issued statements alluding to it. "Engagement occurs as a result of a brand idea or media the consumer experiences which leaves a positive brand impression. It is now a critical advertising model to replace GRPs in the 21st century," Dr. Joseph Plummer, chief research officer for the ARF, said in the statement, adding: "It is important that we think hard about engagement to develop a robust measurement of when consumers are strongly engaged in brands, brand ideas and their surrounding environments." In February, during a Newspaper Association of America marketing conference presentation, Plummer released what he described as the MI4 task force's working definition: "Engagement is turning on a prospect to a brand idea enhanced by the surrounding media context." On Monday, the ARF indicated that is still the focus, noting that the "definition of engagement aims to make an improved ability to measure the concept of when a consumers mind is 'turned on' to a brand idea." That appears to leave much room for interpretation of what engagement might mean specifically for media planning and buying. That may become clearer this morning, during the opening session of the second day of the ARF's conference, which focuses on the topic of engagement.
The set-up: More people are watching more comedies on TV than ever before. The punchline: They are not watching them on the broadcast networks. Not so funny? Blame the delivery on Magna Global USA, which issued a report Monday showing that cable and syndication are where viewers are turning to get their TV laughs. "Comedy viewers haven't disappeared--they're simply biding their time, happily watching the same comedies they've loved for years, whether on broadcast, syndication, cable, or DVD--just waiting for a new one to join the club," writes Steve Sternberg, executive vice president of audience analysis for Magna, in the new report. This creates a bigger problem, he says. With "Seinfeld," "Frasier," "Friends," and "Everyone Loves Raymond" still on the air in syndication and on cable, networks have found it difficult to find the next great sitcom because their efforts are always being compared to the recent past. The average rating for a broadcast comedy has gone down to a 3.3 household rating for the 2005-2006 season, from an 11.9 in the 1993-1994 season. Although 13 years have passed, the average cable rating hasn't moved--it sits at a 0.5 number. Syndication lost about half its rating to a 2.8 from a 5.6 before. The difference is the amount of total weekly time viewed. Cable has jumped to 2.41 hours of comedy a week from a 0.74. Broadcast has dropped to a 0.65 from a 2.11. Syndication has climbed--not as much as cable--to 1.78 hour per week from a 0.93 hour average. Fifty comedies were on broadcast TV in 2003; this season there are 40. TV analysts say the business is cyclical, and Sternberg says networks are just now seeing some of that uptick. Single camera sitcoms--NBC's "The Office" and "My Name is Earl," and UPN's "Everybody Hates Chris"--have brought broadcast viewers back to comedies to some extent. The secret, says Sternberg, is finding the true family comedy, not an "edgy" comedy, which pull in a 'fringe' audience. Networks have failed miserably in this regard--"Action," "The Job," "Method & Red," "Coupling," "Father of the Pride," "Arrested Development," "Emily's Reasons Why Not," and "Sons and Daughters"--to name a few. By comparison, a family comedy grabs multi-generational viewers, all of which pushes up ratings.
Setting the stage for upcoming battles with traditional cable operators, CBS has struck a wide-ranging and ground-breaking deal that, according to media executives, will include payment of CBS signals from Verizon's budding local franchise video business. The deal includes analog station carriage of CBS stations on Verizon's nascent FiOS TV, its new fiber-optic TV service--as well as carriage of digital multi-cast channels that CBS stations might start up, HDTV, and video-on-demand programming for CBS' network and local content. Verizon has about two million subscribers in franchises in a number of states: Texas, New York, and Florida, to name a few. CBS, and broadcasters, have made retransmission deals in the past that don't include monetary payments--not directly, at least. For instance, when it was part of Viacom, any cable carriage deal made for CBS would also include MTV Networks, which definitely gets a per-subscriber fee from cable operators. TV distribution executives believe that is what CBS is getting from Verizon, and what it intends to get from other cable operators. Leslie Moonves, chairman-CEO of CBS Corp., told analysts a few weeks ago that a major retransmission deal was in the works. Moonves said that other deals would be made as well. He expected CBS to reap "hundreds of millions" of dollars from retransmission deals. CBS expects many new retransmission deals to be done next year--as many of its older deals will expire then. Moonves hasn't said directly that CBS is getting monetary compensation for its Verizon deal. However, he did say in a release: "With each subscriber that Verizon's FiOS TV adds, CBS will directly benefit." CBS would not disclose details of the agreement. Analysts say the bigger issue comes with bigger traditional cable operators, such as with Comcast Corp.--which has around 20 million homes. Already, CBS has made a VOD programming deal with Comcast for CBS stations in markets where Comcast has cable systems. Comcast will charge $1.99 for each CBS showing of three shows--"CSI," "Survivor," and "NCIS." But the Comcast deal didn't include retransmission of CBS signals on Comcast systems. "People have tried this before, but they have never made any headway," said Dennis McAlpine, managing partner of financial advisor and banker, McAlpine Associates, in reference to payment for retransmission deals. "[In the midst of a negotiation] the MSO sometimes cuts off their channels. If someone like Comcast--with 20 million subscribers--doesn't carry your stations, there goes a big chunk of your ratings." CBS says the Verizon deal is the largest for the Telco. CBS's owned stations are in all Verizon TV markets, except Washington, D.C. Previously, a deal was made giving Verizon programming from CBS-owned stations. McAlpine notes that Verizon is going after bigger fish. It's hoping that Congress approves a national cable franchise bill that could go Verizon's way.