Traditional television viewing keeps climbing--even as competing platforms grow as well. TV viewing rose 4.1% to 142 hours and 29 minutes per month in the third quarter--a hike of 5 hours and 35 minutes versus the same time period a year ago, according to The Nielsen Co. TV also was up in users by 1.6%, to 282.2 million per month in the third quarter over the same period last year. While Internet usage also was up, the growth of time spent watching video was not as high as with traditional TV. Internet usage rose 5.7% to just over 27 hours per month, which amounts to one hour and 29 minutes more than a year ago. Internet usage was just 19% of all traditional TV viewing, at 142 hours and 29 minutes. The Internet also witnessed its user base climb 4.2% to 159.9 million average users per month in the same period. Watching video on the Internet still represents a fraction of the Internet's overall usage--just two hours and 31 minutes a month, compared to overall Internet usage of 27 hours and 18 minutes. Internet video monthly viewing--among those who watch Internet video--was just 1.4% of overall traditional TV viewing per month. Nielsen says its measurement of Internet usage was a combination of time at home and work. Time-shifted TV viewing rocketed up nearly 53.5% to 6 hours and 32 minutes. The percentage of time-shifting users rose 35% higher, to 67.7 million monthly users. In regard to nascent mobile video usage, Nielsen says some 10.2 million watched mobile video per month in the third quarter, with those who subscribe to a mobile video service now looking at three hours and 37 minutes of video--up from three hours and fifteen minutes in the second quarter of 2008. For traditional TV viewing, viewers 65 and older watch more than 196 hours a month, the most of any age group. The lowest levels are with kids ages 2-11, at over 108 minutes a month. The biggest Internet users are adults 35-44, at more than 37 hours. Watching Internet video is most popular among 18- to-24-year-olds, averaging three hours and 57 minutes per month.
The dramatic cuts in General Motors' marketing efforts continued Monday as the once-dominant carmaker ended a nearly decade-long relationship with the world's dominant golfer. GM said it won't renew its deal with Tiger Woods, a long-time Buick endorser, when it expires at the end of the year. GM said that the sides reached a "mutual and amicable separation," partly sparked by Woods' desire for more family time as he awaits his second child--but also due to "the search for budget efficiencies during a difficult economy for General Motors." The move underscores how bare things have become in the marketing arena at GM. While major budget-slashing has been ongoing, shedding relationships as potentially valuable as the one with Woods would seem to be a matter of last resort. Of course, Woods' large endorsement fee may have simply become cost-prohibitive for the more-than-struggling automaker. Mark LaNeve, a GM executive with marketing oversight, said the seeds of the end of the link with Woods started before GM's recent round of troubles. "In light of the news coming out of Washington," LaNeve said, referring to issues involving an auto industry bailout, "this decision is the result of discussions that started earlier in the year. The timing of this agreement with these other activities is purely coincidental." He added that Woods has been "a fantastic asset through the years helping to bring consumer awareness to many new GM products." Woods, who has won 14 major titles and is expected to resume his chase for a 15th at the Masters in April, has been a GM spokesman for nine years.
The Screen Actors Guild is close to a strike authorization vote--but that doesn't necessarily mean a strike. The slow-moving, now five-month-long deadlock over a new TV and theatrical contract seems to be moving toward a strike. No date has been set, and even SAG President Alan Rosenberg has said that a strike-authorization vote does not necessarily mean the union will immediately go on strike. SAG requires 75% of its voting members to approve the measure in order to go forward. Talks broke down between the actors' union and the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers over the weekend, which was arranged by a federal mediator. The SAG now says: "We will now launch a full-scale education campaign in support of a strike-authorization referendum. We will further inform our members about the core, critical issues unique to actors that remain in dispute." Last Thursday, the two sides met. Before that, they spoke in mid-July, when the SAG rejected AMPTP's $250 million final offer. The producers have said the SAG will not get better agreements than the ones reached by other industry unions--including the WGA, DGA and AFTRA. The issues stem from SAG wanting better compensation, especially for new digital media platforms. Entertainment business analysts have suggested that a weak economy plays into the producers' hands and against the actors' union. Not so, says a SAG official--who notes that in tough financial times, performers need a fairer deal more than ever. A SAG strike now would come exactly one year after the Writers Guild strike began over the same issues. That strike lasted three months and cost the industry approximately $500 million, according to industry estimates.
Advertising revenues are expected to plateau or decrease during the recession now underway, but one category--local advertising--will take especially heavy hits, according to analysts who released their predictions over the last two months. Their forecasts look plausible, compared with local ad revenue trends over the last three decades. In October, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes predicted that next year, total advertising revenues could fall as much as they did in the recession of 2000-2002--implying an overall decline of up to 7% in 2009. Wienkes added that local advertising will suffer larger losses than national, with local TV station advertising falling by as much as 17%. Wienkes also sees declines of 5% to 10% across radio, out-of-home, magazines and newspapers. Echoing Wienkes' warning on local broadcast TV advertising, the Television Bureau of Advertising recently lowered its forecast for 2009 even further into negative territory. According to the TVB, total spot advertising will decline by 7% to 11% in 2009, with local spot down 4% to 8%. In fact, the declines have already begun: The TVB also said that total spot revenues for 2008 will probably come in 7% lower than 2007. The original forecast, released in early September, was revised in October to reflect the rapid worsening of the economic situation. Radio will also take big hits from collapsing local revenues, which traditionally make up more than two-thirds of its total revenues. For the year-to-date, local revenues are down 8%, and the decline appeared to accelerate in the third quarter, with a 10% drop. Noting that "October was the 18th consecutive negative year-over-year revenue month and 2008 is the eighth straight struggling year," Jim Boyle, a veteran radio analyst with CL King and Associates, issued this grim forecast: "If the recession lasts for all of 2009 and the weakness persists in many of the major radio ad categories, such as auto, to a point where spending severely plunges, then it may be 2010 or beyond before radio revives." This situation is nothing new for newspapers, which have suffered local revenue declines for several years running; losses during the recession will be even worse. According to the Newspaper Association of America, the retail category--which includes the bulk of local advertising--declined 0.3% in 2006 and 5% in 2007, during relatively good economic times. As the situation darkened over the course of 2008, retail fell off a cliff, with an 8.6% decline in the first quarter followed by a 9.5% decline in the second. At this rate, a 10% decline for 2008 seems quite plausible, and the future looks even worse. Robert Coen of Universal McCann predicts a 12% decrease in total newspaper revenues in 2009. Yellow Pages--long a bulwark of local advertising--will also face a rapid deterioration in the advertising environment, according to Borrell Associates, which predicted in July that print directories would lose about $5 billion of ad revenue over the next five years; that equals about 40% of their projected revenue for 2008. Borrell says the print directories will see revenues collapse because of competition from the Internet, which provides listings as well as interactivity and a variety of database functions for sorting business listings. Of course, Yellow Pages publishers have seen their own Web portals grow, and will continue to do so. But like newspapers and radio, they are not making enough money to replace losses on the print advertising side. Local Internet advertising will not be immune from the coming downturn, however. Borrell warned that year-over-year growth will slow from a feverish 48% in 2008--when local online revenues jumped to $12.9 billion--to a much more modest 8% in 2009, when they should reach $13.9 billion.
Dish Network has inked a deal to further use its set-top box data to provide improved performance metrics for advertisers, including via second-by-second viewership tracking. The agreement is with measurement firm Rentrak. Satellite operator Dish said Rentrak will provide anonymous data on viewing that it garners from the set-top boxes on the granular level, covering programming and advertising. Dish Network said this would offer advertisers another option for trying to gain some sense of how ads are being watched, including when viewership crests and fades during breaks. The data covers linear viewing for now. In 2009, Rentrak is expected to begin evaluating some data regarding what occurs when shows are recorded and watched later with DVRs. "Advertisers are clamoring for this level of reporting to gain insights and to increase efficiencies in this age of increased accountability," said Michael Finn, vice president of advertising sales for Dish. "This reporting will make a significant difference for advertisers across all of our current and future initiatives, and will allow us to make more informed internal programming and marketing decisions," Finn adds. Dish, which has about 13.8 million customers, also has a deal with Google. The Internet company sells ads that run on Dish via an auction-based system and provides advertisers with second-by-second results.
To stay tech-savvy, the NFL will experiment with a 3D version of a game next month in movie theaters, but fans will be on the sidelines. On Dec. 4, the futuristic live feed of the Thursday night San Diego vs. Oakland game will be available to industry executives as part of a test. There is some thought that the technology may eventually be available on TV screens in homes. "Invited guests" will be able to see the game in three theaters--one each in Foxborough, Mass., Hollywood and New York. Foxborough was chosen, in part, because of influential NFL owner Bob Kraft. He owns a mall-like facility across from his New England Patriots' stadium that has a theater run by National Amusements. (CBS, which broadcasts the NFL, has a restaurant at what's known as Patriot Place.) In Hollywood, it appears that the famed Mann Chinese Theatre will be the venue. In New York, a member of the Clearview Cinemas chain will be used--a curious choice since it's owned by Cablevision, which successfully fought against the building of a new NFL stadium in Manhattan several years ago and upset the league. The NFL would no comment on the venues. Consumers are increasingly viewing sports events in HD-- a trend that is expected to accelerate after the digital transition next year. However, the 3D feed is touted as a considerably higher-quality option that will make its way into homes at some point. "The NFL has played an important role in the evolution of media and consumer acceptance of emerging technologies, and we're pleased to work with 3ality Digital and RealD (3D filmmakers) to glimpse into the future," said Howard Katz, NFL senior vice president of broadcasting and media operations. "This broadcast will be an exciting test of how 3D could affect fans' experience in the future." "As boxing fans once gathered at local theaters to see heavyweight title matches in the era before pay-per-view and plasma televisions, RealD's new technology will give audiences another reason to head to the theater," said Michael Lewis, RealD CEO. Ads during the Dec. 4 theater-casts will run as they do in the TV broadcasts and not in 3D.
Diane Mermigas will return next week.