Scripps Networks Interactive has inked a deal giving it access to second-by-second ratings data for its portfolio of channels that include HGTV and Food Network. The agreement is with TNS Media Research, which is offering the granular data for both live and DVR-enabled viewing. TNS is deriving the ratings from set-top box data, culled from viewers who have DirecTV. Michael Pardee, who heads research and analytics at Scripps, said "return-path data available from set-top boxes... enables us to build more robust predictive modeling of long-term viewing trends." The TNS data comes from the viewing performance of 100,000 subscribers to DirecTV, the leading satellite distributor. TNS says the data from that subset can be projected to show patterns for all 17 million homes that have the service. Scripps had a separate deal with TNS to garner second-by-second data for its networks from set-top boxes in 300,000 homes served by cable provider Charter in Los Angeles. But that research only covered live viewing and offered no insight into commercial-skipping via DVRs.
ABC's Sales President Mike Shaw has said for some time the network is eager to go beyond commercial ratings or survey-based research to prove the ads it runs are effective. He reiterated his position Thursday, saying ABC is willing to put its neck on the line with a metric that shows ads in a "Lost" or a "Desperate Housewives" actually move products off the shelves. The problem is, Shaw says, marketers are unwilling to share the data on sales results to allow ABC to prove it. And that collaboration doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon -- at least with one of the country's largest advertisers. "We're not going to share proprietary data ... not in my lifetime," said Daryl Evans, an AT&T marketing vice president. Instead, Evans said AT&T will continue to crunch numbers and look for more traditional forms of ROI measurement. For its pricey sponsorship of "American Idol," Evans said that while "not precise," the amount of voting via text messaging gives it a gauge. Evans, who along with Shaw spoke at a TV Week Upfront Summit, said some of the onus for ad effectiveness (and preventing DVR-enabled skipping) rests with marketers. They need to ensure that their spots are compelling. "I do believe the content is a big factor in that," Evans said, adding AT&T has some appealing ads and some "clunkers" in rotation. Network executives like Shaw have suggested that it's unfair to place networks on the hook for viewers who are unwilling to watch banal spots. Last month, top OMD executive Page Thompson said the industry needs to shift away from ratings as the basis for guarantees in the upfront market to an "ROI currency." But GroupM's Irwin Gotlieb shot back that lackluster creative could indeed leave networks at a disadvantage. Initiative USA President Tim Spengler echoed that Thursday: "Some of the spots are inherently lacking in imagination." Spengler suggested that networks looking to demonstrate ROI hold conversations with search engines, such as Google, so "more science [can be] brought to what's working." Still, Evans said AT&T believes TV works and will be an active upfront player this spring. But with the uncertain economy, it may ask networks to offer it more "flexibility," something it may be willing to pay more for.
A top executive overseeing "Mad Men" network AMC said Thursday that the industry's ability to continue producing expensive hits is uncertain in the face of threats posed by DVRs. And he suggested that executives may be too blasé about it. "For the first time in the history of TV, the consumer has become empowered to watch the shows they like without having to watch the commercials ... it puts our jobs at risk," said Ed Carroll, COO of Rainbow Entertainment Services. The "highest-quality" shows are the most costly to produce, he said, citing FX's "Damages," ABC's "Lost" and AMC's "Mad Men" and "Breaking Bad." And networks continue to invest in them despite DVR penetration headed toward 40%. Plus, data shows that 55% of people with the devices are ad-skippers. Not to mention, Carroll added, much of that premium content is available free on the Web, where advertisers pay far less to be in them, compared to costs for the on-air feed. "We seem a bit calm about all this as an industry -- or maybe simply distracted by the recession," he said in a keynote at a TV Week Upfront Summit. "But there is no model by which these shows can be produced and then -- once DVR penetration is pervasive -- get ad posting credit for a minority of their viewers." Nonetheless, Carroll suggested that a poll of 1,500 DVR users commissioned by Rainbow (which also operates WE, IFC and Sundance) offers some insight into how programmers and advertisers can collaborate to combat at least some commercial-skipping. Results showed that 70% of people skip because they are tired of the same commercials playing so often; 60% suggested pods are too long; and 65% said the commercials are "boring." But 73% said they do rewind and watch if something grabs them, while 69% said "if their favorite show were going to be canceled they would be willing to watch all the commercials to save it." Carroll said the research offers suggestions for advertisers and programmers, which "will need to work more closely together" for mutual benefit. And there is an onus on each. Networks "will need to take a serious look" at possibly shortening pod lengths. But, he said, "it seems clear that the commercials will need to appear more like shows -- perhaps with narrative story lines that carry through a campaign. [Or] customized to fit into the network or show they appear on, even utilizing network talent, with an average running time of 10 or 15 seconds." Other data cited by Carroll revealed that consumers do stop and watch ads that speak to them, such as for tax preparation services before April 15, discounts at a favored restaurant or pulsating spots for films. Commercials might also improve effectiveness if addressable advertising got more wind at its back, Carroll suggested. Rainbow sister company Cablevision is offering opportunities in the New York area, while Canoe Ventures is looking to do it on a national level. It can "give advertisers the ability to subdivide the audience composition and make the effectiveness of a national cable [network] buy as targeted and trackable as any Internet provider." And he hinted that Mayor Michael Bloomberg may take advantage of Cablevision's ability to target spots by households in the Bronx and Brooklyn as he runs for re-election.
ABC announced a good chunk of its schedule for the 2009-2010 season with the usual suspects in tow and new hopefuls left behind. Among the 11 shows given the go-ahead for next year are big hitters such as "Grey's Anatomy," "Desperate Housewives" and "Lost." The list include stalwart players "Private Practice," "The Bachelor," "Brothers & Sisters," "America's Funniest Home Videos," "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition," "Ugly Betty," "Supernanny" and "Wife Swap," all of which got the nod in early pick ups for next year. Not on the list is 2-year-old comedy "Samantha Who," which has been suffering at its 8:30 Tuesday nighttime slot. Recently, it took in a 1.5/5 among 18-49 viewers. Last year, before the writers' strike, the show was earning strong 3 and 4 ratings in the big 18-49 demographic. A bunch of midseason shows also didn't yet make the cut -- "The Unusuals," "Better Off Ted," "Scrubs," "Cupid," "In the Motherhood" and "Castle." Of these, only "Castle" appears to have a chance of returning. Of the shows that made it, there were no real surprises, although early on "Ugly Betty" was considered in danger. But recently, Steve McPherson, ABC entertainment president, gave his thumbs up on the show after trying out other series.
Close on the heels of very weak first-quarter results from The New York Times Co., the McClatchy Co. announced Thursday that its ad revenues fell 29.5% in the first quarter of 2009 compared to the same period last year, from $463 million to $284.7 million. That drove a decline of 25.1% in total revenues, which tumbled from $487 million to $365.6 million. Like NYTCO, the decline exceeded the expectations of Wall Street analysts. Continuing the trend of recent years, the steepest declines came in classified advertising, with overall revenues tumbling 41.8%. Reflecting the sharp economic downturn, the biggest loser was recruiting, which plunged 63%, followed by real estate, which fell 44.3%, and autos, down 32.5%. Digital revenues sank 4.7%, as big drops in online recruitment listings canceled out gains in other areas. The company said that digital revenues now make up about 15% of the total -- but the percentage increase is clearly due to sharp contractions of the total. If total revenues had remained the same between 2008 and 2009, the proportion would have gone from 12.3% to 11.7%. The McClatchy results come a week after NYTCO announced its own first-quarter earnings. At NYTCO, total ad revenues plunged 27% in the first three months of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008, from $458.3 million to $334.6 million. This drove a total revenue decrease of 18.6%, from $748 million to $609 million. Operating profit at NYTCO plummeted from $77.7 million in 2008 to just $16.5 million this year. Internet advertising revenues -- a bright spot in years past -- were also weak, posting a 6.1% decline from $72 million to $67.6 million.
A rush to grab more ethnic viewers has Viacom's MTV Networks looking to launch a new, older Afro-American-targeted network called Centric. Company officials say it will launch this October with 45 million subscribers, one of the bigger launches for a cable network in recent years. Centric would complement Viacom's venerable BET channel, which goes into 89 million homes and skews mostly to younger Afro-American viewers, in the 18-34 and 18-49 demographics. In part, Centric intends to compete with TV One, the Comcast/Radio One-owned network, which targets 25-to-54 African-American viewers and reaches 47 million subscribers. As Viacom considered this target demo for Centric, it realized that "a perfect example would be" Barack and Michelle Obama, Scott Mills, the president of BET told The New York Times. Centric would be one of a number of African-American targeted network announcements issued over the past year. In November, Urban Television was announced by BET founder Bob Johnson and NBC Universal's ION Media Networks. Also last year, music rap heavyweight Master P (Percy Miller) announced Better Black Television, a more family-friendly network. More recently, Houston-based Black Broadcasting Network announced plans to launch an urban-targeted entertainment network in 2009. In April 2008, Black Television News Channel was announced from former Congressman J.C. Watts. With a cable operator deal in tow from Comcast, it's set to launch this year. It isn't known whether Viacom's two existing music-oriented channels, targeted in part to Afro-American audiences -- BET J and VH1 Soul, which have 47 million collective subscribers -- will be part of Centric.
Food Network Magazine Raises Rate Base Defying the economic downturn, Hearst's Food Network Magazine is raising its rate base from 300,000 to 900,000 in October, capitalizing on the growing popularity of the magazine since its launch in October 2008. Hearst bumped the scheduled increase up from the original target of 600,000. In the first six months of publication, the title has racked up 550,000 subscriptions. If all goes according to plan, it will raise its rate base again to 1.1 million in August 2010. This bold move comes amid a prolonged downdraft in magazine ad pages and revenues, with the cooking and epicurean categories especially hard-hit. In comparison with the first quarter of 2008, during the first quarter of 2009, Conde Nast's Bon Appetit and Gourmet saw ad pages fall 25.6% and 40%, respectively, while American Express Publishing's Food & Wine is down 30.2%. Time Inc.'s Cooking Light is down 17.2%, while Everyday Food is down 47.3%. Like other magazine publishers, after several years of success, Hearst has had mixed luck with new titles based on TV personalities. Last November, Hearst closed O at Home, a shelter-focused spinoff of O, the Oprah Magazine. In the first quarter of 2009, Everyday With Rachael Ray -- another cable cooking show-to-magazine brand produced by Reader's Digest Association -- is down 26.3%. On the other hand, Cooking with Paula Deen, a custom publication centered on the maternal Food Network personality produced by Hoffman Media, saw ad pages increase 18.3%. Custom Publishing Not Immune, After All Whatever good news the industry has to report on other fronts, custom publishing is not immune to the economic slowdown, according to the Custom Publishing Council -- which found that money spent on custom publishing decreased 20% in 2008 compared to 2007. The total number of custom publications fell from 143,000 to 123,157 between 2007 and 2008 -- a 14% drop -- while unique pages decreased 9.7%. However, the average circulation of the remaining custom pubs increased from 30,044 in 2007 to 37,340 in 2008, a jump of almost 25%. Playboy Faces NYSE De-listing In another sign of the falling fortunes of newspaper and magazine publishers, Playboy Enterprises faces de-listing by the New York Stock Exchange because its market capitalization fell to under $75 million -- the minimum level for listing on the exchange -- for a period of 30 days. As usual in these cases, Playboy has 45 days to submit a plan to raise the value of its shares to exceed the minimum market capitalization within the next 18 months. It won't be de-listed if NYSE approves. Koten Leaves Mansueto Ventures Last week, John Koten resigned as the CEO of Mansueto Ventures, the publisher of Inc. and Fast Company. No reason was given, but the departure followed several strange emails sent to staffers by Koten, who was said to be at odds with Joe Mansueto, the company's owner. Last October, Koten gave responsibility for the Web sites to the staff of the print magazines.
Thanks to the rapid growth of Web video and social networking, online engagement only continues to deepen, according to a report released Wednesday by The Nielsen Co. "The Internet remains a place of continuing innovation, with users finding new ways to integrate online usage into their daily lives," said Charles Buchwalter, SVP of research and analytics at Nielsen Online. "In recent years, the Internet has changed dramatically as people seek more personalized relationships online," said Buchwalter. "In particular, time spent on social networks and video sites has increased astronomically." And according to Buchwalter, advertisers are beginning to catch on. "Advertisers are starting to positively reassess the value of the online experience and create more meaningful relationships with consumers." With the global recession in full swing, online display advertising has plateaued at 20% of total online ad spend in the U.S. In particular, spending on online display advertising by financial services, automobile and retail companies has declined steeply. On the other hand, several key, heavy ad-spending industries such as health care, consumer products and telecommunications appear to be moving even more spending online. Since 2003, the interests of the average online user have shifted significantly. Categories that consisted of portal-oriented browsing sites, such as shopping directories and guides and Web tools and services, used to be the top categories for user engagement. However, Internet users today tend to prefer sites that contain more specialized content, according to Nielsen. This change in preferences is seen in the fact that video and social networking sites have moved to the forefront, becoming the two fastest-growing categories in 2009. The number of U.S. consumers who frequent online video destinations has climbed 339% since 2003, while time spent on video sites has shot up almost 2,000% over the same period. In the last year alone, unique viewers of online video grew 10%, while the number of streams grew 41%, the streams per user grew 27%, and the total minutes engaged with online video grew 71%. Meanwhile, there are 87% more online social media users now than in 2003, with 883% more time devoted to those sites. In the last year alone, time spent on social networking sites has surged 73%, while in February, social network usage exceeded Web-based e-mail usage for the first time. Over the long term, Nielsen predicts that the Internet's share of total ad spend will continue its steady upward trend as global economies emerge from the current recession. What's more, given the increased focus on digital marketing by leading packaged goods companies, the Internet's share of commerce will continue to rise as well.
Fox's "American Idol" continued another winning Wednesday, but it didn't do much for the network's new "Lie to Me," which drifted down a bit. The new Fox drama is now at a 2.3 rating/7 share among 18-49 viewers versus a 2.6/7 in its most recent outing. And it's much lower than the 3 or 4 rating it started with a few months ago. Still, "Lie To Me" won the 8 p.m. time period -- higher than the 1.9/6 from second-place CW with "America's Next Top Model," the only other series with an original episode during that time period. "Model" won among its more core 18-34 viewers with a 2.2/8. "Idol" had its usual 8.1/21, virtually the same numbers as a week ago. Fox ended the night with more than double the ratings of CBS, its nearest competitor. Fox earned a 5.2/15 versus CBS' 2.5/7. CBS' best results came from a 3.5/10 for an original episode of "Criminal Minds," which won the 10 p.m. time period. ABC came in third with a 2.1/6. Two of its recent new shows trended down. ABC's 10 p.m. show "The Unusuals" landed in third place with a 1.6/5, down from its 1.9/5 a week ago. The network's 8:30 p.m. show "Better Off Ted" was down to a 1.7/5 from a 1.9/6 of a week ago. ABC's "Lost" highlight show took a 2.9/7 to offer up some competition to "Idol" at 9 p.m. It was down from its original episode a week ago at a 3.9/10. NBC was in full rerun mode for the night, as was CBS with comedies "The New Adventures of Old Christine" and "Gary Unmarried." NBC had a 1.5/4 for the night, which tied Univision. But the Spanish- language network was higher than NBC among 18-34 viewers -- a 1.4/4 versus a 1.1/3. CW finished with a 1.2/3 among 18-49 viewers and a 1.4/5 for 18-34 viewers.