The advertising hits just keep on coming for TV stations, networks and programmers -- and not in a good way. Overall, broadcast television ad revenues were down 22.6% to $8.8 billion in the third quarter, versus the same time period a year ago, according to the Television Bureau of Advertising. Local TV stations slipped 28.1% to $3.1 billion, with network TV off 21.5% to $4.7 billion. The best news came with syndicated TV, which dropped a modest 7.2% to $1.0 billion. The period was particularly rough compared to the broader nine-month period in 2009 to date, per TVB. Over this period, network TV dropped 10.7%, syndicated TV was off 2.8%, and local broadcast TV plummeted 27.4%. This brings an overall nine-month loss for broadcast TV to 15.7%, at $28.9 billion. The big three categories continue to show declines in the third quarter: automotive, down 49.8%; communications/telecommunications, off 22.3%; and restaurants, cutting back 14.8%. Other major categories went in the same direction: Car and truck dealers declined 32.6%; furniture stores pulled back 19.8%; insurance marketers were down 21.0%; schools, colleges and camps shrank 11.0%; and food and food products were off 7.0%. Only three of TV's top 25 ad categories showed gains in local broadcast. This group included legal services advertisers -- the 10th-biggest local TV advertiser -- up 3.3%. Supermarkets and other food stores improved 3.7%, and household products such as soaps and cleaners were up 6.4%. Political advertising, in 19th place, lost 83.9% to $28.4 billion during the period. 3rd QUARTER 2009 SUMMARY($000) 3rd Qtr 20093rd Qtr 2008% Change Spot TV* 3,119,714.9 4,336,851.7 -28.1 Syndication 1,022,248.4 1,101,120.4 -7.2 Network TV 4,656,588.8 5,931,483.2 -21.5 Total Broadcast TV 8,798,552.1 11,369,455.3 -22.6 JAN-SEPT 2009 SUMMARY($000) Jan-Sept 2009Jan-Sept 2008% Change Spot TV* 8,659,740.9 11,924,769.8 -27.4 Syndication 3,208,224.7 3,301,801.5 -2.8 Network TV 17,033,481.3 19,072,455.5 -10.7 Total Broadcast TV 28,901,446.9 34,299,026.8 -15.7 *Includes both local and national spot activity in the 100+ markets measured by TNS/MI. Copyright 2008, 2009. TNS Media Intelligence
General Mills boosted marketing spending by nearly 40% in its most recent fiscal quarter, with executives saying more increases are coming to back staples, such as Cheerios and new entrants like more Pillsbury frozen appetizers. "Strong levels of advertising support" need to continue, Executive Vice President Jeff Rotsch said on a call with investors. In the recent quarter ending Nov. 29, General Mills posted a 4% gain in U.S. retail sales to $2.9 billion. That came after a 10% growth in the same period a year ago. Company-wide operating profit was up 43% to $879 million. Media spending was up 37% in the quarter -- and a double-digit increase is planned for the 12 months ending in late spring. Company executives cited a tie-in with NBC show "The Biggest Loser" as a worthwhile investment. CFO Don Mulligan said on the call that "multicultural consumers" are a key target and digital marketing an emphasis. The spending figures reflect General Mills' global outlays; the company said it is investing internationally. But 71% of its sales come from U.S. retail channels. Ad Age figures show the company spent $1.2 billion in ad dollars in 2008, making it the 34th largest domestic spender. Rotsch, who oversees worldwide sales, said General Mills has a veteran sales staff, with an average of 11 years of experience. He said the U.S. retail business is changing. A decade ago, 75% of sales took place in supermarkets -- a figure now down to 60%, with mass merchandisers and other outlets growing. Coming promotions include links for the Totino's brand with a Mountain Dew action sports tour and a new "Shrek" film. New products nearing launch include a Wheaties Fuel line in January.
Struggling video and TV producers will be emboldened by the news: Consumers will pay for video content in the coming years. Investment banker UBS and digital researcher eMarketer say that in three years, people paying for online video will make up 77% of the market, with 23% of the market being advertising-supported. Much of this activity will come from downloading movies and TV shows from Netflix, Blockbuster, Amazon and Apple. Digital researcher eMarketer says that despite YouTube's dominant advantage over all video sites -- with its 100 million monthly unique visitors -- it still has been difficult for the big video digital area to monetize its traffic. Advertising sales have been slow. YouTube executives recently floated the concept of developing a pay video area. The key for consumers: increasing demand in expecting video to be instantly available on all digital devices. Consumers will be willing to pay subscription fees for that content, according to the study. But more marketing efforts are needed from pay-video providers to move the market. In a report called "Paid Video Content: Focus on Movies and TV," Paul Verna, eMarketer senior analyst, says: "For this digital marketplace to evolve into a substantial revenue generator, consumers must be convinced of the value of paying for digital movies. So far, their willingness to pay is up in the air." He adds: "One of the keys to the growth of paid video content is technology integration. With consumer electronics firms launching a new wave of Internet-enabled TVs and other devices, the next decade will bring about a wholesale shift in the home video experience."
Tune in: There's some good news for the radio business -- Clear Channel Radio and Katz Media Group (the radio ad sales rep firm owned by Clear Channel) reported a substantial increase in ad sales in December and January, compared to the same months in 2008. Together with some positive macroeconomic indicators and glimmers of a turnaround in magazine ad sales, the radio rebound holds out hope for a broader media recovery in the New Year. According to Katz, national spot ad sales increased 13.2% in December compared to last year; January 2010 is on track to deliver a 17.4% increase over January 2009's dismal results. In terms of market size, the rising tide appears to be lifting all boats, with the top 10 markets up almost 22%, No. 11-25 up 19.3%, and No. 51-75 up 33.6%. These rebounds are in line with earlier recessionary trends, which saw mid-sized markets taking smaller hits than bigger markets. Specifically, Clear Channel had some good news in the all-important category of local ad sales, which also grew in December, albeit more modestly. So far, local ad sales are up 1.4% for the month compared to December 2008. January is also looking positive, with average minute rates climbing 5%-6% compared to a year ago. These numbers may not be huge, but they are vastly better than anything reported by most big radio groups over the last year, or even two to three years. For the industry as a whole, through the third quarter of 2009, total national ad revenues were down 22% to $1.7 billion, according to the Radio Advertising Bureau, while local fell 23% to just under $9 billion. Going back two more years, the national figure represents a 48.5% drop from $3.3 billion in the first nine months of 2006, and the local figure an 18% drop from $11 billion.
Fox's early marketing efforts for the ninth season of "American Idol," the top broadcast-rated show, are focusing on its reality show roots rather than its usual high-glam appeal. Fox's new theme this year -- "They All Start Somewhere" -- will be pushed through its January 12th season opener. Much of this will be seen in early promos of young talent working as waitresses, signing in subways, or washing dishes. Previous year's themes included "Come Together" and "Share your Voice." The year before that: "Dream Big." "In the past, we wanted to be big, fun, and glossy," says Joe Earley, executive vice president of marketing and communications for Fox. "[This year] we went for more reality, real moments and real people." For much on-air promotional material, Fox used handheld cameras to observe early auditions of young, prospective talent in more real-life settings, as well as to follow last-year's winners on tour. "Idol" marketing started with one spot during the World Series in late October. Then just before Thanksgiving, Fox took the campaign to a level it calls "The Journey," featuring the talent and their stories. It ran for two weeks. After that, Fox moved to the 'What's New' part of the campaign -- showing off new talent, new guest judges, and finally the big news that everyone seems to know -- Ellen DeGeneres will be a new judge. Fox did not push DeGeneres early on in promos, since that would have overshadowed the network's broader message of focusing on the real-life aspects of the contestants. In addition, DeGeneres' late start in coming to the programming was an issue. This means she won't be seen in the early rounds of the auditions. (That's where the guest judges come in.) DeGeneres will show up during "Hollywood Week," which comes after three to four weeks of episodes. Soon Fox will move to the part of the campaign portraying "American Idol" as a big event. "We did a special promo shoot," says Earley, who would not go into details. During the Bowl Championship Series around New Year's Day, Fox will start up promos featuring those bad, corny, and funny early round auditions. Fox will also do a number of 'split' 15-second promo spots where viewers are left guessing whether a singer that is introduced to the judges will be good or bad. The first 15-second spot is the intro, the set-up. Then a regularly scheduled commercial will run, followed by another 15-second "Idol" spot -- a 'reveal' performance, showing off good or bad singing. Other media plans: Digital outdoor boards will start soon in 13 markets. Other outdoor media materials will hit in January in malls, buses, and other places. Weekly magazines targeting females will begin before the show's debut on January 12th.
Newspaper and magazine publishers are scrambling to take advantage of the surge of interest in electronic readers, in a free-for-all made all the more confusing by the sheer number of devices and publishers involved. In the latest match-up, Sony announced that its new electronic reader will allow users to buy digital subscriptions to The Wall Street Journal, as well as its tabloid cousin, the New York Post. Both papers are owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. The WSJ subscriptions will cost $14.99 per month via Sony, while a subscription to MarketWatch and selected WSJ columns will go for $10.99 per month, and the NYP subscription will go for $9.99 per month. Sony said it has exclusive distribution rights for the Post's digital edition, set to debut next month. However, digital subscriptions for the WSJ are available on a wide range of devices, including Amazon's Kindle as well as mobile versions for smartphones. There has been a general move by print publishers to make digital editions available for e-readers. Last week, Conde Nast, Hearst, Meredith and Time Inc. unveiled an independent joint venture to create a shared publishing solution for digital versions of their content. This should allow them to create and deliver digital editions of magazines, newspapers and other text-focused products to mobile devices, including e-readers. Conde Nast has also begun developing e-reader software based on Adobe AIR for its big titles, while Hearst is touting Skiff, a new device and software platform for viewing digital content on various portable devices. Newspaper publisher McClatchy has also unveiled plans to introduce Kindle-compatible editions of five newspapers: The Sacramento Bee, Charlotte Observer, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Anchorage Daily News, and Raleigh's News & Observer. Research outfits are also scrambling to get a handle on the demographics of the new device owners. In November, Mediamark Research and Intelligence released the results of a study that found people who own electronic book readers are better educated and more affluent than the average American adult. Overall, 2.1 million American adults own an electronic book reader, according to MRI's estimate, with a gender distribution that somewhat favors men (56.3%) over women (43.7%). Adults ages 35-54 are the most likely age cohort to own an e-reader, with a 20% greater probability than the general population. MRI found that e-reader owners are 11% more likely to own their own home, 87% more likely to have an annual household income over $100,000, and 111% more likely to have a bachelor's or post-graduate degree. In keeping with their tech-savvy reputation, they are more likely to be heavy Internet users.
Marketers looking to reach sports fans could boost ROI by running campaigns on just DirecTV and Dish Network in lieu of national buys. Nielsen data shows that ratings for sports programming are notably higher in satellite homes than the rest of the country. On average, DBS homes scored 8% greater ratings for network sports events in 2009 than the 70% of homes without a satellite feed. The results are not a complete surprise, given that much of DirecTV's brand equity is tied up in being a sports bar on-screen. It continues to spend handsomely to maintain exclusivity for the "NFL Sunday Ticket" package. DirecTV and Dish each have about two minutes an hour to run ads on channels such as ESPN, so ad buys in those slots could bring attractive targeting. Separately, Nielsen said homes with high-def TVs tend to have more rabid sports consumption than homes without them. That's good news for networks counting on HD to bolster traditional sports viewing for years to come. Unlike other programming that does well on the Internet, sports with HD may be an experience that far exceeds what the Web offers. Nielsen said homes with HDTVs posted 21% higher ratings for sports in 2009 than households with the standard-definition sets. As of May, about 33% of homes had HDTV sets. Another figure shows that sports consumption is solid: Even as TV ratings rose, 88 million-plus Americans visited a sports Web site in October, up 19% compared to the year before.
Whether it is change in business, technology or your job responsibilities, one thing is certain: change, though sometimes good, is not easy. Here are some great books on tackling and understanding change from media executives at companies ranging from Google to Time Inc. and CBS to OMD. Everyware: The Dawning Age of Ubiquitous Computing - by Adam Greenfield "Although not a new book (2006) and not strictly a business book, this is a totally absorbing work. It explores the implications of a not-too-distant future where computers will be embedded everywhere in our physical space, including our homes, our vehicles and our bodies. Greenfield is a great writer and he discusses both the scary and encouraging aspects of this inevitability with complete authority." -- Peggy Kelly, EVP, Universal McCann The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference -- by Malcolm Gladwell The premise of this facile piece of pop sociology has built-in appeal: Little changes can have big effects. When small numbers of people start behaving differently, that behavior can ripple outward until a critical mass or "tipping point" is reached, changing the world. "All of Gladwell's books are great. This is a classic." --Gail Stein, group account director, OMD Only the Paranoid Survive by Andy Grove & Leading Change by John Kotter "We live and work in a time of rapid transformations. There are two business books which are complementary for succeeding in the midst of change. "Only The Paranoid Survive" by Andy Grove (retired CEO of Intel) is the best book ever written on the subject of external change -- how to view it clinically, understand it and get out ahead of it. Leading Change by John Kotter (Harvard Business School) is the best management book for leading internal change -- how to organize it, lead it and make sure it becomes institutionalized. Taken together, these books are my touchstones for leadership strategies that halt the feeling that your company is a victim of circumstance. Instead, they create the direction by which any company can be empowered to embrace change as a competitive and cultural advantage." --Mark McLaughlin, president of McLaughlin Strategy Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More - by Chris Anderson A New York Times bestseller and winner of the Gerald Loeb Award for best business book of the year, Long Tail introduced the business world to a future that's already here. "It really changed the way that I thought about how to aggregating the consumer in different media forms." --Gail Stein, group account director, OMD Curse of the Mogul: What's Wrong With the World's Leading Media Companies- by Columbia University professor, Jonathan Knee The media industry is facing multiple financial and operational crises on an unprecedented scale, and Knee focuses in on the usual suspects to analyze and discuss the dilemma. "It's controversial. He attacks their business models--acquiring rather than building, not paying attention to shareholder value etc. It's kind of cool." --Nick Loria, media executive The Shift: The Transformation of Today's Marketers into Tomorrow's Growth Leaders by Scott M. Davis "The Shift is a must-read to help marketers and their respective organizations move ahead and thrive." --From the foreword by Philip Kotler, S.C. Johnson and Son Distinguished Professor of International Marketing, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University Recommended by Mark Hosbein, former SVP marketing at Nielsen Business Media Book summaries taken from Amazon.com