Aegis Group media shop Carat issued a revised 2012 ad spending growth forecast Thursday, downgrading estimates for the U.S. by half a percentage point to 4.9%. It was the shop’s first revised forecast since last August. Global growth for the year was left unchanged at 6.0%. Even with the downgrade, the shop’s U.S. estimate is more bullish than a revised estimate issued by Publicis Groupe’s ZenithOptimedia earlier in the week, which pegs U.S. ad-spending growth at 3.6% this year to about $160 billion. That was a slight upgrade, attributed to improving economic indicators. Globally, ZO is slightly more optimistic than it had been -- but not as bullish as Carat. ZO slightly upgraded its worldwide growth estimate for the year to 4.8% for a total of $489.3 billion. Carat, meanwhile, predicts that in 2013 global spending on digital advertising will overtake spending on newspapers for the first time, with digital spending increasing by more than 15%. Globally, 2013 spending growth will reach 5.8% -- surprisingly strong, given the lack of special events in 2012 (Olympics and U.S. election cycle). That’s just two-tenths of a percentage off the pace of expected 2012 growth. Western Europe will continue to slump this year, with slightly better results for 2013, per the Carat forecast. For 2012, Carat has downgraded the region’s estimated ad growth to 1.5%, half the previous forecast. Next year, results for the region are expected to rebound a bit, with 2.2% growth. The Asia-Pacific region will continue to show robust growth this year and next, per the forecast, with a spending gain of 7.2% this year, followed by nearly 9% growth in 2013. The latter projection is an upgrade of about 2 percentage points versus Carat’s August forecast. Spending in China will continue to grow sharply, up 15.4% this year and another nearly 15% in 2013. Latin America will also continue to show double-digit growth this year and next, but Carat said the region will cool off slightly with spending that isn’t quite as high as it projected in August. For 2012, the region should be up close to 11% (down from the initially projected 13%) -- while next year spending in the region is expected to grow nearly 11% versus the 13% that was forecast in August. Aegis CEO Jerry Buhlmann characterized the new Carat forecasts as “really encouraging. Not only do they confirm our expectation for robust growth through 2012, but they also show that the global market is expected to build on that strong performance in 2013 with further growth and in a year with no major events.” Buhlmann added that the forecasts “underline our view that advertising spend is now regarded by most corporations as far less discretionary than ever before.”
Global marketing budgets are shifting to emerging markets. While the U.S. remains an important influence, other regions are increasingly gaining recognition as centers of excellence for various marketing disciplines. That’s according to a new survey from the World Federation of Advertisers, (WFA) which reports that 60% of global marketers are shifting budgets to focus on new markets for growth. Nearly 95% of those polled in the survey believe future growth will come from outside the U.S. While the U.S. remains a key influencer of marketing trends, nearly three-quarters of the respondents said that marketing best practices are increasingly found outside the U.S. The survey polled 65 marketers, all members of the WFA, representing nearly $40 billion in global ad spending. According to the findings, the U.S. remains the go-to market for best practices in social media strategies. But in other areas of marketing, a wide range of different countries are now also considered centers of excellence. Case in point: mobile marketing. Asian countries, including Korea, Japan and China, lead the way. In the integrated marketing space, the U.S. is just one of a number of regions where best practices abound, including the UK, Continental Europe and Australia. The survey found a similar view pertaining to creative advertising where many European markets are seen as standouts. WFA also reported that global marketers were critical of the amount of attention that American marketers give to what happens beyond their shores. While nearly 90% of marketers outside the U.S. pay attention to what’s going on stateside, just 11% of those surveyed said they believed U.S. marketers pay enough attention to what goes on in the rest of the world. The release of the survey was timed to Wednesday’s Global Marketing Conference in New York, which this year is a joint effort of the WFA and the Association of National Advertisers.
A top Nielsen executive said the addition of Walmart data to its retail sales product will go back three years, allowing clients to make some year-over-year comparisons. The Walmart information is scheduled to go live some time in the second quarter. Over the past decade, Walmart -- which accounts for perhaps one-quarter of the U.S. retail business -- has withheld its data from Nielsen’s system. Last summer, however, Nielsen inked a deal to add the Bentonville, Ark.-based company’s results. “It represents a whole new view of the marketplace,” said Nielsen CFO Brian West at an investor event Monday. West said Nielsen is poised to benefit from the launch. Since deals are in place with manufacturers and other clients that use its sales analytics service; it doesn’t need to persuade clients to sign up. “This isn’t we’ll hope they’ll buy it,” West said. “It’s already committed to.” West said implementing the Walmart data into the system has been time-consuming for many reasons, including tracking it back for three years. Asked why Walmart opted to participate, West said the company is “looking to be innovative and contemporary and trying to understand their business.”
Media agency holding company Aegis Group reported 2011 revenue of nearly $1.8 billion, up 21% while tripling pre-tax profits which rose to $167 million. The numbers do not include results for research arm Synovate, which was sold in mid-2011. Aegis said its organic revenue growth (ORG), which excludes acquisitions and currency fluctuations, was up 9.9% for the year, almost double what the group achieved in 2010. That was higher than the major full service ad holding companies, although from a lower revenue base. WPP for example, with more than $16 billion in revenue last year reported organic growth of 5.3%, while the Omnicom Group, with nearly $14 billion in revenue reported 6.1% ORG for the year. Aegis said that strong performances from digital, faster growing regions and North America helped boost results. Revenues for the Americas totaled $340 million, up nearly 18% with most of the gain (17.2%) coming from organic growth. Asia Pacific revenue was up 87% to $346 million. And digital accounted for over one-third (35%) of the company’s revenues. The strong results were driven by “record-equaling” net new business for the year which totaled $2.7 billion, $700 million more than in 2010. That does not include the award for the $3 billion General Motors global media account, which occurred in January 2012. Aegis described that win as the “most significant” in the company’s history. Wins last year included Home Depot, a portion of Disney and eBay Europe. Aegis CEO Jerry Buhlmann characterized 2011 performance as “very strong…The successful sale of Synovate represented the largest structural change in our history and gives the Group increased flexibility to move ahead with our program of target acquisitions and investments.” He added that 18 acquisitions last year improved the company’s core capabilities and positioning in key markets. “This is in line with our strategy to increase revenue contribution from digital, faster-growing region and North America,” he said. Addressing 2012, Buhlmann stated: “We are optimistic about the outlook for the advertising sector,” this year, which is “supported by key sporting events and the U.S. presidential elections and we anticipate further success for the Group in the year ahead.”
When it launched to a generation of baby boomers in the early 1980s, the “M” in MTV stood for “music” -- but based on some new research, the letter now stands more for “Millennials,” the generation that is reshaping today’s consumer and media markets, and even MTV itself. While it’s no surprise that the Viacom network has been refocusing on the current youth market, it’s also allowing today’s youth to refocus MTV, both from the outside in, and the inside out. On the outside, MTV has just completed one of the most in-depth studies of the work habits of Millennials, the findings of which may surprise some. On the inside, it is using that research -- and some seemingly counterintuitive organizational strategies -- to transform its own workplace, in an effort to remain relevant with a generation MTV believes will reshape everything about, well, everything. “These are the people who are going to be the new idea generators,” says Nick Shore, senior vice president-strategic insights and research at MTV, in a briefing with MediaDailyNews. Shore, who oversaw the research (highlighted below and in an op-ed commentary in today’s edition), says many organizations, particularly marketers, think of Millennials as the same kind of slackers that the Generation Xers that preceded them were perceived as being, but the truth is that they have a strong worth ethic, and in some ways, integrate their work lives with their personal lives in an even bigger way than Boomers have. “They’re really different in the workplace,” he explains, noting: “If there are distinctions between things -- if you put things into boxes of black and white -- Millennials are really good at melting those boundaries, at creating a smoothification of things.” Shore believes this is among the key differences that set Millennials apart from preceding generations, and that companies that understand that will be able to tap their innovation, and create new products, services -- and yes, even work cultures -- for the future. He says MTV believes that so much that the first product it is using the research to transform is its own work culture. In an array of initiatives spawned by President of MTV Stephen Friedman, top MTV executives are now being told what to do by the youngest members of their teams. Friedman coins the concept “reverse mentoring,” and the idea was that the only way MTV’s largely GenX management team would be able to get inside the mindsets of Millennials would be to put them more in charge. Shore says it starts at the top, and that Friedman’s Millennial mentor has already has a profound influence on MTV and even its product: Friedman’s mentor came up with a new category in MTV’s vaunted Video Music Awards recognizing the “best video with a message.” Shore says his own Millennial mentor “is not shy,” and recently asked him “why we don’t get to review you.” In fact, he says an important distinction about Millennials in the workplace is that they actually want a “perpetual feedback loop.” Whereas Xers may have eschewed any feedback -- even an annual review -- Shore says, “Millennials are like, ‘Can you give me daily reviews?’ Their drive to self-improve is extremely high, and it reflects the world they grew up in, because they’re in a constant feedback loop.” Shore says that begins with their parents, the super-achieving Boomer generation that some criticize for over-parenting their kids -- a term Shore calls “peerenting” -- but also the media they grew up with, especially social media. Shore says MTV is in the process of “socializing” the research findings with some of MTV’s biggest clients, but the biggest impact of the new research so far is internal, both in terms of the way MTV is organized and in terms of its product. Because Shore also advises MTV’s programming team, some of the Millennials’ workplace perspectives have begun to infuse MTV’s new programming, especially new Millennial workplace series “Underemployed,” as well as some other series in development. Millennials In The Workplace Research Highlights
CBS, the model of consistency for TV advertisers, says it will return 18 series for the 2012-2013 season. But one major show left hanging is “Two and a Half Men,” the still high-rated Monday comedy that witnessed its own off-line drama with the ousting of actor Charlie Sheen and the arrival of Ashton Kutcher. CBS says negotiations are ongoing for the show. CBS returning shows include comedies “Big Bang Theory,” “How I Met Your Mother,” “Mike & Molly” and new comedy, “2 Broke Girls.” CBS dramas coming back include “NCIS," “NCIS: Los Angeles," “Hawaii Five-0," “Criminal Minds,” “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation” and new drama “Person of Interest.” Also on board: “The Mentalist,” “Blue Bloods” and “The Good Wife.” Returning reality shows include “Amazing Race,” “Undercover Boss,” and “Survivor.” News magazine shows include “60 Minutes” and “48 Hours Mystery.” Not included in the release of returning shows is new drama “Unforgettable.” CBS says season-to-date it is first in overall viewers, averaging a Nielsen 12.13 million viewers and adults 25-54, a 4.1 rating/10 share. It is second in among adults 18-49, 3.1/08. It adds that it has improved in all major viewing categories versus a year ago.
While the ad market has moved at a modest pace for the LIN station group this year the company expressed optimism Wednesday that an accelerating auto category will help ignite revenues in the months ahead. “It’s a bit of a slow start,” said CEO Vincent Sadusky on an earnings call. The group, with 32 stations in markets stretching from Indianapolis to Terre Haute, Ind., said ad dollars in the first quarter are running about 4% ahead of the same period last year. The auto category is up 13%, while spending by local dealers is up a higher rate (that was flat in the 2011 fourth quarter). But other core categories have been flat-to-slightly down, though home improvement, perhaps because of a mild winter, has had a bump. The robust auto business is a marked change from early last year when natural disasters led to Japanese marketers curtailing spending. Yet spending improved throughout 2011. “We believe the [auto] industry has finally returned to a more normalized spending pattern,” said Scott Blumenthal, a LIN executive vice president. While not commenting directly on LIN’s strategy, CEO Sadusky said he expects the M&A market for stations to heat up in 2012 with the credit markets improving and new revenue streams, namely retrans consent dollars, emerging in the industry. Separately, LIN plans to continue investing in companies, such as Nami Media, in the new media space to diversify its holdings. In the fourth quarter, when stripping out political dollars, company-wide revenues were up 11% to $108.5 million, though national ad dollars were down slightly. Operating income was down 32% to $29.8 million.
Nielsen says a recent study adds to the growing evidence showing there is now a direct connection between social media buzz and traditional TV ratings. In looking at a two-week period prior to a particular TV show finale, Nielsen says a 14% increase in social media buzz translated into a 1% rise in traditional TV ratings among young viewers 18-34. In speaking at the South by Southwest Interactive Conference in Austin, Tx. (SXSW), Jonathan Carson, chief executive officer of digital for The Nielsen Company, says this will continue to grow, due to increased smartphone and tablet usage and more real-time social conversations. Carson said: “TV is still the first screen, by far,” with TV consumption continuing to grow every quarter. “The social component just magnifies the engagement opportunity for advertisers that television has always offered.” Other TV executives on a panel discussion were also optimistic. MTV’s Kristin Frank recommended more incentives for fans to actively express their interest via social media. ESPN’s Michael Cupo said the real-time advantage of social media works well with sports programs that still attract viewers in real-time -- rather than on a time-shifted basis.
When it comes to customer experience, TV and Internet providers and services rate almost last across some 18 industries -- only health-care companies generally rate lower. A study from the Temkin Group of more than 200 companies -- and some 10,000 U.S. consumers -- rated 11 Internet companies and 10 TV companies. Only three of those 21 companies got "OK" approval -- Bright House Networks (a cable TV provider), Dish Network (a satellite TV provider) and Cablevision Systems (for its Internet service). Fifteen of the companies were rated "poor." This list includes AOL, AT&T (TV), Cablevision (TV), Comcast (TV), Comcast (Internet), Cox Communications, MSN, Qwest, Road Runner, Verizon, AT&T (Internet), DirecTV, Optimum (iO)/Cablevision, Time Warner Cable and Verizon (TV). Three received "very poor" ratings: Charter Communications (TV), Charter Communications (Internet), and EarthLink (Internet). Of all 206 companies in the survey, EarthLink and Charter Communications were the two lowest-rated companies. The survey says the consumer experience gained slight improvement in 2011 over 2010 for TV services but had a slight decline with Internet service providers. Companies on the upswing were: Cablevision (Internet), Comcast (Internet), AOL (Internet), Dish Network (TV), Bright House Networks (TV), DirecTV (TV), and Comcast (TV). Overall, "terrible customer experience remains an epidemic within the Internet services and TV services industries," stated Bruce Temkin, author of the report and Managing Partner of Temkin Group.
The fortunes of Saga Communications followed the rest of the radio industry last year, with revenues dipping in the fourth quarter and the full-year results basically flat for 2011. Total revenues at Saga -- which operates about 100 radio stations in 26 markets nationwide, as well as a handful of radio stations in Texas and Missouri -- fell 3.6% to $32.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2011. Revenues for the full year slipped marginally, with a 0.4% decrease to $127.3 million. Like other big broadcast radio groups, Saga’s performance in the fourth quarter was likely affected by the absence of political advertising related to the 2010 midterm elections. The company also stands to benefit from renewed political ad spending in fierce contests this year, including the ongoing Republican presidential primary and the general elections. Saga compares favorably with many of its larger peers in carrying a much smaller amount of debt, at $69.1 million, down from $96.1 million at the end of 2010. That compares to $2.9 billion of debt for Cumulus Media, following its merger with Citadel, and $20 billion for Clear Channel Communications, following its private equity buyout. The radio business in general had a mediocre 2011. According to the Radio Advertising Bureau, total radio ad revenues decreased 2% in the fourth quarter of 2011 to $4.5 billion. For the full year, total ad revenues increased 1% to $17.4 billion.
Wednesday’s New York Times op-ed page offers a potent reminder of how important reputation management is for brands and companies. The page carries an extraordinary piece by Greg Smith, entitled "Why I’m Leaving Goldman Sachs." Smith, who worked for a dozen years at the storied investment house, most recently as a regional head for its U.S. equities derivatives business, talks about the firm’s “toxic and destructive” culture. The firm has become an institution where people openly talk about “ripping their clients off” and a place that has become “too much about shortcuts and not enough about achievement.” The NYT site was loaded with 400 comments. Buried in the feedback was a brief “we don’t agree” statement from Goldman, as well as a similar missive emailed to the Goldman staff from management. Next month (April 25-27), the American Association of Advertising Agencies is holding its first public relations conference in five years -- and the Goldman episode is an ideal example of why now is a good time to hold the event. “PR has always been charged with managing reputation, but the landscape has changed so dramatically over the last couple of years with digital and social media that agencies, companies and brands have to be more agile and more nimble than ever” to do it right, said Janet Northen, partner and executive vice president of agency communications at ad shop McKinney and co-chair (along with Deborah Zdobinski) of the 4A's PR conference. The conference has secured one of adland’s big honchos to kick off things off with a keynote -- Bob Jeffrey, the global chairman and CEO of WPP’s JWT, who will discuss how the shop used PR to reposition itself in the marketplace. In a separate presentation, Marian Salzman, CEO, Euro RSCG Worldwide PR North America, will discuss how to leverage social media and “trendology” to build brands and impact business. The 4A’s doesn’t hold an annual PR conference, Northen said. But if there’s enough new activity in the space to make it worthwhile for attendees, then the trade group considers it. “This year it felt like it was really time because PR seems to be leading the conversation,” she said. “The job has been changing so much with digital media and many new ways to engage consumers. We’re just being called on to be different.” Other sessions will discuss the changing relationships between journalists and PR people, managing social media, and best approaches to dealing with trade organizations and award shows.
The fact that the Obama campaign alone will raise a billion dollars -– most of which will line the already deep pockets of big-media interests -– tells us just about everything we need to know about the state of American politics and the true function of big media in American democracy. I’m not a party man, so I don’t buy into either side of the political duopoly that the media has carved neatly into polarized red and blue states to facilitate the sale of political advertising. (Much of which is paid for by public campaign dollars). As far as I’m concerned, the only real difference between the red states and the blues states is that the red states are full of media addicts who do nothing but consume 12 hours of media each day, while the blues states are full of media addicts who not only consume 12 hours of media each day, but also produce, sell and distribute almost all of the media that everyone consumes. We hear much nowadays about the corrupt influence of institutional money in politics. True, money buys influence, but big media (and campaign finance reform) always focuses on the wrong end of the campaign finance continuum -- where the money comes from. The real focus belongs on the other end: where the money winds up. Because it doesn’t stop with the politicians. It ends up in the aforementioned deep pockets of big media. Hence, rise of perpetual political campaigns as described last week in "Fear and Envy on the Campaign Trail -- Part 1." Big media minions may talk ceaselessly about the corrosive influence of institutional money in politics, but they never examine the corrosive influence of big media –- except as opportunities to excoriate each other through character assassination. They never talk about where the institutional campaign money actually winds up because any focus on that instantly extends any discussion of collusion and conspiracy beyond the power brokers of Wall Street and the Beltway (the obvious villains) to the real benefactors of political graft: big media -- the self-described purveyors of truth and democracy. Big media’s self-serving focus on where the money comes from (instead of where the money goes) is designed to polarize the dialogue and inflate the demand for more media. Likewise, fair-and-balanced, media-bias, red-state-versus-blue-state and all related arguments are nothing more than media inventions, artifacts designed to inflame political passions and sell more media. Big money in politics is all about big media, and big media is how politicians buy votes these days. That said, all of the above describes a far more sinister and insidious mechanism at work: our addiction and fealty to all things media -- the single biggest threat to our democracy and the quality of our lives in the 21st century. The demise of American politics and the corruption of democracy are predictable byproducts of our descent into the grips of a media-driven mega-addiction. Left unchecked, our addictions -- regardless of the narcotic -- eventually become moderators of all our internal debates. Eventually, they dictate our behaviors and determine how and where and with whom we spend our time and money. Those things that protect and elevate the self-serving interests of the addiction float to the top as priorities, while those things that challenge its hegemony are buried and neglected. Big media’s focus on where the campaign money comes from protects and promotes the interests of our addiction to media, and therefore floats to the top. Conversely, any focus on where the campaign money winds up challenges the interests of the addiction and gets buried in the back of the book -- if it appears at all. My advice is to follow the money, and know that where it comes from is never as important as where it winds up.
Millennials in the workplace seems to be the topic d’jour in business media right now. And small wonder: around 10,000 millennials turn 21 every day in America right now, and by some estimates there arealready 40 million millennials in the workforce.While much of the media commentary can seem to caricature the Millennial worker as an "entitled” hot house flower, MTV's new "No Collar Workers" study seeks to understand the working experiencethrough Millennial eyes...and to help employers decode how to leverage the abundant creative energies of their cubicle-dwelling populations.What the data and feedback point to a generation primed to give their all, but calling for meaning, mentorship and meritocracy in a workplace that can channel what they bring to the table.Raised by "peer-ents" who encouraged them to constantly learn, grow and self actualize, the quest for meaningful work that makes a difference has become a core Millennial trait. Multiply that by apressure-cooker educational experience and empowering technology -- and you have a newly minted high octane workforce in the wings.What could be misinterpreted as "career pickiness" is an expression of a need to connect deeply with the work...• “Loving what I do” outranked salary and a big bonus. (This is reflected in Pew’s recent study, indicating a job that benefits society outranks high salary.)• 89% agree “it’s important to be constantly learning at my job” • Half of Millennials would “rather have no job than a job they hate”• 95% are “motivated to work harder when I know where my work is going”What could be misinterpreted as "self importance" is a deeper sense of having many new ideas and wanting to contribute, as well as a desire to have their tech skills and savvy tapped by senior managers.• 76% believe “my boss could learn a lot from me”• 65% say “I should be mentoring older coworkers when it comes to tech and getting things done”This doesn’t mean they don’t think they have a lot to learn from a boss. It's a sense that learning is a two-way street, regardless of seniority, an "ideocracy" if you will. And from our own experience,when we leverage generational creativity it's a win-win for the company, the workforce and the consumer.A small window into intergenerational views of work, and how different they can be: In the study we had Boomers and Millennials send us anonymous postcards in which they explained what it would take for acompany to get them to do the best work possible. A typical Boomer response: “Give me my objectives and get out of my way.” A typical Millennial response: “I need flexibility, respect… and snacks.”Whether you lean toward generational fan or critic, it’s clear that Millennials are destined to be a highly transformative force in the workplace. The following findings from MTV’s study can help guidecorporations toward creating an environment where M’s thrive, and so their power can be harnessed into a real competitive advantage.•Workplace 2.0 is a life-work “Smoothie”• Nearly 9 in 10 Millennials want their workplace to be social and fun.• 93% want a job where they can be themselves.• A full 70% of Millennials say they need “me time” at work versus just 39% of Boomers.71% want their coworkers to be like a second familyThink of all the distinctions you can between work life and nonwork life…from the clothes you wear, to the behaviors you exhibit, to the mind-set you bring to it. Now put all that into a blender. That’s thework-life smoothie. The boxes and all turned into one big box, called living.In “No Collar Workers,” we had Millennials and Boomers draw pictures of their dress code at work and “at play.” Our Boomers depicted their work self to be formal and nonrevealing of personal interests andstyle, a full-blown outfit shift after work. Our Millennials drew almost the exact same image of themselves at work and play...they just added bangles and hairspray to the outfit to get it ready for nightlife!• Career 2.0 is about first inventing a job, then doing it….• 66% of Millennials agree they want to invent their own position at their jobs.• 60% of Millennials agree “if I can’t find a job I like, I will try and figure out a way to create my own job.”• 83% of Millennials are “looking for a job where my creativity is valued”How would you describe the team of Millennials that your director of social media gathers together to pick their brains on how their peers are using social media? How do you describe the responsibilities ofthe youngest employees who are frequently called into brainstorms with the C-suite to help imagine the company’s future products? The job description of the future is a co-creation with the employee, an ongoing innovation in itself that responds to the shifting needs of the game and the passions of the players. Reid Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn has described this as a state of 'permanent Beta', a state that's native to Millennials.• Leadership 2.0 is Yoda-ship• 75% of Millennials want a mentorOr as one participant in our study said “I don’t so much want a boss, more of a Yoda.” Raised in a very different nonhierarchical parenting paradigm, where Boomers see “The Man” and Xers see “authority hurdles,” Milennials see friends, life coaches and guides.• Training 2.0 is listening• Nine out of 10 Millennials want senior people in their company to listen to their ideas and opinions. The new organization is the listening organization. Listening to social media, listening to their customers, and listening to the next generation. Really listening, then responding. Listening, it has beensaid, is the purest form of inquiry.In generational theory, Millennials conform to the ‘hero’ archetype (versus say loner, magician or rebel). Heroes go on journeys to places never before visited, to discover new truths, to prove there isanother way. In many ways, this generation is uniquely equipped to see around corners and over the horizon -- and that’s just the kind of foresight that is worth its weight in silicon.