In another telling signal that the global ad expansion may be running out of steam, a global tracking study of the confidence of marketers to increase their budgets declined to one of its lowest recent points in August. The data, released this morning by London-based ad market tracker and research database WARC, indicates that marketer confidence slid worldwide and in each of the major regions it tracks -- although European confidence declined at a slower rate than the rest of the world. WARC’s global marketer confidence index declined to a 54.4 in August -- down 2.2 points from July and 1.2 points from August 2013. Marketer confidence currently is highest in Europe, with an index of 56.0 in August, “suggesting improving conditions overall despite a 1.2 point fall from the previous month,” WARC said. WARC’s analysts added that relative “optimism is also high in the Americas,” despite the fact that it’s declining and dropped 2.5 points from July and 3.1 points from a year earlier. “Robust trading conditions aided the positive outlook in both Europe and the Americas, with index readings of 56.0 and 55.2 respectively showing marketers remain confident about their business conditions,” WARC said, adding: “Indicators are also positive for Asia Pacific, where the index registered 51.8. The global index for trading conditions, which factors in these regions, alongside Africa and the Middle East, stood at 56.8 this month.” Among the major media, confidence levels dipped for each medium. The global index for TV budgets stood at 49.7, reflecting the second month of declines for the world’s largest ad medium.
Worldwide, TV viewing remains the single biggest media activity. On average, 2.58 hours per day are consumed globally, according to London-based GlobalWebIndex’s recent Media Consumption report. That's 23% of total time spent on the media. The U.S. remains the biggest TV market, with an average of 4.33 hours a day. Those in China watch the least TV overall, at 2.2 hours. Online TV viewing continues to rise -- now at 0.7 hours a day. That's a 6% share of all media time. Online viewing now accounts for 33% of total TV time among 16- to-24-year-olds. This compares with 7% for people on the other end of the age spectrum -- 55- to-64-year-olds. China watches the most TV online -- at 1.03 hours a day. U.S. Internet users watch just under one hour a day of TV online. Mobile usage now accounts for 30% of the time we spend on online media -- an increase from 22% in 2012. Those 16 to 24 are the biggest consumers of media via the mobile Internet -- at 2.77 hours per day, up from 1.88 in 2012. The report is culled from a global sample size of more than 40,000 Internet users in 32 countries.
A-B InBev has cut the number of agencies participating in its media agency review to three shops, including Omincom’s OMD, WPP’s MediaCom and Publicis Groupe’s Spark, according to sources. Dentsu Aegis Network’s Vizeum and Havas Media had also been pitching, but did not make it to the next round, per sources. The agencies declined to comment or could not be immediately reached. Word of the brewing giant’s U.S. media agency review surfaced last month. The shop spent around $575 million on ads in the U.S. last year according to Kantar. Brands include Budweiser, Bud Light, Stella Artois and Beck's among others. It’s the latest in a series of reviews that the brewer has launched around the world, including a pan-European review in June. Earlier, the company held reviews in China and Latin America. The U.S. review comes after the company appointed Jom Socquest U.S. Vice President of Marketing earlier this year. Socquest replaced Paul Chibe, who hired Starcom, a unit of Publicis Groupe’s Starcom MediaVest Group, in 2011 to assist it with its internal media planning and research capabilities for all the company’s U.S. beer brands across national, local and digital media. That award was the first time in nearly two decades that A-B -- the maker of Budweiser, Bud Light, and other brands -- hired an outside agency for help with media chores in the U.S. Until now the brewer has continued to handle media buying in-house.
Twelve weeks into the summer season, ABC and NBC are tied for the lead. Both ABC and NBC have a Nielsen 1.4 rating/5 share among key 18-49 viewers. Both networks are down 7% versus the same time period a year ago. Fox and CBS are next with Fox at 1.2/4, down 14%, and CBS slipping to a 1.1/4 -- off 8%. The CW is flat at a 0.3/1.Total viewership shows a different picture, with every broadcast network but Fox either flat or gaining. CBS is up 1% to 5.83 million prime-time viewers, while NBC is flat at 5.48 million viewers. ABC is up 1% to 5.10 million, and CW is 7% higher to 962,000. ABC has seen strong results early on from the NBA Finals -- even though it aired a five-game series versus the seven-game series a year ago. The network averaged a 6.1/20 among 18-49 viewers -- the same average as the year before. NBC continues to get positive results from “America’s Got Talent,” with its most recent Tuesday rating at a 2.0/7. CBS best is coming from “Big Brother,” a 2.2/7 for its recent Sunday outing. On Monday, Fox grabbed strong summer viewership ratings from “MasterChef” with a 2.0/7.
Snapchat is reportedly in talks with a number of brands and media companies about carrying their content -- and ads -- on its popular messaging platform. The discussions center around a new service, dubbed Snapchat Discovery, which would “show content and ads to Snapchat users,” The Wall Street Journal reports. Sources tell WSJ that Discovery is scheduled to debut by November. So far, “at least a dozen media companies, including newspapers, magazines and television networks, have discussed providing content.”
More broadcast TV stations are changing hands, with this week’s transactions between Media General, Meredith Corp., LIN Media, Hearst Corp. and Sinclair Broadcast Group. The deals will clear the way for Media General and LIN Media to merge, by satisfying regulatory requirements regarding station ownership. In the first deal, Meredith Corp. is buying WALA-TV -- a Fox affiliate serving Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL -- from Media General for around $86 million. The area is the nation’s 59th-largest broadcast TV market. Meredith Local Media Group President Paul Karpowicz stated: “Both Mobile and Pensacola are desirable destinations for tourism and relocation. And we are excited about the political advertising dollars that flow into Florida every cycle.” The acquisition brings Meredith’s total station portfolio to 15 local broadcast operations across the U.S. Media General and LIN Media are also selling stations in New Bedford, MA, Green Bay-Appleton, WI, and Savannah, GA, via a station swap with Sinclair Broadcast Group. Under the terms of the station swap, Media General is giving up its NBC affiliate in Providence-New Bedford, WJAR, and LIN is giving up WTGS in Savannah and two stations in Green Bay-Appleton -- its Fox affiliate WLUK and CW affiliate WCWF. In return, Media General is picking up Sinclair’s Fox affiliate KXRM and CW affiliate KXTU, both located in the Colorado Springs-Pueblo market, as well as Sinclair’s MyNetworkTV affiliate WTTA in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota, FL. Finally, Media General is selling its NBC affiliate -- WVTM in Birmingham, AL -- to Hearst Corp., which is also acquiring LIN’s ABC station WJCL in Savannah. When the deals and merger are complete, Media General and LIN will own 71 stations across the U.S. This is the latest in a series of transactions in the local TV arena. Previously, Meredith acquired KMOV in St. Louis and KTVK in Phoenix, and is also close to completing its purchase of WGGB, an ABC affiliate in Springfield, MA."Digital transmitter for TV, mobile and multimedia broadcast" photo from Shutterstock.
Programmatic video ad platform TubeMogul on Wednesday announced that it has inked a partnership with Integral Ad Science that will bring Integral’s viewability measurement and fraud detection software to the TubeMogul platform. TubeMogul already offers clients a viewability measurement solution, but the addition of Integral's software gives marketers an independent, third-party measurement vendor. Integral’s viewability tech is also accredited by the Media Rating Council (MRC) for display advertising, but not yet for video ads. “Integral’s reporting and technology will be available through our dashboard, however, advertisers will not have to use it -- it’s simply another layer of third-party verification,” said Jason Lopatecki, chief strategy officer at TubeMogul. “Our clients can use other third-party verification providers in conjunction with our software.” The partnership also brings pre-bid data and tech to TubeMogul’s video ad platform -- something Integral’s CRO Michael Iantosca said is one of the main benefits of the deal. Included is the ability to block potentially fraudulent inventory before the impression is served, per Lopatecki. Integral’s True Advertising Quality (TRAQ) scores -- which grades the quality of inventory on a scale of 1 to 1000 -- will also be available via TubeMogul.
Seattle's Space Needle is entering another dimension after working with several agencies and companies to transform its physical experience into virtual reality. “One of the greatest aspects of this project has been the local partnerships that made these experiences possible. Microsoft technology played an integral role, as did several top creative and interactive development agencies,” said Karen Olson, vice president of marketing, Space Needle. “We pushed beyond what we thought was possible to offer our guests -- and locals alike -- experiences that are totally unique, memorable, and shareable. We’re heightening our guests’ ability to discover Seattle with new experiences that deliver more interaction, insights, connections, smiles and wow." This project was several years in the making. The Space Needle organization took a year to complete the concepts and launch them into development and production. Then, Olson assembled a dream team of experts, an “Oceans 11” of bringing the best of each expertise to the table to pull off an amazing project, she says. "We’re listening to our guests and we’re looking to the future," says Olson. "Our guests have been bringing 'little computers' in their pockets for years. They come with smart phones and tablets in hand. Their expectations have changed. They don’t just use their devices for calling and directions any more. They use their devices to enhance their vacations. So it only made sense that we developed a mobile app and digital experiences that helped our Guests see Seattle in different ways." The entry point for visitors is the Space Needle Mobile App, which serves as a guide and educational tool. Developed by creative agency Creature and technology firm Fuerte, the app enables users to book their visit, presents alternative views with augmented reality, and helps visitors locate and learn about additional key points of interest in town. Through the app, guests are able to point their iPhone or Android phone at one of several unique “Space Spots” on the ground and experience “augmented reality" with fireworks and space ships. Production company Voda Studios helped to develop the video and photography, and capture services for this experience. Working with Creature for creative direction and content production and tech firm Belle & Wissel, design firm Stimulant designed and developed the 520 Teleporter digital kiosks, which instantly "teleport" guests from where they stand, 520 feet in the air, down to other notable locations in Seattle. These digital kiosks incorporate Microsoft’s Photosynth technology to recreate places in high-quality resolution and full 3D. For instance, the Pike Place Market features fish flying through the air into a crowd of onlookers, and users are able to virtually climb aboard one of the houseboats made famous by the film “Sleepless in Seattle.” Guests can also take a 360 degree tour of “never seen before” experiences at the octopus tank at the Seattle Aquarium and via an athlete's viewpoint for the Seattle Sounders FC at CenturyLink Field. Entrepreneurial consulting company Idea Gateway, Olson Kundig Architects, Streamline Studios, and Group Delphi, which installs interpretive designs and displays, also worked on these kiosks. "Long-term relevancy of any digital installation is critical," says Nathan Moody, Design Director, Stimulant. "As technology opens up new possibilities for rich experiences, we can update the software application itself without incurring any additional hardware or construction costs. Even if a new method of sensing a visitor's presence is desired, sensors are so inexpensive and reasonably universal that even hardware can be added cheaply and efficiently. This makes bespoke digital experiences extremely cost effective over the lifetime of a physical installation." At the same time, creative technology studio OK Rocket worked with Creature, Idea Gateway, Belle & Wissel and Fuerte to develop the SpaceBook, an online Needle memory book that stores photos. Each entrance ticket is embedded with a code that unlocks a unique digital photo experience. And visitors can also step into the picture and put their arms around the Needle for a photo or walk on a virtual glass floor. Meanwhile, Belle & Wissel, Olson Kundig Architects, Creature, Streamline Studios, and contracting company Schuchart collaborated to introduce the 20’ x 8’ digital touchscreen SkyPadTM - known as the Digital Media Wall - that displays thousands of photos of visits to the Space Needle from the early 60s to today. On the Observation Deck, guests can post photos of their own experience or pin their hometown on a digital globe, showing others who have visited from the same location. The Space Needle is also introducing two additional photo experiences, a SkyHigh Selfie and a ZoomieTM, the ultimate "zoom selfie." This high-level of corporate involvement presented many challenges. For one, timing was an issue. "We didn’t want to miss summer," says Olson. "So, to do that, we set up a project team that worked in parallel – a team that worked on the app (across all platforms), the interactive touch screen wall, the view-based kiosks, and the photo kiosks –all at the same time. We stacked our team to hit our timeline. We doubled up on project managers, on interactive developers, on various platforms – and all executed in parallel, sharing key learnings across teams as we went." Then, there was the challenge of cross-communication. "It took a tremendous amount of collaboration and flexibility from our partners – and they did it. Everyone came to the table to develop and launch amazing experiences. Which we did. And we made it for summer. And according to our Guests, it’s a hit," says Olson. This new technology will be promoted in advertising, though Olson says the main draw is still the architecture. "So we do talk about our new digital experiences, but we know that’s not the reason they’d be coming to the Space Needle. It’s just something that will add to their experience."
Social networking service LinkedIn has agreed to pay $1.25 million in order to settle a class-action lawsuit stemming from a 2012 data breach. The proposed settlement, which was outlined in court papers filed last week, calls for LinkedIn to pay up to $50 to some of the users who purchased premium memberships to the service. The social networking company also promises that for the next five years, it will protect users' passwords by “salting” and “hashing” them. “This settlement provides an extraordinary result,” lawyers for the plaintiffs say in a motion asking U.S. District Court Judge Edward Davila in San Jose, Calif. to approve the deal. “By providing significant direct cash to the class and valuable prospective relief, the instant settlement exceeds the majority of privacy settlements that have won preliminary and/or final approval.” If it gets the OK, the settlement will resolve a class-action lawsuit brought by Virginia resident Khalilah Gilmore-Wright, a paid LinkedIn subscriber. She alleged that she wouldn't have purchased a premium LinkedIn membership if she had known the company used “obsolete” security measures. The litigation stems from an incident in 2012, when hackers obtained access to the company's servers and then posted 6.4 million users' passwords online. The settlement terms provide that LinkedIn's paid users can submit a claim, but only if they declare that they read the privacy policy and were influenced by the company's statements about security. Between 2007 and 2012, LinkedIn garnered around 800,000 premium subscribers, who paid at least $19.95 a month for membership, according to court papers. But lawyers for Wright estimate that only 20,000 to 50,000 subscribers will be able to qualify for payments from the settlement fund. The deal provides that any money that isn't distributed to class members will go to three three nonprofits: the Center for Democracy and Technology, World Privacy Forum and the Carnegie Mellon CyLab Usable Privacy and Security Laboratory. News of the deal comes several months after lawyers for both sides met with a mediator. Davila will hold a hearing in January about whether to grant the settlement preliminary approval.
Want an Uber ride to go with that grande latte? Through the Starbucks app—and a small group of other third-party apps—people can now request a car without having to download the Uber app. The new feature comes as a result of the ride-sharing company releasing an API (application programming interface) that lets developers add Uber features to their apps. Besides Starbucks, other initial partners incorporating Uber into apps includes Expensify, Hinge, Hyatt Hotels & Resorts, Momento, OpenTable, Tempo Smart Calendar, Time Out, TripAdvisor, TripCase and United Airlines. An Uber blog post indicated each has tailored the service to the particular functions of their apps. By ordering an Uber car to a favorite restaurant from the OpenTable app, for instance, a driver will arrive already knowing where you want to go. The United app shows the ETA of the closest drivers and fare estimates, so a user can spend less getting to and from the airport. In the Hyatt app, someone can book a room and a ride to the hotel at the same time. Uber said it’s limiting the ride-ordering capability for now to 11 launch partners so as not to overwhelm its network of drivers in 170 cities globally. But all app developers can incorporate other Uber features, such as passing an address to the Uber app, displaying pickup times, providing fare estimates and accessing trip history. For a “limited time,” Uber is offering new users up to $30 off their first ride through the partner apps. Additionally, it’s launching an affiliate program that lets developers earn credits toward free Uber rides as an incentive to build the service into their apps. They’ll get $5 in credit for every new rider and the opportunity to have their app featured on the Uber site. The step comes a day after the red-hot start-up announced hiring former Obama campaign manager and White House adviser David Plouffe as senior vice president of policy and strategy. Plouffe is expected to lead Uber’s efforts to address regulatory and political opposition to the company’s disruptive business model, especially from the taxi industry.
You’ve no doubt heard about the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge. With its incredible success and somewhat annoying ubiquity, you’d think it would have kicked the you-know-what by now and been left in the dust by some other, hotter, social media trend. But this ice bucket thing sure has legs (To use a phrase perhaps better suited for the Kool-Aid Pitcher.) And it’s not going anywhere. Indeed, according to tallies updated daily by the ALS Association on its Web site, Wednesday, August 19 was the most profitable day of fund raising yet, with $8.6 million received to make a total of $31. 5 million since July 29. That’s more than 16 times the amount the association received in the same period last year. And that victory can’t all be attributed to the Niagara of endless cold-water-puns that flow so easily for the media covering it. Rather, there’s genius at its core. Let us count the ways: Love it or hate it, it’s for a good cause, so you can feel smug either way. Either take the challenge, and in turn acknowledge the person who challenged you and challenge others, which allows you to strategize in your career or social groups, nominating three more people who can help you. Or, show others that you are smart, famous and connected. Finally, you can use it to extract pay back. Oh, right, and raise awareness. On the other hand, if you think it’s stupid, and wasteful of water when California is having a terrible drought, and also ruins a good hair cut or blow out for no reason, you can write a check for $100 and avoid the sop. And yes, the whole gets dumped on or pay thing is a bit counter-intuitive. You don’t want people to learn to do something outrageous to get out of contributing to charity. But with the flood of celebrities coming into it — and with Charlie Sheen actually doing something right and dumping $10,000 in to the cause — the rules have morphed into doing the challenge and paying. 1) There are various stories floating around about its origins. But the challenge didn't achieve true virality until ALS sufferer Pete Frates in Boston picked up the mantel. His affecting story spread to his local communities, the sports community, and his friends. 2) It happened to come along at a time of unalloyed horror, both locally and in the world. (And I don’t use that word lightly.) Amid the crippling news of Robin Williams’ suicide, the awful situation in Ferguson, Missouri, the unspeakable beheading by ISIS, war in the Mideast and an outbreak of Ebola in Africa, over which we are obviously powerless, this allows us one small act that can help us feel part of a nobler human race. Lower down to the ground, it shows you’re a good sport and will even endure momentary pain for a good cause. It also allows for an important family conversation and a fun activity at a time between the end of camp and the start of school. 3) My favorite videos were the the simplest ones, involving a backyard, a driveway, or a local park, a parent or two, and a kid who could lift a bucket full of ice. (Which is a lot harder than it sounds.) Some of the kids were very funny. The grownups who were self-dousers — with little kids shrieking behind them in glee — worked well too. Because, after all, how many opportunities do kids get to wallop — or see their parents walloped — on camera? Though it entails some technology to record and share the video, the challenge requires only two of the lowest tech tools that have been around since the late 19th century: ice and a bucket. Symbolizing life, birth, cleansing and satiety, pools of water are irresistible. That’s why most county fairs come with dunking booths, and why cities set up sprinklers for kids in hot weather. But at the same time, the challenge also feeds brilliantly into the social media need for narcissistic preening. Whole companies could line up workers in their logo T-shirts and show what camaraderie and solidarity they feel in the trenches, so to speak. Also, what jolly, good souls the bosses are. (I have to say I really enjoyed Bill Gates’ video. It’s perfect that he engineered an involved Rube Goldberg-like bucket drop and wore gray pants and a buttoned down, long-sleeve shirt to get poured on. And didn’t even flinch. Zuckerberg was a perfect borg and didn’t flinch either. Nor did Martha Stewart, but she did shimmy.) Meanwhile, while collecting likes and retweets, the individual soakers could flatter themselves by getting involved in a vanity project while outwardly showing no vanity at all. You mean me have an ego? Are you kidding—I’m in my schlumpiest clothes with my hair all wet! (Although Kathie Lee Gifford did hers in her elaborately spa-like bathtub, apparently in the nude.) So you can feel superior for any number of reasons. Most importantly, ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s Disease, is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that affects nerve cells in the brain and the spinal cord. Eventually, people with ALS lose the ability to initiate and control muscle movement, which often leads to total paralysis and death within two to five years of diagnosis. It’s a terrible, terrible disease, that deserves all of this sudden spotlight and money for research. I also like the fact that the ALS Association provides a number of services for those with the disease, in addition to funding research. But speaking of narcissism, for the record, I gave a contribution without doing the video. I was nominated, and thought —or, more characteristically, overthought — about it. I worried I’d have a heart attack — you think Woody Allen is a hypochondriac! But mostly, I was concerned that by posting the video, I’d only collect a bunch of pity likes. Seriously, this is a wonderful example of movement marketing, a no-lose idea that came along in the right place at the right time. Putin, your turn.
Netflix is now paying Time Warner extra fees in order to interconnect directly with its network, which should result in better-quality streaming video. The so-called “peering” deal -- which reportedly was signed in June -- is rolling out this month, according to GigaOm. Earlier this year, Netflix announced similar deals with Comcast, AT&T and Verizon. The precise terms have never been revealed, but Netflix's paid peering deals generally call for the company to pay extra fees to ISPs in order to connect directly with their servers, as opposed to sending data through an intermediary like Cogent or Level 3. Although Netflix has been signing these deals with Internet service providers, the company isn't happy about doing so. "This year we reluctantly agreed to pay AT&T, Comcast, and Verizon for access to our mutual subscribers, who were seeing a rapid decline in their Netflix viewing experience because of congestion at the connection point where we transfer content to the ISP,” Hastings wrote in Wired on Tuesday, shortly before the Time Warner deal came to light. “We'll never realize broadband's potential if large ISPs erect a pay-to-play system that charges both the sender and receiver for the same content.” In March, shortly after signing the peering agreement with Comcast in March, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings publicly called on the Federal Communications Commission to enact “strong” net neutrality rules, which he says would prohibit broadband providers from charging interconnection tolls. Several months later, the FCC launched an investigation into paid peering. "Consumers need to understand what is occurring when the services they pay for do not deliver the content they desire," FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler stated at the time. So far, the agency reportedly has asked seven Internet service providers to explain the details of their interconnection arrangements with content companies. At the same time, Wheeler has indicated that he doesn't believe that paid peering arrangements contradict net neutrality principles. That's because, according to Wheeler, net neutrality principles apply to traffic as it travels between ISPs' servers and customers' homes -- but not between content providers like Netflix and servers.
Next week’s Emmy Awards already feel like something of a non-event, largely because they are taking place on the last Monday of August during a week when people are thinking about anything and everything other than television. It’s the time for last-minute vacations, sending the younger kids back to school and getting the older ones off to college. It is not a coincidence that most daytime and late-night shows will be in rerun mode that week -- many have already begun running repeats this week. Along with the week between Christmas and New Year’s this is not a prime time for TV. But there it is -- the annual celebration and promotion of the very best that television offers, presented at a time when relatively few people will care. Those of us who do care will simply carry on with business as usual and hope that Emmy benefits from better scheduling next year. For critics, business as usual means offering predictions and preferences in Emmy’s major categories -- but even that annual undertaking feels a bit pointless this year, perhaps because there were so many surprises in major categories last year. Merritt Wever started last year’s show off by dashing everyone’s hopes of a perfect Emmy scorecard with her wholly unexpected but very much deserved win as Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series for her work in Showtime’s “Nurse Jackie.” The shocks and surprises kept coming: Tony Hale of HBO’s “Veep” as Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series; Bobby Cannavale of HBO’s “Boardwalk Empire” as Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series; Jeff Daniels of HBO’s “The Newsroom” as Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series; and more. Will there be similar surprises during this year’s show? One can only hope; they certainly make for a lively telecast. Meantime, here are my predictions and preferences for the Drama Series categories. Those for the Comedy Series categories will follow tomorrow. As always, I’ll make note of the series and performers who weren’t nominated but should have been as I address each area. Outstanding Drama Series Prediction: “Breaking Bad” (AMC) Preference: “Breaking Bad” Should have been nominated: “The Good Wife” (CBS) Had it been nominated, “The Good Wife” would have had my full support in this category. For reasons that defy satisfying explanation “Wife’s” best season yet was shamefully overlooked in favor of half-seasons of two shows (“Breaking Bad” and “Mad Men”) and a program that should have been in the miniseries category (HBO’s “True Detective”). But if we have to play by the flawed rules of the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences I’m going to stand by “Breaking Bad,” because the power of the eight episodes nominated here far exceed that of the other nominees (including HBO’s “Game of Thrones,” PBS’ Downton Abbey” and Netflix’s “House of Cards”). Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series Prediction: Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective” Preference: Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad” Should have been nominated: James Spader, “The Blacklist” (NBC); Matthew Rhys, “The Americans” (FX) One can argue that James Spader and Matthew Rhys gave two of the most emotionally complex performances of the year. The same is true of Bryan Cranston in every season of “Breaking Bad,” which is why I would prefer that he win from among the actual nominees. But this has been Matthew McConaughey’s year and I don’t see it ending now -- especially because he was so damn good in “Detective.” (The other nominees are Jeff Daniels of “The Newsroom,” Jon Hamm of “Mad Men,” Woody Harrelson of “True Detective” and Kevin Spacey of “House of Cards.”) Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series Prediction: Robin Wright, “House of Cards” Preference: Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife” Should have been nominated: Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black” (BBC America) Why the egregiously overlooked Tatiana Maslany was not nominated last year or this year for her work in “Orphan Black” is one of the great Emmy mysteries of the day. Not only should she have been nominated; she should have won both times. Sticking with the actual nominees, I like to think voting members of ATAS would give this award to Julianna Margulies, not simply because she deserves it but also to compensate for failing to acknowledge her show. As noted above, I think Robin Wright might be the spoiler here, and she certainly deserves recognition for carrying “House of Cards” through its uneven second season. If voters have been feeling lazy they might go with a three-peat for Claire Danes of Showtime’s “Homeland,” which would be disappointing but not an outrage. And then there is Lizzy Caplan, who turned in a sweet performance of great grace and style in Showtime’s “Masters of Sex.” A win for her here would be most welcome and even more surprising, seeing as her series and her marvelous co-star Michael Sheen were passed over. Lastly, I don’t know why Michelle Dockery of “Downton Abbey” and Kerry Washington of ABC’s “Scandal” are among the nominees while Keri Russell of “The Americans” and the slighted Ms. Maslany are not. Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series Prediction: Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad” Preference: Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan” (Showtime) Should have been nominated: It’s not an issue. While I wish there had been room here for Michael Kelly of “House of Cards” overall I think Emmy got this category right. Aaron Paul would appear to be the certain winner here, but that’s what we all said last year. If he takes home a third Emmy for “Breaking Bad” I won’t complain, as his performance throughout was consistently brilliant. I would go with Jon Voight for giving life to a character quite unlike any other on television in “Ray Donovan.” Previous winner Peter Dinklage is also a strong contender for what many critics believe was his strongest season yet on “Game of Thrones.” Mandy Patinkin could be a spoiler, given that his work was the best thing about the profoundly disappointing third season of one-time Emmy favorite “Homeland.” I don’t think Jim Carter of “Downton Abbey” or Josh Charles of “The Good Wife” will have a chance. Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series Prediction: Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad” Preference: Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife” Should have been nominated: Melissa McBride, “The Walking Dead”; Phyllis Logan, “Downton Abbey” If I ruled the world, Melissa McBride and Phyllis Logan would be on this list in place of Christina Hendricks and Maggie Smith. McBride delivered one of the most riveting and emotionally devastating performances of the year as Carol on “The Walking Dead.” Logan was similarly marvelous in a performance of such quiet strength that I’m sure voting members of ATAS didn’t even notice it. Of the nominees, Christine Baranski had consistently demanding material to work with throughout this season of “The Good Wife” and nailed it every time on every level. But if “Breaking Bad” is on a roll Monday night I fully expect Anna Gunn to take home her second Emmy. (By the way, she’s awfully good in an entirely different role -- an old-fashioned novelist caught up in a torrid affair with a cocky young blogger -- in the current play “Sex with Strangers” at New York City’s Second Stage Theater.) Joanne Froggatt of “Downton Abbey” and Lena Headey of “Game of Thrones” are also nominated.