Broadcast ratings erosion continues to tug at the big networks -- down double-digit percentages, while cable networks are up slightly -- through roughly three-quarters of the 2010-2011 TV season. Fox is again the leader among the big four broadcast networks in the key 18-49 audience -- making a rapid improvement from its disastrous start in the fall, when it was down double-digit percentages versus a year ago. This data comes from Turner Research via Nielsen, looking at the broadest measure of TV viewing -- live program plus seven days of time-shifted viewing -- from September 20, 2010 through March 20, 2011. Fox is averaging around 4.6 million adult 18-49 viewers, now down 6%; CBS is at 3.9 million, off 10%; ABC is at 3.202 also, losing 10%; and NBC is right behind ABC at 3.198, off 17%. Fox benefited from the return of "American Idol" in the first quarter of 2011. It was, in fact, the only broadcast network to see gains among 18-49 viewers in the period versus the first quarter of a year ago -- up 3% to average 5.8 million in 18-49 viewers. A year ago, NBC aired the Vancouver Winter Olympics in February, which took viewers away from all other networks. CBS was in second place in the first quarter of 2011, at 3.7 million, down 19% -- perhaps somewhat hurt from fewer gross rating points, given the lack of original episodes of its big-rated comedy "Two and a Half Men." ABC was behind CBS at 2.97 million, down 12% during the first quarter. NBC lost much without the Olympics, down 35% to 2.7 million. But even taking the Olympics out of the equation, NBC was down 11%. Overall, the picture isn't a winning one for the broadcast networks. Season-to-date, the big four networks are down 11% in 18-49 viewers (to 13.5 million) and off 16% in the first quarter 2011 (to 13.4 million). Meanwhile, ad-supported cable is up 3% to a collective 18.5 rating among 18-49 viewers during the period. A year ago -- for the season -- ad-supported cable was down 1% at a 17.7 combined 18-49 viewer rating versus 2009 for the season. The top-rated original cable series in the first quarter: MTV's "Jersey Shore," at 9.04 million viewers; followed by History's "Pawn Stars," at 7.62 million; History's "American Pickers," at 6.52 million; USA Network's "Royal Pains," with 5.47 million; BET's "The Game," at 5.31 million; and USA's "White Collar," with 4.88 million.
A surprising behind-the-scenes drama unfolded on stage late Tuesday during a much-anticipated session of the Advertising Research Foundation's (ARF) annual Re:Think conference in New York. The session, which unveiled the initial findings of Madison Avenue's first-ever attempt to standardize so-called neuromarketing measurement methods (see related story in today's edition), revealed a controversial rift with the industry's leading supplier, Nielsen-backed NeuroFocus, which apparently went rogue, declined to participate in the industry's initiative, and issued its own competing set of "standards." During the session's opening remarks, one of the ARF-led initiative's organizers, Disney Media & Advertising Lab's Duane Varan, cautioned attendees not to be confused by the "two different standards" that were "floating around," adding, "The ARF neuro standards initiative I different than NeuroFocus' neuro standards initiative." That disclosure most likely contributed to a condition brain experts might describe as "cognitive dissonance," a psychological term describing the state of unease that occurs when our brains are confronted with two conflicting ideas. MediaDailyNews was unable to obtain a copy of NeuroFocus' standards at presstime, but the ARF task force presented the findings of its first phase of work on stage Tuesday, released a summary report at the conference, and said an in-depth "white paper," a future forum, and new waves of research would follow. The dueling standards development was the second bit of drama generated by NeuroFocus during the ARF conference. On Monday, it revealed what it described as a breakthrough technology in biometric measurement, a lightweight, portable, Bluetooth enabled, brainwave measurement headset named the Mynd. The headset, which NeuroFocus founder and CEO Dr. A.K. Pradeep, described as "medical grade," utilizes a "dry electrode" technology that he said was capable of reading the "full spectrum" of electrical signals emitted by the brain.
Social media isn't just social media platforms. That message was a core theme during at least one panel at the Advertising Research Foundation 2011 Think conference in New York on Tuesday. Brad Fay, COO of the Keller Fay Group, said the firm's research, based on its TalkTrack platform -- which Keller Fay Group says is the only continuous monitoring system of all marketing-relevant conversations in America -- shows that some of the highest concentrations of social networkers are both in new and old media. "Facebook and Twitter audiences report themselves to be frequent recommenders in every category we look at," he says. "We find that people 13 to 69 who are Twitter audiences offer 100 weekly brand mentions -- they are very engaged in brands -- versus 65 for the general public," he said. But he added that traditional media also offers strong social value. "When people talk about brands even today, more of that conversation happens offline, face to face or over the phone than online," which he said accounts for only about 8% of the conversation. "The other thing is when people have conversations about brands they reference what they saw in ads, and TV ads are still the most referenced. Television does that more than any other touchpoint." Fay explained that when the firm looked at a range of media, including print, Internet, and TV, out of 113 media, the top ten in terms of the size of its users' social networks are WSJ.com, the Washington Post, Vogue, The Wall Street Journal and Newsweek. Traditional media also leads within market categories: auto category brand mentions within consumer social networks are highest among consumers of Car and Driver, Men's Health, WSJ.com, Go.com, Sports Illustrated, CNET, Rolling Stone and Fox Sports, per Fay. Unilever's Dove brand's efforts to reach male consumers involved the company using both big-event traditional media commitments, such as this year's Super Bowl, plus Web videos and social elements featuring New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees. Bill Pink, partner and head of marketing science at Millward Brown, which worked on the program, said each media has its advantages: TV was responsible for the big awareness boost the brand got among men, and its effects fell off at a slower rate than print, but online elements did not show any diminishing returns over time. On a graph of relative influence in terms of awareness building, online appears flat, but Pink points out that a deeper look at online elements of the campaign reveals large differences in the effectiveness of Dove's various Web programs. Videos showing Brees in the shower "were the most costly relative to Dove's other online programs, but had biggest effect relative to other creatives," Pink said, "and the most efficient. Even though we spent a lot behind it, we knew it was effective. So while online had a small incremental effect in total versus all media, within the online world we can see clearly what works."
As it moves into the kids' upfront market, Cartoon Network said it will debut 13 animated series and live-action comedy "Level Up" over the next year. With high-school students interacting with video game characters, "Level Up" will start with a 90-minute original film in the fall and the series will follow next year. Cartoon Network also said it is launching a new partnership with Warner Bros. and DC Entertainment, both Time Warner corporate siblings, which will include a "DC Nation" programming block on the network. Starting in 2012, the trio hope to grow it into a multiplatform superheroes brand. One of the new animated series is based on -- and carries the same name as -- DreamWorks Animation's 2010 film "How to Train Your Dragon." With a core target of 6- to-11-year-olds, the network also said it would bring back "Star Wars: The Clone Wars" for a fourth season. In May, the network will launch a new, updated look and spin on Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck with "The Looney Tunes Show." Also on deck is a new series in the "Ben 10" franchise, which has been a hit on Cartoon for five years with multiple iterations and brought a successful consumer products line.
Home Depot is launching a type of addressable advertising campaign on the Weather Channel, which could separately target cactus enthusiasts in Las Vegas and azalea aficionados in Atlanta. During breaks that could run between 30 seconds and 90 seconds, the retailer will sponsor a segment that will offer gardening and lawn care tips, customized by region. The broader "Lawn & Garden Outlook" effort also includes Weather.com and mobile elements, with targeted gardening advice placed in banner ads and based on geography and weather. At present, Home Depot could face a challenge in crafting an inspiring message in the Northeast, given the stormy outlook; the campaign debuts Thursday. The Weather Channel has broken the country into 18 regions, although it is unclear if that many different tips will be provided. Home Depot CMO Trish Mueller stated that the initiative aims to "provide [customers] with all the information and resources they need in an entertaining way" for outdoor yard projects. The chain, which is entering the busy spring season, currently sponsors a "Project of the Week" on the Weather Channel.
In a switch of their rerun modes, it was CBS' turn to rule the roost on Tuesday night over Fox. CBS' "NCIS" helped power the network to an overall night win. The 8 p.m. show pulled in a Nielsen preliminary 3.8 rating/12 share among 18-49 viewers -- the best-rated show of the night. "NCIS: Los Angeles" at 9 p.m. grabbed a 3.2/9. CBS had a clear path because Fox's "Glee" was in repeat mode, grabbing a 2.0/6. This was the exact opposite of a week ago, when the two "NCIS" shows were in repeats, and "Glee" was running an original. NBC also had a better time of it this week, with its two hours of "The Biggest Loser: Couples" earning a 2.7/8 and 3.3/9 in the 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. hours, respectively. "Loser" won the 9 p.m. period. This improved last week's 2.4 and 3.0 ratings, respectively, in the 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. hours. CBS' "The Good Wife" took top honors at 10 p.m. with a 2.1/6, helped by the fact that its closest competitor, NBC's "Parenthood," was in a repeat and earned a 1.1/3. ABC had an original "No Ordinary Family" at 8 p.m. earning an ordinary 1.5/5, followed by a two-hour special called "Best in Film: The Greatest Movies of Our Time," which took a 1.8/5. In addition to a "Glee" repeat, Fox had a rerun for "Raising Hope." "Traffic Light" at 9:30 p.m. was an original episode, getting to a 1.1/3 -- down half a rating point from a 1.6 rating the week before. CW was in repeats with "One Tree Hill" and "Hellcats" each grabbing a 0.3/1 among 18-49 audiences. For the night, CBS was at a 3.0/9; NBC took a 2.4/7; ABC earned a 1.7/5; Fox scored a 1.6/5; Univision earned a 1.6/5; and CW finished with a 0.3/1.
The new season of ABC's "Dancing with the Stars" lifted the network to an expected big Monday night. But its numbers were down 20% versus its late spring premiere outing. Still, "Dancing" was at a hefty Nielsen preliminary 5.1 rating/15 share among 18-49 viewers -- a strong result in today's TV market. This was against a 6.4 rating among 18-49 viewers in the March 2010 start. A two-hour "Dancing" at 8 p.m. gave ABC's "Castle" a big lift at 10 p.m. -- nearly a 20% gain to a season-high 3.3/9 -- and a win in the time period against CBS' "Hawaii Five-O," which took in 2.9/8. ABC took in a 4.5 rating/13 share for the night, easily winning Monday night overall. CBS was next with a 2.8/8 average on Monday. Against strong competition from ABC, CBS had a rocky night. "How I Met Your Mother" at 8 p.m. lost 15% to a 2.9/9; "Mike & Molly" gave up a bit of ground -- down over 10% at 9:30 p.m. to a 3.0/8. Good news: "Mad Love" at 8:30 p.m. was up 10%, to solid 2.3/7. Fox was right behind CBS with a 2.6/7. "House" lost hardly any ground versus "Dancing," at a 3.4/10, at 8 p.m. "The Chicago Code" at 9 p.m. also maintained the same results versus its last original episode with a 1.9/5. NBC had another difficult Monday, at 1.4/4 for the night. "Chuck" dipped to a series low at 1.5/4; "The Event" stayed the same at 1.2/3. "Harry's Law" went south over 10% to a 1.6/4. Univision was a bit better than NBC at a 1.5.4. CW, in reruns with "90210" and "Gossip Girl," averaged a 0.2/1 for both 18-49 viewers and 18-34 viewers.
In the latest sign that it plans to launch several new networks, Univision has named an executive to head sales for the new outlets. Peter Lazarus -- who has led sales at flagship Univision, TeleFutura and Galavisión networks -- becomes executive vice president, sales strategy, new networks. Lazarus will be replaced by Univision veteran Maelia Macin, who becomes executive vice president of network sales, overseeing the three networks. Univision has indicated it could launch an all-novela channel and maybe a Spanish-language sports network that could compete with ESPN Deportes. The company has said it plans to invest $20 million to $30 million for network expansion and upgrading broader sales and research functions. Univision has not offered specifics about its plans, including what kind of distribution it might pursue with new outlets, although Spanish-language pay tiers seem likely. In addition to the new launches, Lazarus will lead sales for the TuTV networks and Televisa channels in the U.S. Macin and Lazarus will report to David Lawenda, president of advertising sales and marketing. Macin joined Univision in 1992; she has been in a senior vice president role for operations that includes Univision's stations in Los Angeles, Phoenix, Tucson and San Francisco. Lazarus, who at one time led Olympic sales at NBC, came to Univision in 2008.
According to Deloitte's fifth edition "State of the Media Democracy" survey, 71% of Americans still rate watching TV on any device among their favorite media activities. In addition, 86% of Americans stated that TV advertising still has the most impact on their buying decisions. The survey indicates that the Internet, mobile and social media channels are enhancing the overall television viewer experience, driving people to watch first-run programs and live events during their initial broadcast. And, nearly three-quarters of American consumers are multitasking while watching TV. 42% are online, 29% are talking on cellphones or mobile devices, and 26% are sending instant messages or text messages. 61% of U.S. consumers now maintain a social networking site, where constant streams of updates and discussion forums have made delaying awareness of live TV outcomes a near impossibility. Phil Asmundson, Vice Chairman Deloitte LLP, points out that "... by embracing the Internet as a platform that encourages audiences to participate in discussions about their favorite programs, television is maintaining its hold on the American public... " According to this year's survey, 33% of American households now own a smartphone, up from 11% only three years ago, and 40% of U.S. consumers that do not own a smartphone are likely to purchase one in the near future. This marked rise in smartphone penetration in the U.S. market is rapidly changing consumer behavior with 56% of smartphone and laptop owners stating that they used their smartphones as a replacement for their laptop while away from home, jumping significantly from 41% in only three months. Mobile Internet use is quickly decoupling the Internet experience from the desktop for almost half of the population. This will facilitate new consumer behaviors, likely including increased mobile search, purchasing and social networking:
Jo Holz is one of the leading researchers in the industry today. In addition to her work at NBC, Children's Television Workshop, iN DEMAND, and Oxygen, she is currently SVP, Client Research Initiatives at Nielsen. In her 30+ years in media research, Jo has experienced firsthand the great shift in the television landscape, from broadcast to cable to VOD. In this interview, Jo discusses research's unique role in a corporation (discussing how research can become more influential) and the custom projects she oversees at Nielsen. She also offers some insights into media transitions and future trends. Below is an excerpt of a longer interview, captured on five short videos. The videos can be viewed here.CW: Nielsen has been around for many years. I know it has been very successful in transitioning to the next generation. How is Nielsen adapting to the new data streams and the way consumers are using media? JH: That is a great question. This is a time of great change in the media landscape, most of which Nielsen measures. People talk about changing the wheels on the bus while the bus is speeding ahead. Everything that Nielsen measures is changing rapidly. We are trying to keep up with that and capture television viewing wherever and whenever it occurs. And those possibilities are continuing to expand. You also have the trend of internet video and how we are going to measure that and combine that with our other measures of video viewing. Not to mention all the other media platforms and devices that vie for consumers' time. So that is the challenge. What is happening now at the company is that we are undergoing a major concerted effort to both capture all of that usage and behavior and then integrate it into some combined measures that make sense. So we have the TV and PC initiative where we are coming up with a single combined rating for those television shows that appear on the internet and on the tv in the same form and with the same commercial load. We are seriously studying social media and what impact that has on other media use. And there is a big push to combine the "buy" side of the company, which is the consumer data, with what we call the "watch" side, which is all the media usage data. We are also looking at Set Top Box data and have even expanded into the use of neuroscience -- trying to get beneath the surface when it comes to media use and consumer behavior. CW: Jo, where do you see the media industry in the next five years or so? JH: Things are changing so rapidly so it is hard to project out. Things have emerged on the landscape seemingly out of nowhere and suddenly have become very important. For a while everyone was excited about 3D TV, but some recent research done by Nielsen for CTAM suggests it may be a while before 3D becomes important in the marketplace. The problem is the glasses, and until that problem is dealt with I think it will be a minor sideline. I think you will have a lot of people who will be buying 3D televisions but simply because those are the best and newest televisions out there. So that is one of the things that I think will not progress all that quickly until they solve the problem with the eye glasses. On the other hand, Smart TVs or interconnected TVs, which are a very tiny part of the business right now, I think that is going to be really big. I see that as something that will really address consumer needs and wants. It is causing some consternation in the industry right now -- how it's going to affect traditional television -- and obviously there are some business issues that have to be resolved, such as content compensation and measurement of all of that viewing and attributing it correctly. But I think in the end, like the DVR, I think it will be more of a friend and a positive force in the industry rather than a negative one, once those business issues have been resolved.
If the way Europeans treat paid digital content is any harbinger of where this model is going, U.S. TV executives may need to rethink their plans. According to Forrester Research, when European consumers were asked what Internet stuff they paid for in 2010, just 4% said video content. This is down from 6% in 2009. When it come to premium TV shows, the numbers are worse -- with just 3% paying for this content in 2010, down from 5% in 2009. But future prospects appear better. When asked in 2009 what digital content they would pay for in the future, 18% said digital video -- a percentage that dropped to17% in 2010. The percentage of consumers who said they'd pay for TV show In the future remained the same for both years:14% Forrester believes demand is there -- but TV operators are reluctant to move. This doesn't bode well for TV in the U.S. Those hungry traditional media/entertainment company executives -- Chase Carey of News Corp; Jeff Bewkes of Time Warner; and Bob Iger of Walt Disney -- are pushing for TV Everywhere efforts -- that, in effect, means, have consumers pay for content for those not already paying for it through certified video retailers. Though Forrester notes an uptick in consumers looking to pay for video content, it isn't overwhelming to me. Consumers in Europe -- or in the U.S. -- might not be moved towards paid content because, at the moment, content isn't restricted. There are many places to get it "free" or advertising supported content . If there were seemingly fewer places to get your "American Idol", "CSI," "The Office," or "Modern Family" fix, consumers would then have less choice. Then you have a different story. Right now, however, TV Everywhere is a misnomer. It isn't about giving consumers the ability to see it "everywhere.".To me, it's limiting the places they can get it. That's what executives behind Hulu.com had envisioned. But this was for a free, advertising-supported platform. Now all that has changed -- U.S. television executives believe paying is the way to go. They'd better make sure.
Just in time for the mounting controversy over TV properties landing on every imaginable screen on every imaginable device, Adobe steps in to claim that it can manage the madness for the value chain. This morning the company announced an Adobe Pass product that will authenticate pay TV subscribers across screens so that only the right customers get access to the content. Adobe is positioning this as a solution to quell anxieties and rights worries among TV cable/satellite providers and the individual content makers. The many worries and conflicts of business interest of TV everywhere models surfaced last week soon after Time Warner Cable issued an iPad app that streamed programming to an additional screen. Cease and desist orders started flying from the content providers themselves, and Time Warner started pulling some brands off of the app. Adobe Pass claims to provide a secure authentication system that uses Flash and HTML5 to provide access to content on Windows, Mac, Android, iOS Blackberry and Google TV platforms. Adobe says that the system works via a single user sign-in and will not require additional downloads or other tricky authentication procedures. While the company emphasizes its own Flash technology, it is telling that it calls out HTML5 as well to signal its support of Flash-incompatible Apple iOS devices like the iPad. The company says that the Pass allows for flexible business rules so the content owners can control access. Limits can be placed on things like the number of devices in a household that can use the content on a single account. In its pitch to the TV distributors, Adobe claims that the system will heighten engagement and "prevent cord cutting." Adobe says the Pass product is available now and already in deployment. They are working with Turner, MTV Networks, Comcast and DISH. While TV providers are anxious to get with the mobile app program and ensure ubiquitous TV presence, some content brands are balking. Some TV networks see the additional screens these apps access as separate from the cable or satellite deals they already signed. The L.A. Times reports that much of the controversy is happening behind the scenes since the TV networks do not necessarily want to go public with their grievances. And it is unclear why content providers would object to having their material available in more places in the home. Under the Time Warner app model, iPad can only access the TV content via the Time Warner cable modem that is already sharing the data stream with the TV signals. From a user's perspective the iPad is pretty much behaving like just another TV screen in the house in these early apps. But consider as well that apps are not TV screens. They give the maker new latitude for added functionality, ad opportunities, cross-promotion. It is not altogether unreasonable for the networks to want to ensure they have their finger on the off button to that TV 'everywhere' doesn't go 'anywhere' without them.
As the Advertising Research Foundation opens its 75th Anniversary Annual Convention this week, it is fitting to take another look at the discipline of research and measurement in the context of today's vastly changed MediaTech environment. And guess what? It's sexy. It's hot, it's where creative thinking is required and is being applied to address the issues vexing CMOs and their agencies all over town. Really? Our frame of reference, at least for most, has been that research is necessary, but boring and non-creative. Ask a successful brand manager or creative director where the insight comes from, amd you may get a different answer. Ask a leading media planner today how to make sense of the chaotic (fragmented doesn't cut it any more) media space, and you may get a different answer there also. There is a saying that what gets measured gets done. The challenge today is not the lack of measurement, it's the lack of standardization of metrics and methodology -- and therefore the inability to integrate the too rapidly expanding channels and touchpoints. This is the great challenge, not just in research, but in marketing today. At a recent conference this challenge of integration was likened to "putting a man on the moon" by the respected head of research of a major broadcast network. But put a man on the moon we did, and we will do again. With a program this week looking at everything from biometrics and neuromarketing to social influence and ROI, ARF is another of our trade associations bringing the issues forward and providing a forum for discussion and next-generation solutions. We're so far removed from the days of check the ratings, make four phone calls and go to lunch, that it no longer has meaning, even if this was the way advertising worked for many years and many billions of dollars. Today we need to clarify our goals, and simplify the complexity of two-way, broadband, mobile, social, tablet, multiple OS, always on, data-based communications. We need to find the way forward by testing and measuring what works and how it works together. We say we 're about problem solving in our industry. and over the years we've consistently done that. Who knew that the creative resources needed to tackle our biggest issues today might best be applied in that once sleepy discipline of research?
What's the marketing problem with "Glee" for some musicians? Not everyone -- from Barbra Streisand to Dave Grohl of the Foo Fighters -- is exactly pining to be associated with the Fox show. (Streisand originally had some frank comments about the show, then apologized). In the old days, TV marketing for musicians -- or using one's "art" -- was looked down upon. It wasn't cool; it wasn't hip. But in the last decade or so the music industry has undergone a traumatic disorientation -- plummeting sales, that is. And with the radio business in somewhat of a disarray because of a plethora of new media choices, artists seemingly need marketing alternatives. Big TV shows can help sell their music, their bands, their brands. It started long before Madonna, Lady Gaga, or Britney Spears songs appeared on "Glee." It started long before famous musicians and singers started appearing on "American Idol" as special "mentors," guest talent, or otherwise. Think of all those TV show theme deals. Think of the deals The Who made with the "CSI" franchise. But it wasn't always this way. Jim Morrison was pissed when other Doors band members agreed to sell the rights to Buick to use "Light My Fire" in a commercial. He nixed the deal. This anti-commercialism could only be found in the late '60s/early '70s, when new popular music still had some rebellious roots. Seems those disgruntled musicians feel that the producers of the top-rated "Glee" expect a certain level of groveling, that modern-day musicians should be waiting in line to be a part of Fox's soaring primetime music marketing machine, all to get a bit of promotional spin that would help start careers, re-start careers, or keep one's name big in popular culture. "Glee"s Lea Michele character, Rachel Berry, has a lot of familiar stuff in her singing that would remind you of Streisand. So it has been no surprise that business reporters would question Streisand about this. Foo Fighters? Harder rock bands' oeuvre wouldn't seem to be traditional or nontraditional glee club material, But "Glee" wanted Foo Fighters' "Times Like These." Grohl said no way. Who needs whom more? Few big musical acts can write their own ticket when it comes to concerts or selling their music. Bands like Radiohead and some others can let their fans -- consumers -- name their own price when it comes to buying their music. How many musicians can afford to do that? Sometimes the problem with musicians and "Glee" -- especially for Streisand -- comes from a concern with backward association. It's a prideful thing. "My niece, my young niece saw 'Funny Girl' on DVD and said, 'How come you're singing so many songs from 'Glee'?" Streisand said recently.