A Barclays Capital report continues the trend of forecasting a stellar upfront for cable networks, but throws some cold water on the ad market at large. Volume for the cable market is projected to jump about 15% over a year ago. Cable is expected to take in total dollars on par with the Big Four broadcast networks for the first time, with both at $9.2 billion. The report, authored by analyst Anthony DiClemente, does offer favorable predictions for the Big Four broadcasters in commanding price increases. CBS would lead the pack with a 12% gain -- with ABC and Fox up 10%, followed by NBC, up 8%. Driving upfront health would be a strong scatter market, prompting buyers to lock in inventory before suffering down the road. Cable should also benefit from higher ratings that have chipped into broadcast viewership. At the same time, with the print and outdoor sectors showing mild performances, Barclays is lowering its forecast for the full U.S. ad market for 2011 to 2.9% growth from 3.9%. Also, the projection for 2012, even with an Olympics and campaign cycle, has been lowered from 6% to 5.2% -- although TV and Internet dollars should be up. Barclays wrote that local print and outdoor advertising may be increasingly losing out to the Web, notably with the emergence of Groupon and LivingSocial as options.
With TV's upfront advertising market only weeks away, Nielsen says a number of key digital trends could be factored into some decision making for marketers -- including online video usage and social media on broadcast sites. One key indicator: in January, almost half of all U.S. citizens -- 143.9 million -- viewed some video online. Overall, online video viewing came to an average of four hours and 39 minutes for the month. A subset of this is that mobile video viewing is 41% higher than it was a year ago. Good news for some of the digital broadcast media sites: While social-media usage of Facebook and Twitter keeps growing, Nielsen says in January 2011 alone, 49% of all social networking and blog site visitors also visited TV network and broadcast media sites. Twitter had the biggest overlap with broadcast media sites at 76%, while Facebook was at 50%. Looking at the market as a whole, TV advertising continues to grow -- now at $69 billion in 2010, according to Nielsen, up 8% versus the 2009. Of this, $20 billion went into prime-time TV programming, which was up 6% versus a year ago. Prime time accounts for 43% of all TV advertising. TV advertising is now 57% of all U.S. advertising's $120 billion take -- and growing faster than U.S. advertising overall, which posted a 5.4% hike in 2010 versus 2009. Time-shifting machines/services are now in 38% of all U.S. TV homes with older 35-49 viewers watching the most -- three hours and 8 minutes a week. The lightest time-shifted viewers are 12- to-17-year-olds at one hour and 31 minutes. Also, about 46% of Super Bowl viewers in February were female, the same percentage as last year, although the total rose to 51.2 million out of a total audience of 111 million. The numbers of African-American and Hispanic viewers grew to about 12.5 million and 10 million, respectively.
Although more than half the country has HD TV sets, only 17% of all TV commercials were in HD. These first-quarter numbers were slightly improved over fourth-quarter 2010, when the HD commercials distributed were at 13% of all TV commercials, according to video management/distribution company Extreme Reach. Some 53% of marketers say the problem is lack of acceptance of HD ads -- especially from local TV stations, which lag the national TV networks. Cost is another concern: 35% say production costs were a significant problem; with 41% saying distribution costs were a major reason. The survey says 47% of local broadcast TV stations accept HD commercials; but there is a 71% acceptance level at TV networks. When including local cable in the mix, the numbers dive: with only 42% of all local TV accepting HD. Just looking at the top 20 markets, 89% of TV network-affiliated stations air HD commercials, with virtually all stations in those markets capable of accepting HD ads. Some marketers say that although they produce HD commercials, they distribute in SD to save on the cost of producing in two different formats: SD (Standard Definition or HD (High Definition). The study says almost 40% of marketers have adopted HD -- the same number as in the fourth quarter. Extreme Reach said the survey was of 160 advertising and marketing executives, evaluating data from 1300 TV outlets and 124,000 SD and HD commercials released in the first quarter of this year.
BET said it would order up another season of former CW series "The Game," which it now produces and has turned into a network driver. It will also add "Reed Between the Lines" with Malcolm-Jamal Warner as it focuses on adding more original comedy. The BET unit of Viacom, which also includes network Centric, also said it would ramp up its focus on original Web productions, including a Webisode in the sci-fi genre. BET revived "The Game" to strong ratings in January and will launch a fifth season in 2012. Also back for a second season next year is the comedy "Let's Stay Together." The new "Reed Between the Lines" is scheduled for later this year. CW canceled "The Game," starring Tia Mowry as a young woman with a boyfriend in the NFL, in 2009 after three seasons. BET will also produce a four-part series to air next year -- "The Message: The History of Hip-Hop." By one measure, BET has seen prime-time ratings in the 18-to-49 demo up 10% this season through early this month -- to an average of 441,000 viewers. Ad revenues jumped 12% in 2010 to $320.4 million, according to SNL Kagan. BET ad sales chief Louis Carr stated: "Our insights, coupled with our compelling content, help our advertising partners engage with the consumers they want the most." In development is sci-fi Webisode "Odessa," about a father and daughter running from a university science program that "bestowed them with psychokinetic abilities." They must avoid them at "all costs or be hunted down and used as living weapons." Centric targets a slightly older 25-to-54 demo than BET and airs "The Cosby Show" and "In Living Color" weeknights in prime time. It also has an emphasis on music, with series such as "As Written," about the creative process of contemporary soul singers.
IntoNow plans to launch the next version of the daily deal on Wednesday. It allows people to tag TV ads and receive coupons for free products on mobile devices redeemable through local stores. Pepsi MAX becomes the first brand to participate. Consumers will have the ability to press a button in the application while watching the commercial and receive a digital coupon for a free 20-oz. beverage. The technology, SoundPrint, automatically identifies live television content and any previously aired content from the past five years. The first iteration of the application that rolled out in January allows users to tag the identified content to discover what friends watch on TV, initiating a conversation around a shared interest. This version tags the television ad and generates a barcode on the mobile device. By identifying the "unique identifier" of the device, the application will only generate one coupon per number. Today, the app runs on iOS devices such as iPad and iPhone, but the company plans to launch an application for devices running Android within two months. Apple's iOS platform, the operating system for iPhones, iPads and iPod Touch, supports users of about 37.9 million devices -- outpacing the Android platform by 59%, according to data released Tuesday from comScore. Beginning April 20, the first 50,000 IntoNow users who tag the Pepsi MAX Major League Baseball commercial will receive a coupon valid through Dec. 31, redeemable at Target and CVS. The promotion will add a convenience store within the next few weeks. The technologies required to accomplish this task have perfected the ability for point-of-sale systems to read barcodes on mobile devices. IntoNow also had to develop the technology to tag a TV commercial that identifies the consumer action of actually watching the commercial. The application can support radio commercials as well, by generating an audio fingerprint as if the technology heard and recorded the ambient sound in the room. For now, the app supports about 130 broadcast TV channels throughout the U.S., including content uploaded to video sites. Users have tagged about 2 million television shows since the application launched.
As Comcast moves to take a larger stake in the network, TV One says ad sales rose by nearly 40% in the first quarter, and it has opened a West Coast office. The network, which targets a slightly older African-American demographic than BET, also said that it signed 50 new advertisers last year. TV One saw net ad revenue increase 17% to $51.9 million in 2010, according to SNL Kagan. The network is developing new original scripted series and debuted its first, the comedy "Love That Girl," earlier this year with 15 episodes. Martin Lawrence is a co-executive producer of the show. It also airs syndicated versions of "Martin" and "Living Single" in prime time on weekdays. The Los Angeles office will be led by former Screenvision executive Seeta Zieger, who becomes the vice president of sales for the Western region. TV One Chief Revenue Officer Keith Bowen said he hopes to make inroads in generating business among tech companies in Silicon Valley and automakers based in Southern California, such as Honda and Toyota. Even Seattle is starting to become more fertile ground with Starbucks brewing up TV spots. "It's at that point we really need to have somebody in the market full-time," said Bowen, also the CRO at Radio One. Zieger will report to Lisabeth Hayes, based in TV One's Chicago office. Before Screenvision, Zieger worked at FirebrandTV and Firebrand.com. She spent some time at Current TV and worked with NBCUniversal networks USA network, Syfy and Bravo. TV One is in the process of reorganizing its ownership structure; the plan is for Radio One to own 51% and Comcast 49% by year's end. The Comcast stake will be managed by NBCUniversal, opening up some opportunities for cross-company initiatives. NBCU's "Green is Universal" program is running on TV One now. Formed in 2004, TV One is in over 52 million homes and has picked up added distribution in Chicago and Miami this year.
NBC, which is heavily marketing "The Voice," will do an unusual late-night marketing campaign for the singing contest by preempting "The Tonight Show" and "Saturday Night Live" in two separate sneak peeks. The Thursday, April 21 preview -- preempting "The Tonight Show" -- will run from 11:35 to 11:47 p.m. It features four musician coaches - Christina Aguilera, Cee Lo Green, Adam Levine and Blake Shelton -- as they join to perform Green's hit song "Crazy." Then two nights later -- Saturday, April 23 -- before the start of "Saturday Night Live," NBC will give viewers a shorter two-minute version of the song. Both "The Tonight Show" and "SNL" will air completely following the sneak peeks. The promotional/marketing move was announced by Bob Greenblatt, the new chairman of NBC Entertainment. "The Voice" premieres with a two-hour version April 26 at 9 p.m. Then following another Tuesday two-hour show on May 3, it gets a regular time slot on Tuesdays at 8 p.m., starting May 10. "The Voice," from reality TV maven Mark Burnett, is much different than Fox's "American Idol." Initial auditions are "blind." Singing coaches have their backs to the singers. Coaches then choose singers to form teams. The teams compete, and eventually one singer will be named "The Voice." That person will receive the grand prize of a recording contract and $100,000.
CIMM's Set-Top Box Data Lexicon is a compilation of terms and definitions associated with Set-Top Box data and its measurement. This Word-A-Week column highlights a term and definition from the Lexicon to help forge a common language for Set-Top Box data usage and expedite the roll-out of the data for its many industry applications. Once called Personal Video Recorders, Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) enable viewers to pre-record programs and view them at their convenience in trick play modes. DVRs are also touted as one of the major forms of commercial avoidance, which has in turn led to numerous research studies that try to understand the impact of DVR usage. The DVR adoption, currently pegged at about 35% of the television universe, has not yet reached critical mass but has certainly impacted how viewers view television and view (or not view) commercials. But the rate of adoption has been slow: Forecasters say that critical mass will be reached in 2016 when DVRs are estimated to crack the 50% penetration level. ("DVRs Approaching Critical Mass, Finally: Prove More Of A Whimper Than A Big Bang") While we wait for critical mass to be reached, and the full impact of DVRs to be felt, here are the definitions of both the DVR and PVR: DVR abbr Digital Video RecorderSee also: Personal Video Recorder CIMM DEFINITION: It is a device that enables a viewer to record video that can be viewed at a later time and with trick play functionality. Definition currently under review by CableLabs. 2. A device that allows a user to record programming to a hard drive to be watched at a later time available as a standalone device or through the Set-Top Box offered by a cable satellite or Telco service provider. (Source: Nielsen) 3. A high capacity hard drive that is embedded in a Set-Top Box , which records video programming from a television set. These DVRs are operated by personal video recording software, which enables the viewer to pause, fast forward, and manage all sorts of other functions and special applications. (Source: itvt.com/glossary) 4. A device that records video in a digital format to a disk drive or other memory medium within a device. The term includes stand-alone Set-Top Boxes, portable media players (PMP) and software for personal computers which enables video capture and playback to and from disk. (Source: IAB) PVR abbr Personal Video RecorderSee also: Digital Video Recorder CIMM DEFINITION: A consumer device which uses a hard disk drive to record television programs based on the user's preferences. Also provides pause of live television feature. Or a set of equipment that allows a user to timeshift television without removable media. (Source: CableLabs) 2. Older term for a DVR. Please refer to the CIMM Lexicon online at http://www.cimm-us.org/lexicon.htm for additional information on these and other terms.
The business of television nurturing still seems to be looking for a new formula. Take second-year NBC show "Parenthood." It just had its season finale, posting a decent 2.5 rating among 18-49ers, up from its 2.1 rating the week before. At MediaPost's Outfront event recently, Bill Carroll, VP and director of programming for Katz Television Group, noted how NBC was slowly nurturing the 10 p.m. show. The trouble is that less of this nurturing goes on today. Networks usually have a good idea whether a show will have legs -- or not. For example, CBS stopped "Chaos" after three episodes. On the other side of things, HBO recently renewed "Game of Thrones" after one outing. You might argue that CBS and HBO are on two completely different playing fields. You might even argue that "Parenthood" doesn't need to be nurtured since it meets some minimum standards for a network television show. It regularly posts 2+ ratings in the key 18-49 demo, now a regular above-water mark for a network show. While every show has its own minimum requirements, you might just look at a broad primetime 18-49 rating measure. In a recent April week, NBC earned a 1.6 rating/5 share. That would make "Parenthood" an easy choice for coming back. Throw in that it does well with upscale viewers and, like most 10 p.m. shows, gets a lot of time-shifting action. Those are two plusses. Even against other network raw measures, "Parenthood" looks good. During the same week, CBS averaged a 2.0/6 among 18-49ers; ABC 2.1/6; and Fox 2.6/8. Nurturing is important but only for shows and businesses expected to grow fast, especially those shows and networks just starting out. There are exceptions, of course. CBS' "NCIS," after being on the air for several years, witnessed a sharp, out-of-nowhere ratings spike. (That gave the network the confidence for a spinoff). What about network shows that are drifting along in the 1.1-1.5 rating range among 18-49ers? Most of them are just playing out the string -- they are not in the land of nurture. More nurturing now goes on before a show hits the air -- also called development, to some.
Lisa Joy Rosner, CMO of NetBase, is not only on the cutting edge of social media research and marketing, she is also an expert in e-commerce and CPG trends. In this interview, Lisa Joy talks about NetBase and its proprietary insight and analysis of social media for marketers, the issue of privacy in the digital arena and the mind of the new consumer. She also posits some predictions about the media landscape and what we can expect from social media in the years to come. Below is an excerpt of a longer interview, which can be viewed here.CW: They say that the landscape is in constant change. Where do you see social media going? Will Facebook last? LJR: I think it is just getting started. Look at what is happening with Groupon and how fast they are growing. And now there is FourSquare. Every day there is a new technology popping up. What has happened is that we have created a new crop of consumers which I call the Digital Natives. My kids know how to use my smartphone and they are three years old. So I think we are seeing the very first wave and human interactions are going to move more and more into the online world. The smart phones are going to get even smarter, and get "Ph.D.s" and we will be using them for everything. And so, will Facebook last? Maybe. Or it will get superseded by something bigger and better. But I think that the way humans communicate and doing it via their phone through the waves of the internet is really here to stay.CW: Television has a fairly standard way of being measured and bought. Do you think there will be standard metrics for digital? LJR: I think that is one of the things that this market is craving now: a set of best practices for measurement. That is one of the things that NetBase is working on right now. We look at three different things: What everyone looks at, which is Buzz, how much people are speaking about a subject. We also look at something we call Net Sentiment, which is the overall feeling that consumers are expressing in amalgam about a brand. We have actually been correlating that to some of the key statistics that brands use to measure customer satisfaction like the American Consumer Satisfaction Index (ACSI)metrics that are put out by the University of Michigan. We found a tremendous correlation, over 70%, between our Net Sentiment score and theirs. We also look at Passion Intensity. We assign scores to all of those and we also have visualizations, including the Brand Passion Index, where we incorporate all these three metrics so you can see how your brand rates against the competition. I do think that the industry is craving for metrics, and we are just starting to do this. I think it will be about five years before we begin to see all these brands galvanizing around this methodology.CW: In research nowadays there is a question about privacy - that consumers are concerned about infringement of privacy. Do you see that in your social media research? Are consumers really concerned about privacy?LJR: I think some are and some aren't. We talked a little bit about the Digital Natives. Digital Natives don't care at all. People in my demographic (Gen X) - some do and some don't. The Boomers, again, some do and some don't. Four years ago I was working for a company called MyBuys, the leader in personalization. I commissioned a Harris poll and back four years ago I found out that 60% of consumers are willing to trade a certain amount of privacy for personalization. So that means that when I land on a site and products are recommended to me, they are the products that I am looking for, the types of products I like to buy.... And that was before social media took off as much as it has today. I would surmise that that number has gone up because everyone's attention span has gotten shorter and they want to get personalized service even more. Who wants to sift through so much data for the item or the article or the product that you are looking for when you can just get it instantly if you sacrifice just a little bit of privacy? Now, there will always be people who will backlash and write and rant about it. The truth is that NetBase is only looking at the data that is publicly available, and we have very high ethics standards. So I think that the conversations that need to stay proprietary, stay proprietary.