Newcastle Brown Ale, imported by Heineken USA, has launched its first television campaign. The campaign includes three 30-second TV commercials with creative playing off the theme "Taste The Lighter Side of Dark." Last year, that theme was used in videos on the brand's YouTube channel supported by an online campaign spanning music, entertainment and men's lifestyle sites (the brand's core market is men 21 to 34). One of those videos, "The Favorite" -- in which parents tell their son that he's not their favorite child, but give him Newcastle as a consolation gesture -- won a nomination at last year's Cannes International Advertising Festival. The new TV spots, also from the Vitro agency, use dark humor to convey the ale's British origin and its message that it's "the dark beer that's easy to drink." Made specifically for the U.S. market, all take place in a real English pub (The Humble Dog), and all feature British actors. In each, a young man gets horrible news (a terminal diagnosis, a jail term, an imminent thrashing), but the bearers of the news (doctor, lawyer and "goon") soften their sentences slightly after sipping some Newcastle. Newcastle has been nationally available at retail since the '90s (Heineken acquired it in fall 2008), but the pub setting also underlines the brand's "foundation" in on-premise consumption, notes Colin Westcott Pitt, vice president-marketing for Newcastle Brown Ale, Dos Equis and Amstel Light. The ads will air in rotation from April 18 to June 20, and from August 29 to October 24, on CBS, ABC and cable networks including Comedy Central and TBS. The focus will be on the ale's strongest West Coast markets, but major metro regions including New York and Boston are also in the schedule, says Westcott Pitt. Newcastle is now the U.S.'s leading imported ale and ranks eleventh among all imported beers on a volume basis, according to Heineken USA.
A Barclays Capital report continues the trend of forecasting a stellar upfront for cable networks, but throws some cold water on the ad market at large. Volume for the cable market is projected to jump about 15% over a year ago. Cable is expected to take in total dollars on par with the Big Four broadcast networks for the first time, with both at $9.2 billion. The report, authored by analyst Anthony DiClemente, does offer favorable predictions for the Big Four broadcasters in commanding price increases. CBS would lead the pack with a 12% gain -- with ABC and Fox up 10%, followed by NBC, up 8%. Driving upfront health would be a strong scatter market, prompting buyers to lock in inventory before suffering down the road. Cable should also benefit from higher ratings that have chipped into broadcast viewership. At the same time, with the print and outdoor sectors showing mild performances, Barclays is lowering its forecast for the full U.S. ad market for 2011 to 2.9% growth from 3.9%. Also, the projection for 2012, even with an Olympics and campaign cycle, has been lowered from 6% to 5.2% -- although TV and Internet dollars should be up. Barclays wrote that local print and outdoor advertising may be increasingly losing out to the Web, notably with the emergence of Groupon and LivingSocial as options.
Yahoo has acquired the fledgling IntoNow, a company with a mobile platform that functions much like interactive TV. IntoNow, which went live in January, recently inked its first advertising deal with Pepsi. IntoNow has built a database that allows users to point an Apple mobile device -- an iPhone, iTouch or iPad -- at a TV screen and use the app to relay information about what they are watching to a Facebook page or Twitter feed. The system recognizes five years' worth of episodes across 130 networks. The system -- based on audio signals -- also can be set up to recognize particular ads, which is powering the Pepsi deal. There, users that point when watching a particular Major League Baseball-themed spot can have a barcode beamed back to their devices. They can take it to a retailer and get a free Pepsi Max bottle. That is similar to the request-for-information or RFI ads that are sparking interactive TV ad campaigns. There, viewers can use a remote control during a particular spot to click-through and order up a sample product or coupon to be sent to them. Terms of the Yahoo acquisition were not disclosed. IntoNow plans a three-pronged revenue model: generating dollars from the commercial tagging that Pepsi is using; placing advertising in the app that users need to operate it; and licensing its technology. The IntoNow identification technology also works with respect to online video, which is likely to be helpful to Yahoo. Yahoo Senior Vice President Bill Shaughnessy stated that technology offers opportunities "especially in regards to our video content, search, mobile and connected TV experiences."
With TV's upfront advertising market only weeks away, Nielsen says a number of key digital trends could be factored into some decision making for marketers -- including online video usage and social media on broadcast sites. One key indicator: in January, almost half of all U.S. citizens -- 143.9 million -- viewed some video online. Overall, online video viewing came to an average of four hours and 39 minutes for the month. A subset of this is that mobile video viewing is 41% higher than it was a year ago. Good news for some of the digital broadcast media sites: While social-media usage of Facebook and Twitter keeps growing, Nielsen says in January 2011 alone, 49% of all social networking and blog site visitors also visited TV network and broadcast media sites. Twitter had the biggest overlap with broadcast media sites at 76%, while Facebook was at 50%. Looking at the market as a whole, TV advertising continues to grow -- now at $69 billion in 2010, according to Nielsen, up 8% versus the 2009. Of this, $20 billion went into prime-time TV programming, which was up 6% versus a year ago. Prime time accounts for 43% of all TV advertising. TV advertising is now 57% of all U.S. advertising's $120 billion take -- and growing faster than U.S. advertising overall, which posted a 5.4% hike in 2010 versus 2009. Time-shifting machines/services are now in 38% of all U.S. TV homes with older 35-49 viewers watching the most -- three hours and 8 minutes a week. The lightest time-shifted viewers are 12- to-17-year-olds at one hour and 31 minutes. Also, about 46% of Super Bowl viewers in February were female, the same percentage as last year, although the total rose to 51.2 million out of a total audience of 111 million. The numbers of African-American and Hispanic viewers grew to about 12.5 million and 10 million, respectively.
For broadcast networks, it's a down rating world on Thursday -- a continuing trend for the week. But talk to TNT about NBA playoffs and you'll get a happier story. Fox won with "American Idol," with a Nielsen 5.7 rating/18 share among 18-49 viewers. But this was down versus a 6.2 rating number the week before. Following "Idol" on Fox, "Bones" -- the third-best-rated show of the night -- earned a lower 3.2 rating/9 share, off its 3.7 number of the week before. More lowering news: NBC's "The Office," featuring the second episode of the highly marketed Will Ferrell joining the cast for an indeterminate amount of time, took in a 3.3/9 -- down six-tenths of a rating point from its big 3.9 rating the week before. Four of the five English-language broadcasting networks were down week-to-week on Thursday heading into the final week's push of the season. Among 18-49 viewers, on Thursday night Fox averaged a 4.5/13 (down from a 4.9 rating); NBC was at a 2.1/6, one-tenth lower from a 2.2; CBS was up to a 1.8/5 from a 1.6; ABC was lower at a 1.1/3 from a 1.3 rating; and the CW was at a 0.9/3 from a 1.0 rating. Univision pulled in with the same 1.3/4 versus the previous week. Much of the same ratings trend has been going on with broadcasters for most of the week. For example, on Wednesday night, all the major networks were down week-to-week. Still, TNT has been the cable network seeing big gains from the NBA early-round playoffs. TNT's nine telecasts, since starting last weekend, have garnered a 36% gain so far to an average 4.37 million viewers -- up from a 3.21 million average in the 2010 pro hoops playoffs. Looking at specific demos, there has been a 39% improvement to 1.51 million viewers 18-34; a 41% hike to 2.55 million for 18-49 viewers; and 37% more to 2.24 million for those 25-54. Male viewers -- a key audience for NBA marketers -- are also higher: 37% to 1.08 million viewers 18-34; 41% to 1.84 million 18-49 male viewers; and 38% to 1.59 million 25-54 men.
Although more than half the country has HD TV sets, only 17% of all TV commercials were in HD. These first-quarter numbers were slightly improved over fourth-quarter 2010, when the HD commercials distributed were at 13% of all TV commercials, according to video management/distribution company Extreme Reach. Some 53% of marketers say the problem is lack of acceptance of HD ads -- especially from local TV stations, which lag the national TV networks. Cost is another concern: 35% say production costs were a significant problem; with 41% saying distribution costs were a major reason. The survey says 47% of local broadcast TV stations accept HD commercials; but there is a 71% acceptance level at TV networks. When including local cable in the mix, the numbers dive: with only 42% of all local TV accepting HD. Just looking at the top 20 markets, 89% of TV network-affiliated stations air HD commercials, with virtually all stations in those markets capable of accepting HD ads. Some marketers say that although they produce HD commercials, they distribute in SD to save on the cost of producing in two different formats: SD (Standard Definition or HD (High Definition). The study says almost 40% of marketers have adopted HD -- the same number as in the fourth quarter. Extreme Reach said the survey was of 160 advertising and marketing executives, evaluating data from 1300 TV outlets and 124,000 SD and HD commercials released in the first quarter of this year.
TLC is using the Royal Wedding as its sort of "Shark Week," stuffing its prime-time schedule with all aspects of the nuptials. The network will simulcast on a Times Square billboard as it airs the wedding live Friday. As part of its stunt, the network will carry the wedding on a Clear Channel digital billboard as well as its pre-show, beginning on the Times Square screen as early as 4:30 a.m. It is also using the outdoor-cast as part of a broader stunt that involves a fashion show linked with its "Say Yes to the Dress" show. It is holding the on-site marriage of three couples, and offering a performance by pop singer Colbie Caillat. The Clear Channel billboard is visible from the new red steps that serve as a resting place behind TKTS in the heart of Times Square. Onlookers, however, may be able to choose from other screens in the Square to watch the ceremony as coverage from ABC and Fox News -- maybe even MSNBC --could also be available. The Weather Channel recently launched a new series with a live simulcast on a Times Square billboard. This week, TLC is airing wedding programming that includes an exploration of how Prince William and his bride-to-be reached this point, a look at William's brother Harry, and a recounting of what it was like to be a bridesmaid for Princess Diana years ago. While the Royal Wedding may be a brand, TLC faces competition from numerous networks in pre-event coverage and could suffer from any viewer fatigue.
DirecTV started up its controversial "premium VOD" film service on April 21 with a marketing campaign for Sony Pictures Entertainment's "Just Go With It." The plan, with the backing of four studios -- Sony, Warner, Fox and Universal -- is to release movies 60 days after their theatrical debut. It would cost consumers $29.99, significantly more than the current price tag for DVD rentals or video on demand, which start up 120 days after theatrical release, with a price tag of around $4. Under its "Home Premiere" service, the new campaign theme line: "From the Big Screen to Your Screen. First." Messaging is airing on DirecTV's site. The new plan has received a massive outcry from the National Association of Theater Owners, given that it would overlap the distribution of movies to theaters where typical distribution deals are for 120 days. Some theater owners have threatened to potentially cut back on in-theater trailers from some films and studios. Analysts feel the revolutionary move could dramatically upset studio-theater owner business relations. Movie studios have been desperate to reverse the double-digit-percentage revenue slide of the last few years over the DVD/Home Video business. In addition, the DVD sales business has been hurt by the recession and by services like Netflix and Redbox.
Editor's note: As a number of comments from readers have pointed out, this edition of "On Media" incorrectly states that total U.S. TV advertising was $28.6 billion in 2010. While industry estimates vary, the most recent figures from Publicis' ZenithOptimedia Group estimated that 2010 TV ad spending was $56.5 billion. A correction has been published to make readers aware of this error.Advertising-dependent television may have dodged one bullet this year only to be crippled later by an intensifying barrage of economic and tech threats that will alter its fragile status quo. Just this week, the Internet Advertising Bureau confirmed that $26.4 billion in Internet media spending in 2010 handily beat $22.8 billion in newspapers. It's just a matter of time before it matches TV's dominant $28.6 billion in revenues last year, $16 billion of which is from broadcast and the remainder from cable. After all, the online ad market grew 15% during the heart of the recession from 2009 to 2010. Why wouldn't it pick up more steam with increased consumer and enterprise digital adoption? Nascent mobile advertising has nowhere to go but up. A closer look at the IAB's new report shows that Internet ad revenues are driven by retail, telecom, financial services and autos, which have been TV advertising mainstays. They are clearly attracted to the more justifiable performance metrics and measurable ROI. Not too many years from now, many marketers will be wondering how they ever were suckered into slapping their money into the TV networks' critical mass in hopes that something sticks. With tech and cash-rich interactive giants like Apple, Amazon, Time Warner and Netflix battling over streaming video supremacy, the traditional TV-invested companies stand little chance of controlling their advertising destiny over time. Before the end of the decade, a significant portion of television's ad dollars will either be diffused across or outstripped by competing digital media outlets. This is not to say that broadcast and cable television will not continue to play an important role in providing marketers with a mass audience -- particularly for major sporting, entertainment and other live events. Until now, traditional media has understandably hung onto what works rather than jumping more fully into a new interactive media world plagued by its own uncertainties. Still, even Wall Street is beginning to wonder aloud about reaching a pivot point, and whether the television networks have been the beneficiaries of an ad recovery that appears to be more substantive in theory than reality. The industry's story this year and beyond is generally one of no growth or slow growth, couched by economic and new tech unknowns. With the economic outlook for consumer spending dampened -- if not decimated -- by the stubbornly grim housing and job markets and impotent politics, media analysts say they see no growth catalysts until next year's presidential elections. It is a cyclical artificial boost to television advertising -- and it will be shared with digital and social media. Spiking fuel costs, Japan's disruption to automakers and looming inflationary pressures are more than "hiccups" clipping any sustained consumer recovery. A myriad of indicators this week underscored a growing despondency. The New York Times/CBS poll Thursday indicated a new two-year low for American pessimism about our economic outlook just days after Standard & Poor's revised its outlook on the nation's Triple AAA rating to negative from stable. USA Inc., a provocative examination of the country's financials using public corporate criteria, was widely published by Internet guru Mary Meeker and is available for free online. It presents a devastating portrait of an America whose unchecked debt and obligations a decade from now will leave it without sufficient funds to support education, defense, infrastructure and R&D -- which accounts for one-third of USA Inc. spending today, down from 69% 40 years ago. That can't be good for anyone or any business. A "healthy" recovering ad market is likely to "tread water" going forward on new and continuing economic fears, according to Nomura analyst Michael Nathanson. Some companies may realize single-digit increases in ad revenues this year; others are flattening their estimates or conceding they will lose at least 5% on the local front. While traditional TV advertising has bounced off its near 70-year bottom, it will never again be meteoric. As long as the country is mired in paralytic bad news and the absence of genuine growth, companies whose fortunes are tied to consumer spending face unsteady or even no financial progress. Even media analysts who are bullish about the upfront concede there are too many critical factors in play to identify the new status quo for ad-dependent television later this decade. Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that supplementary revenue streams may only prove to be short-term solutions. The retrans and licensing fees that cable, satellite and telecom operators are now paying to carry TV network and local TV station signals will last only as long as distributors can justify or afford it. The proliferation of over-the-top streaming video options and consumer reliance on mobile connectivity will prompt changes in the way they all do business. The precipitous decline in home video demonstrates how quickly consumer behavior can bring down a sector. While film studios are trying to claw back some of their lost exhibition window dollars by offering earlier VOD, they face threats from new digital options. Only the most compelling niche television sectors (such as Disney's ESPN and Viacom's kids and teen networks) will continue to be wildly successful in a long-tail media universe. While CBS has thrived on heavy cost cuts with an aggressive pursuit of fees, it has no horse in the connected media race. CBS' recent deal with Netflix is an easy short-term bet on streaming video of archived programs it cannot sell into a declining syndication marketplace. Broadcast TV networks, in particular, continue to bleed ratings and audience in their traditional venue; a widening share of their advertising will be siphoned by online and mobile. Like newspapers, many local TV stations are out-maneuvered by savvy, inexpensive online, social and hyper-local options -- from Groupon to Google to Facebook. Their costly physical plant and legacy operations can't compete. For some TV station owners -- perhaps eventually including Disney's ABC and Comcast's NBC -- exiting the business may be the only answer amid what is sure to be rampant streamlining and market consolidation. As the TV networks peddle their upfront bill of goods, think about the broader context of economic and tech change. It brings new meaning to the words "new season."
Influencing friends and business partners -- that's what it comes down to in modern TV dealing. Fox's regional sports cable TV operation loaned some $30 million to Frank McCourt so his Los Angeles Dodgers could make payroll. But if not Fox, it would have been Time Warner Cable. That's one way to influence things. If McCourt didn't have his personal finances tied up in some messy divorce proceedings, things would have gone differently. This was part of the reason Major League Baseball thought ill of the entire Dodger situation -- and looks to take over the team. But was it because of Fox gaining some undue influence over a key major league baseball team? Seems that had a lot to do with it. Of course, TV media companies have had a long history of ownership of professional sports teams: The Tribune Company with the Chicago Cubs, and TBS with both the Atlanta Braves and Atlanta Hawks. Increasingly TV networks are a major piece of the financial puzzle for sports teams. Perhaps more so now that TV cable operators like Fox Sports and Time Warner Cable are more desperate to keep sports franchises in their respective corrals. Surprisingly, Time Warner Cable stole the Los Angeles Lakers from Fox to start up its own regional TV service with a big 20-year deal. So Fox rushed to renew with the Dodgers with it own 20-year deal. And it wasn't just Time Warner Cable. Fox took an opportunity to stop the Dodgers from creating their own sports channel from day one. Looking at the TV environment, we know what works and what's at stake. A potential cancellation or curtailment of the NFL season will throw its TV network partner into a tizzy -- much more than recent sports league season cancellations, the NHL lockout in the 2004-2005 season and Major League Baseball's 1994-1995 strike. So what's left are teams working more closely with their TV distribution entities -- willing to do more than they ever have. Major League Baseball might be wondering if this is fair play on Fox's part -- as the commissioner hasn't approved the Fox/Dodgers distribution deal as yet. As far I can tell, there isn't a problem. The business of divorce and baseball continues to get messier and complicated. Major League Baseball should recognize the new TV world and its media partners' needs. After all, media companies like Tribune and Turner have had this kind of influence -- and then some.
What would be the psychological effects of cable's upfront ad revenues matching -- or exceeding -- the broadcast networks, as more than a few analysts predict? Short term? A small cheer. Long term? Cable still has a long way to go in other areas. For everything but a few original dramas, cable's average CPM is at least 15% lower than the broadcast networks -- and there's little chance of cable catching up in that area. It's estimated that broadcast networks in this upfront are tacking on CPMs ranging from 8% extra (NBC on the low end) to 14%. At best, cable networks will get to the high end of that range. But they would need much more to approach actual broadcast CPMs, which have been around $31 or $32 for key 18-49 viewers. For many, CPMs still represent a key sticking point. Cable proponents say TV viewers are TV viewers. (Digital video sellers would have a different side of the argument). Still, concerning cable, how can people expect marketers to suddenly pay really huge increases to cable to put them on par with the broadcasters? That has always been the rub. Cable may have a psychological advantage if, as analysts say, it ends up a little ahead of broadcast this year. Of course, you are comparing apples and oranges. Cable represents some 70-odd ad supported cable networks, versus five or six broadcast networks. Not only that, but on a network by network basis, total TV network advertising results speak clearer about what is going on. According to Kantar Media, for the full year 2010, CBS held the top spot at $6.48 billion; ABC was next, $5.06 billion; NBC, $4.82 billion; Fox, $4.49 billion; and Univision, $1.87 billion. Well behind is the biggest cable network, ESPN, at $1.74 billion; TNT, comes next, $1.20 billion; USA Network, $1.1 billion; TBS, $890 million; and MTV, $820 million. Cable may still be looking up. But it has some way to go when it comes to playing on an even advertising field with broadcast networks.
CIMM's Set-Top Box Data Lexicon is a compilation of terms and definitions associated with Set-Top Box data and its measurement. This Word-A-Week column highlights a term and definition from the Lexicon to help forge a common language for Set-Top Box data usage and expedite the roll-out of the data for its many industry applications. Once called Personal Video Recorders, Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) enable viewers to pre-record programs and view them at their convenience in trick play modes. DVRs are also touted as one of the major forms of commercial avoidance, which has in turn led to numerous research studies that try to understand the impact of DVR usage. The DVR adoption, currently pegged at about 35% of the television universe, has not yet reached critical mass but has certainly impacted how viewers view television and view (or not view) commercials. But the rate of adoption has been slow: Forecasters say that critical mass will be reached in 2016 when DVRs are estimated to crack the 50% penetration level. ("DVRs Approaching Critical Mass, Finally: Prove More Of A Whimper Than A Big Bang") While we wait for critical mass to be reached, and the full impact of DVRs to be felt, here are the definitions of both the DVR and PVR: DVR abbr Digital Video RecorderSee also: Personal Video Recorder CIMM DEFINITION: It is a device that enables a viewer to record video that can be viewed at a later time and with trick play functionality. Definition currently under review by CableLabs. 2. A device that allows a user to record programming to a hard drive to be watched at a later time available as a standalone device or through the Set-Top Box offered by a cable satellite or Telco service provider. (Source: Nielsen) 3. A high capacity hard drive that is embedded in a Set-Top Box , which records video programming from a television set. These DVRs are operated by personal video recording software, which enables the viewer to pause, fast forward, and manage all sorts of other functions and special applications. (Source: itvt.com/glossary) 4. A device that records video in a digital format to a disk drive or other memory medium within a device. The term includes stand-alone Set-Top Boxes, portable media players (PMP) and software for personal computers which enables video capture and playback to and from disk. (Source: IAB) PVR abbr Personal Video RecorderSee also: Digital Video Recorder CIMM DEFINITION: A consumer device which uses a hard disk drive to record television programs based on the user's preferences. Also provides pause of live television feature. Or a set of equipment that allows a user to timeshift television without removable media. (Source: CableLabs) 2. Older term for a DVR. Please refer to the CIMM Lexicon online at http://www.cimm-us.org/lexicon.htm for additional information on these and other terms.
The business of television nurturing still seems to be looking for a new formula. Take second-year NBC show "Parenthood." It just had its season finale, posting a decent 2.5 rating among 18-49ers, up from its 2.1 rating the week before. At MediaPost's Outfront event recently, Bill Carroll, VP and director of programming for Katz Television Group, noted how NBC was slowly nurturing the 10 p.m. show. The trouble is that less of this nurturing goes on today. Networks usually have a good idea whether a show will have legs -- or not. For example, CBS stopped "Chaos" after three episodes. On the other side of things, HBO recently renewed "Game of Thrones" after one outing. You might argue that CBS and HBO are on two completely different playing fields. You might even argue that "Parenthood" doesn't need to be nurtured since it meets some minimum standards for a network television show. It regularly posts 2+ ratings in the key 18-49 demo, now a regular above-water mark for a network show. While every show has its own minimum requirements, you might just look at a broad primetime 18-49 rating measure. In a recent April week, NBC earned a 1.6 rating/5 share. That would make "Parenthood" an easy choice for coming back. Throw in that it does well with upscale viewers and, like most 10 p.m. shows, gets a lot of time-shifting action. Those are two plusses. Even against other network raw measures, "Parenthood" looks good. During the same week, CBS averaged a 2.0/6 among 18-49ers; ABC 2.1/6; and Fox 2.6/8. Nurturing is important but only for shows and businesses expected to grow fast, especially those shows and networks just starting out. There are exceptions, of course. CBS' "NCIS," after being on the air for several years, witnessed a sharp, out-of-nowhere ratings spike. (That gave the network the confidence for a spinoff). What about network shows that are drifting along in the 1.1-1.5 rating range among 18-49ers? Most of them are just playing out the string -- they are not in the land of nurture. More nurturing now goes on before a show hits the air -- also called development, to some.