• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, March 5, 2009

Led by Walmart, which posted a strapping 5% sales jump in February, many of the largest retail chains did better than many predicted.

Overall, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) says U.S. chain store sales fell about 0.1% in February. "There was a slightly broader industry improvement for the month," it says in its analysis. "Moreover, the last four months show an increasingly less negative performance for the industry--which is an encouraging sign and one that ultimately will form a foundation for stronger sales performance later in the year."

And TNS Retail Forward, a consulting company based in Columbus, Ohio, says its index is actually registering a slight gain--up 0.4% among the 35 retailers or so reporting monthly results. "Shoppers are giving some encouraging signs even as they remain focused on limiting their spending," it says. "In some cases, the belt-tightening several months ago amid broad uncertainty has proved too severe as time or need has unfolded."

Wal-Mart Stores was the clear winner, with its comparable-store sales at Walmart jumping 5%, excluding fuel sales, beating its own expectation; grocery, health and wellness, and entertainment were its strongest categories. "We believe falling gas prices significantly boosted household disposable income in February and therefore allowed for both more trips and more spending towards discretionary categories," the Bentonville, Ark.-based company says in its release.

Rival Target says its sales declined 4.1%, in line with its forecasts.

But there were still plenty of truly dismal reports, including Abercrombie & Fitch, down 30%; Saks, falling 26%; and Neiman Marcus, with a 20.9% drop. In addition to Walmart, big gainers include teen retailers Buckle, up 21%; Aeropostale, up 11%; and Hot Topic, up 10.8%, as well as Duckwall-Alco Stores, up 9.4%; and Baker's Footwear, up 12.8%.

In mid-range department stores, sales were down, but within expectations: Macy's sales dropped 8.5%, for example, while Kohl's slid 1.6% and JC Penney's slid 8.8%.

There is continuing evidence that the decline in same-store sales is bottoming out. Retail Forward says its ongoing research has seen a significant decline in the percentage of shoppers who say they plan to spend less in the coming month compared with last year: Only 45% of consumers are vowing to rein in spending, compared to 55% in each of the last four months.

But Retail Forward reports that consumers say declining home prices and investments are still hampering their spending, and the percentage of shoppers who believe they are "worse off" than last year because of investments (55%) and home values (40%) each increased by three percentage points in February. The number of those who feel less secure about their jobs and income levels also increased a bit.

Forecasters are calling for more of the same this month, with ICSC predicting that March comparable-store sales will "be down 1% to flat on a year-over-year basis."