Most TV viewers see less and less of a distinction between TV giants such as NBC, ABC and CBS and cable cousins such as USA, TNT and MTV. "Kids and teenagers and even adults under 35 don't really
differentiate between cable and broadcast. It's just TV," says Jim Spiropolous, research director at MediaVest. He predicts that all but the most premium broadcast shows will end up with ratings on
par with cable in just a few years.
Indeed, the number of viewers who watched broadcast network programs within seven days after airing fell in every significant demo category between
2007-2008 and 2008-2009, per RPA. Meanwhile, viewership across 76 cable outlets increased in all of those categories. Michael Nathanson, Bernstein analyst, estimates that if the Big Four broadcast
networks continue to lose 5% to 6% in viewers each year and big cable outlets such as TNT, TBS, USA, ESPN and Spike can grow at that same rate, broadcast would have just one-and-a-half times the reach
of cable by the 2012-2013 season.
To complicate broadcast's position further, ad buyers are increasingly trying to link their clients to specific programs and pieces of content--no matter
where they air, broadcast or cable.
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