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Broadcast, Cable Seem Same To Viewers

Most TV viewers see less and less of a distinction between TV giants such as NBC, ABC and CBS and cable cousins such as USA, TNT and MTV. "Kids and teenagers and even adults under 35 don't really differentiate between cable and broadcast. It's just TV," says Jim Spiropolous, research director at MediaVest. He predicts that all but the most premium broadcast shows will end up with ratings on par with cable in just a few years.

Indeed, the number of viewers who watched broadcast network programs within seven days after airing fell in every significant demo category between 2007-2008 and 2008-2009, per RPA. Meanwhile, viewership across 76 cable outlets increased in all of those categories. Michael Nathanson, Bernstein analyst, estimates that if the Big Four broadcast networks continue to lose 5% to 6% in viewers each year and big cable outlets such as TNT, TBS, USA, ESPN and Spike can grow at that same rate, broadcast would have just one-and-a-half times the reach of cable by the 2012-2013 season.

To complicate broadcast's position further, ad buyers are increasingly trying to link their clients to specific programs and pieces of content--no matter where they air, broadcast or cable.

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