food

Health, Convenience Still Dominate Food Trends

fruits/veggies

Health and convenience will become even more important influences on Americans' food consumption patterns over the next 10 years, according to a new report from The NPD Group, "A Look into the Future of Eating."

The report covers more than 160 food-related behaviors and includes predictions about trends in food and beverage categories, meals and food preparation methods. The projections are based on NPD's ongoing tracking of consumer eating patterns (with emphasis on the past 7 to 12 years of its nearly 30 years of data), combined with advanced analysis of generational influences and population trends.

Organic foods will show the most significant growth in the decade ahead, with instances of Americans eating these foods jumping by 41%, forecasts NPD. Population aging is a major driver. "People eat more fruits and vegetables as they age, and fruits and vegetables dominate the organic sector," sums up Ann Hanson, NPD director of product development and author of the report.

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Foods bearing light, diet and low-calorie on their labels will also continue to ride the "better for you" wave. NPD expects instances of consumption of these products to increase by 18%.

Many of the growth areas identified reflect the growing demand for convenience and changes in eating patterns driven by busy, mobile lifestyles -- often with an element of health also tied in.

The report projects 20% growth in restaurant meals eaten at home (encompassing everything from fast food to salads), and 16% growth in "easy meals" such as fruit, yogurt, snack bars and snacks eaten as meals.

Given the trends to smaller but more frequent meals (mini meals) and snacks-as-meals, it's not surprising that consumption of salty/savory snack foods, and appetizers eaten as in-home main meals, are also predicted to grow by 16%.

Leftovers may not be glamorous, but consumption of these is expected to increase by 15%. Leftovers are not only economical, but "mean one less meal to have to prepare," points out Hanson.

NPD also predicts 14% growth in eating fresh foods as "end dishes" - meaning eating proteins, vegetables and other core foods as simple, separate entities, rather than incorporating them into recipes or multi-ingredient dishes.

This is another behavior that increases with age and also reflects the convenience mandate. A sub trend identified, for example, is growing use of simply cooked protein portions, such as a pork chop or steak, as part of meals. "It's easier to cook a chicken breast than it is to make chicken enchiladas," says Hanson.

Yet, surprisingly, the per-capita consumption growth rate of one of America's most venerated convenience meals -- the sandwich -- has been declining for about a decade. The growth rate seems to have leveled out now, but it will not keep up with the population's growth, reports Hanson. Apparently, even sandwiches and other "quick-assembly" foods are considered inconvenient by many consumers, given the growing number of even easier (and perhaps lower-cal and/or healthier) choices such as yogurt and quick-prep frozen meals.

Other categories that will see declines in consumption include conventionally cooked/prepared breakfast foods such as eggs, bacon and homemade or mix pancakes. However, cold cereal and heat-and-eat breakfast options are expected to perform well, according to Hanson.

NPD frequently produces tailored food trend reports for individual clients, but this marks the first time it has produced a comprehensive food trends report.

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