• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, August 13, 2009

Okay, most U.S. consumers aren't ready to do the "happy dance" just yet. But a new study shows a decided shift in recession depression, with more consumers believing that the worst is over, both for the economy as a whole and their own personal finances.

While almost half of Americans surveyed think the economy is going downhill and will get worse before it gets better, reports Synovate, that's a significant decline from 69% of people who agreed with that statement back in November. And more people think the worst is behind us: Some 29% of Americans believe things are as bad as they're going to get, up from 14% in November 2008.

"That's a pretty major shift," says Bob Michaels, SVP, head of U.S. consumer business. "There's a growing sense among consumers that we've seen bottom."

He says there's also a growing sense of hope evident in the way people size up their own finances: Only about a quarter of Americans are worried that their situation will worsen in the next 12 months, down from 30% in November, while 32% are optimistic that their fortunes will improve in the year ahead, up from 29% in November. And 44% believe their situation will stay the same, up from 41% in November. That's significant, he says, since so many have taken some kind of hit to their income. In the current survey, 37% report earning less, versus 25% in November.

But while a much bigger group says they are still reining in spending, "we are seeing a little shift in particular categories in which people are trading down," he says. With 79% spending less on luxuries, and 81% doing less impulse buying, certain categories seem less vulnerable to losing share to private labels.

Alcoholic beverages and hot drinks seem less targeted for trading down, he says, while bottled water and soft drinks are still on the budgetary chopping block. Branded laundry products also seem stronger. "If I'm a marketer, I'm still worried about 40% of people looking to switch to a cheaper brand," he says, "but it's not as scary as the 48% in the November survey. It's sort of like, well, 'At least you're not hitting me with a hammer now.'"

What's revealing, he says, "is that as consumers adjust to the economic reality, they are making choices among products and shifting a little bit about where they are willing to make tradeoffs. They are not as likely to trade off on laundry, staple food items and healthcare products. But they are a little more likely to do so on soft drinks and bottled water."

Still, Americans are decidedly glummer than the rest of the globe. In addition to the 500 U.S. consumers in the survey, Synovate polled nearly 17,000 around the world, and 17% of respondents in Cyprus, 13% in both Brazil and India and 12% in Denmark actually believe their economies are strong; only 1% of Americans think the U.S. economy is strong.