• October 6, 2009

A new study by R.L. Polk & Co. says the new-vehicle market is improving. The firm predicts new light vehicle sales in 2010 will be up 9.6% over 2009 to 11.2 million units, with third-quarter 2010 sales estimated to be the strongest, at an anticipated 28%.

The firm bases predictions on the bottoming out of the housing market, a reversal in the decline of home prices, expansion in manufacturing, and improved consumer sentiment indicate positive signs that the economic recovery is well underway.

Polk forecasts that the CARS program will generate a positive net impact of 350,400 additional vehicles sold in 2009. And of the 690,000 new buyers during the program's time frame, Polk says 336,000 would have bought in 2009 regardless of the incentive program.

"We are confident the worst is behind us," said Dave Goebel, North American forecast consultant for Polk, in a statement. "We also believe the Cash for Clunkers program will have little to no impact on 2010 sales, because the overall economic outlook has improved since earlier this year and this serves automakers well as they bring new models into their showrooms."--Karl Greenberg