• by Mark Walsh  @markfwal, October 12, 2009

The worldwide economic downturn isn't slowing down mobile media growth, according to a new forecast. The Mobile Entertainment Forum's latest Business Confidence Index, compiled by KPMG, projects average mobile media revenue will grow 33% in 2009 -- a 6% increase over the rate predicted at the beginning of the year.

"A 6% increase in the predicted growth of the market since the beginning of the year shows that, despite a general downturn and a degree of belt-tightening in some areas, any remaining uncertainty is offset by a sense of optimism within the industry looking forward," said Andrew Bud, global chair of the mobile industry trade group.

Paid content will continue to play a big part in driving sales, with MEF members predicting 63% of their revenue over the next quarter will come from both subscription and one-time purchases. Games, video, music, social networking and infotainment remain the most popular categories.

The explosion of mobile applications is also starting to pay off as apps alone are expected to account for 14% of all mobile media sales. It's likely Apple's App Store, with more than 2 billion downloads to date, will generate the vast majority of app sales this year. Even so, most iPhone apps are still offered free.

The London-based MEF pointed out that emerging markets worldwide are growing faster than more mature ones. "Our members in the established markets such as Western Europe and North America are forecasting relatively stable revenues but see emerging markets such as Central & Latin America, as well as India, driving proportionately larger revenue increases for the coming year," said Rimma Perelmuter, executive director at MEF.

The Business Confidence Index was launched in January 2009 to analyze revenue and business trends in the mobile entertainment industry. MEF members include mobile ad network AdMob, Microsoft, Motorola, Sony Music, Nokia, National Geographic and Vodafone.