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Toy Fair Buyers Take Their Best Shots At Predicting Consumers

At Day Two of the American International Toy Fair in New York, Andrea Chang got a chance to check out some of the stuff that may sit under Christmas trees 10 months from now, from Fisher-Price's iPod Touch-like electronic toy for preschoolers called the iXL to a new version of Monopoly that has a circular board and fake credit cards.

Buyers are struggling to find the right inventory for what promises to be another nail-biting holiday season. "You're always guessing, and you're guessing eight months out," says Eddie Moore, a site editor and buyer for Amazon. "You're looking for 'that,' and you don't know what 'that' is ..."

Analysts expect a slight uptick in spending on toys this year. U.S. retail sales of toys totaled $21.47 billion in 2009, a slight decline from $21.65 billion in 2008, according to NPD Group. "The trend in 2010 is going to be on value, but I think we're going to see a little more willingness to spend than we did last year," says Sean McGowan, a toy analyst at Needham & Co.

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