• by Dave Morgan , Featured Contributor, May 6, 2010

A lot of folks in the media business are feeling pretty good right now. The TV upfronts are almost upon us, and both sellers and buyers feel positive about the robustness of the TV ad marketplace after a dismal 2009. Web video companies are also feeling pretty good, as report after report and pundit after pundit call for bigger consumption numbers for online video in the future. Mobile marketing companies likewise feel just fine, as smartphone penetration continues to explode and everyone seems certain that mobile advertising will be big -- someday. Social media companies are feeling great, as Facebook continues to grow into a juggernaut, and the market is on pins and needles, wondering when Facebook and its brethren like Zynga and Twitter will finally test the public stock markets and bring in billions of dollars.

We've seen this movie before, and it didn't end well for many. Over the past 15 years, there's been a few booms and busts in both the digital and legacy media sectors. I personally believe that 2010 and 2011 are not going to be a repeat of 1999 and 2000, or even 2007, but it's quite likely that some companies and executives will let market momentum go to their heads and make some dumb moves. It always happens. Here's what I would watch out for:

Over-promising execs. We would all like to believe that our best hopes for the market will come true. Given the tough recession that we've been through, and the fact that many sectors of the economy may not bounce back for some time, this is probably a really good time to under-promise and over-deliver. This is not a good time to go to the market making too much noise and promising the world.

Ego-boosting trade campaigns. I am a big believer in trade advertising, particularly in the media industry. Brands matter, and brands particularly matter to people who spend their days looking for partners to help their clients build their brands. However, as we have seen time and time again, many in the media business launch big trade campaigns -- and the attendant over-the-top parties -- to stroke their egos rather than to focustightly on real results. Don't get me wrong: I like to go to parties, too!

Over-hiring. When a business is growing, most companies need to expand their teams, particularly those in sales and business development. Unfortunately, some companies get out of control when it comes to hiring, believing that they can fire and downsize those folks quickly if the market moves slower than expected. Also, some companies like to hire fast to create apparent market momentum. Whichever it is, it's rarely good for the companies -- and is never good for the employees.

Snake-oil salesmen. When markets get frothy, lots of opportunists show up. Media is no different, and digital media has seen many waves of them. Remember all those "web marketing consultants" in the mid- and late '90s. Then we had the "search marketing specialists" in the mid-2000s. Most recently, we had all of the "social media mavens." Most of the folks in these professions are legit and deliver great services, but plenty of charlatans show up when things are good. It will happen again.

What do you think? Do you agree that some of our industry sectors are entering heady -- and dangerous -- times? What should we watch out for?