Led by the iPad, worldwide shipments of media tablets are expected to grow 57.4% annually from 7.6 million in 2010 to 46 million in 2014, according to a new forecast by market research firm IDC.
As the category matures and more applications become available, IDC predicts that tablets will gradually shift from being considered niche luxury devices to necessities for many consumers. Purpose-built apps will play a big part in driving demand for media tablets, which IDC defines as devices with 7- to-12-inch color displays and lightweight operating systems like the iPhone OS or Android as distinguished from tablet PCs, based on x86 processors, that run full PC operating systems.
"The compelling thing about apps is the degree to which they can be tailored to deliver very specific content experiences to consumers...and those experiences can be richer and more targeted than what's possible through a Web site," said Susan Kevorkian, program director for the mobile media and entertainment practice at IDC.
With 150,000 apps for the iPhone (which can be opened on the iPad) and some 5,000 titles already for the iPad specifically, Apple has a big head start over rivals in that department. Apple has said it sold 1 million iPads within the first month after they became widely available April 3. And of the 7.6 million media tablets IDC estimates will be sold this year, it expects that 6.4 million -- or 82% of the total -- will be iPads.
IDC did not forecast iPad sales into the future, but expects Apple to be the category leader five years from now as well. That doesn't mean other players won't be vying to take share from Apple.
"We expect to see a variety of vendors enter the media tablet market beginning later this year from mobile operators, like AT&T and Verizon, to PC vendors, to CE manufacturers," said Kevorkian. Whether or not they will be significant players will depend on the degree to which they can compete with Apple, based on media tablet functionality, price or service plan for mobile broadband-enabled devices."
A report last week that Verizon is working with Google on a tablet to compete with the iPad caused a stir, although details of the partnership are still scant. The two companies last year announced a long-term strategic partnership aimed at launching a variety of Android-based devices and applications.
Because the iPad and other tablets do not include built-in hardware keyboards or full PC operating systems, they have not been viewed so far as legitimate business tools. But while marketed as entertainment platforms, IDC says media tablets will eventually also gain ground in the enterprise market through productivity apps.