• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, July 15, 2010

With the nascent retail recovery showing alarming signs of pooping out, experts are predicting that marketers will go all in for the back-to-school season, using celebrity tie-ins, heavy-duty promotional battles and plenty of social marketing.

Stores like Macy's, with the launch of both the "Glee" and "Material Girl" line by Madonna, and JCPenney, with its just-breaking "New look. New year. Who knew!" school effort, will be among the most visible.

"Clearly, social marketing is going to be bigger this season than it's ever been," Doug Akin, managing partner for Mr Youth, a marketing agency based in New York, tells Marketing Daily. "We don't just expect to see brands heavy up on their social spending, but we're expecting to see more in the way of custom content, in the style of 'haul' videos, where people show off their best finds, and the creation of apps. There are even companies offering small incentives -- such as the chance to enter a contest-- just for trying clothes on."

Akin says he also expects that just as department stores are getting more aggressive in courting back-to-school bucks, so will Web-based retailers, including members-only shopping sites, such as Gilt Group.

The good news is that while some studies have predicted flat spending, others offer more optimism: The National Retail Federation thinks consumers are in the mood to spend again, and predicts the average American family will shell out $606.40 on clothes, shoes, supplies and electronics this year, compared to $548.72 last year (and close to the $594.24 spent in 2008.) Total spending on school-age children is expected to reach $21.35 billion, and $55.12 billion when you toss in college spending.

Still, consumers are more price-conscious. The NRF study, conducted by BIGResearch, reports that 44.3% plan to buy more store brand or generic products -- up from 41.7% last year -- and 30.3% will comparison shop online before shopping, up from 26.4%.

One change is that kids are likely to be spending more of their own money, says the NRF -- an average of $31.74 for school items, up slightly from $30.88 last year. While that doesn't sound like much, their influence is more considerable: Six in 10 adults say kids influence 50% or more of back-to-school purchases.

That's why stores are aiming more of their efforts at teens themselves. JCPenney says its new campaign combines traditional marketing initiatives with the latest digital, social and mobile experiences -- including haul videos, augmented reality, and mobile iAds, all intended to encourage teens "to take control and discover our extensive assortment of exciting styles and brands at affordable prices," it says in its release. (Its mobile hub, jcpteen.mobi, includes TV spots, hauls and opting in for weekly style updates.)

Macy's, which also describes its effort as aggressive, is also aiming more directly at teens, including a style sitelet, mobile marketing efforts, and, in partnership with Microsoft, an exclusive preview of Kinect for Xbox 360, which does not officially launch until November.