• August 31, 2010

Visits to U.S. restaurants are forecast to grow at under 1% per year over the next decade, according to The NPD Group -growth that will underperform the projected 1.1% annual growth in the total population.

Over the 10-year span, population growth should cause restaurant visits should to increase by a cumulative 8% (a compound annual growth rate of just 0.8%), from 2009's 59.8 million to 64.8 million in 2019, according to a new "Future of Foodservice" report from the research group.  

Further, annual per-capita visits averaged 205.6 in 2004, dropped to 197.1 in 2009, and are projected to further decline, to 191.5, by 2019.

The population's aging will result in the restaurant industry being more dependent on those 50 and older as a larger part of their customer bases -- and consumers tend to eat out less as they become older, sums up NPD restaurant industry analyst and report author Bonnie Riggs.

Other trend factors not working in restaurants' favor include fewer women entering the workforce and the competitive scenario. 

However, restaurant operators can seek to leverage factors such as new menu items, opportunities such as breakfast and snack day parts, and promotions to improve their odds in the face of the population's aging and growth rate, Riggs points out.

Forecasts are "not cast in stone," she says.  "The future course can be altered."