• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, December 7, 2010

In 2006, CBS' chief researcher David Poltrack offered up this wry comment: "This is my 36th year working for a dying medium." He meant broadcast television.

The networks' demise has been boldly predicted since at least the Iran hostage crisis by authors (Ken Auletta), cable guys (Turner Broadcasting) and journalists (MediaPost). There was some fuel to their fire as DVRs spread and the recession set in. Disney's Bob Iger told investors ABC was "a challenged business" and CBS stock hit the $3 range. Then, there was the limp 2009 upfront.

End the death pool. The medium could be stronger than it's ever been. If the network model is viewed as a multilayered ecosystem, a case can easily be made.

Iger's pessimism came as the networks were carping about the single ad-supported revenue stream. But swiftly, they've gone from one revenue trough to three. And growth for the trio looks robust for years to come.

Networks are coming off a flush upfront this summer, making back losses from the previous summer. The scatter market is flourishing. And new forecasts predict TV to be at the leading edge of growth in the ad market in 2011. Poltrack predicted Monday that the Big Four's ad dollars would be up 5% next year, after a surprising 4.6% in 2010.

But what about the ratings? They seem to go down every year. Not good, but more than manageable. As long as the largest marketers continue to believe TV is a must-have, networks can simply drive up the rates for the fewer rating points. Simple supply and demand applies.

Actually, Poltrack said with the C3 ratings (the ones that count) this season, CBS and NBC are up. ABC is down, but at a "manageable" level in terms of ability to give advertisers make goods, and take advantage of the hot scatter market. Fox could continue to struggle, but if Jennifer Lopez energizes "American Idol" in the spring, it too, could make advertisers whole and skate with scatter.

Beyond advertising, view the networks holistically. Meld in the local stations they own and there is a new bucket of found money. Small station groups jump-started it, but credit goes to CBS chief Leslie Moonves for demanding networks receive payments from cable, satellite and telco operators for rights to carry their outlets in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and other markets.

Growth in those retransmission consent payments may never stop. ABC and then Fox demanded cash from Cablevision to carry their channels in New York this year. Cablevision put up a fight and then became a tomato can.

Comcast signed a 10-year deal with CBS. Why? Partly a realization that it will collect the handsome payments for its 10 NBC stations when it takes control of them. If cable channels have been the darlings of investors with dual-revenue streams. Networks have essentially become them -- and more. Unlike a Discovery Channel, they reach every TV home.

And networks are also getting paid by their affiliates as they collect retrans money. If our programming helps you, pay up. Broadcast TV does remain a business of hits that carries risk. But the reward outweighs it.

Plus, networks frustrated at Obama's FCC should at least thank him for resuscitating General Motors and Chrysler, bringing the auto industry's endless dollars back. Further, marketers spending liberally comes as potential customers continue to battle the recession.

There are also growing opportunities for the studios networks to distribute programming globally via new media. Broadcasters hold the cards when it comes to negotiating with Google, Apple and Netflix, which are tripping over each other to offer streams of their shows on the Web and new TVs.

As for those cable guys, notably Turner, making the argument that cable networks are now on par with broadcasters. Their case may have been stronger several years ago. Cable networks have been peeling viewers from networks for years. Poltrack said as far back as 1980 "we began defending what we already had." And TBS was heavy on "Gomer Pyle" then.

Yet, as cable has been investing in original programming and produced some spectacular shows, the top-rated cable shows have ratings that pale beside even bottom-barrel broadcast shows. True, the cable networks do rake in sub fees, allowing them to acquire top-tier sports programming. After the 2008 Olympics, NBC Universal's Jeff Zucker said the ratings were a validation that the broadcast "pipes still work." More than ever?