• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, December 15, 2010

With stores already offering big sales on some of the season's hottest items, shoppers are biting. But a new survey from the National Retail Federation reports that the average consumer has only crossed off 49.5% of her list. (That's up a bit from last year, when the average person had only finished 46.7% of holiday shopping.) As a result, the Washington, D.C.-based trade group expects retailers to crank up the price cuts in the season's final few weeks.

Still, it's all good: So good, in fact, that the NRF has raised its forecast, and now expects the season to end up 3.3% to $451.5 billion -- not the 2.3% it predicted last month. "The start to the holiday season has surpassed all expectations," NRF president/CEO Matthew Shay says in its release. "While employment data is still a concern, we are starting to see improvement in other economic indicators that support an increase to our forecast."

The survey, conducted by BIGResearch, finds that 16.9% of Americans haven't even started shopping, while 10.1% are already finished. And while 32.4% plan to finish shopping this weekend, Friday, Dec. 24, is expected to be the second-busiest day.

And stores are ready for them. Walmart, for example, just announced yet another wave of price cuts, including 50% off many home and clothing purchases, as well as $50 off on many electronics. It's also expanded its gift-card-with-purchase offers. Buying a $299 PlayStation3 will get shoppers a $100 Walmart Gift Card, for example; a $199 Nintendo Wii package yields a $75 gift card.

A separate report, from the latest American Express Spending & Saving Tracker, says 84% of consumers still have shopping to do, and 26% of those say they are spending more this year than last. (That's because 45% have expanded their gift list, 35% are buying pricier presents, and 33% are buying a few things for themselves, too.) And 43% say they will keep shopping, and are planning to make a purchase the day after Christmas.

The NRF study also found that phones are flexing their mobile muscle: Of people who have used their smartphone to shop, 26% have actually made a purchase with it, while 32.5% use them to receive text messages with special offers. But browsing for gift ideas (60.2%), locating stores or checking hours (50.7%) and reading reviews (34.6%) continue to be the most popular.