• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, April 13, 2011

Despite an analyst's projection Tuesday that broadcast pricing and volume in the coming upfront would be up significantly, MediaVest Investment President Donna Speciale suggested that any prediction is way ahead of schedule. From her perspective, a principal reason is that she has not received budgets from clients.

At the MediaPost Outfront event, Initiative executive Kris Magel also had questions about an exceedingly robust projection. "I don't think that it's a lock, that the upfront is going to generate 12% CPM increases ... there's a lot of stuff going on right now in the economy -- there's a lot of things happening to commodity prices that need to be taken into consideration for a forward-looking market like the upfront," Magel said.

Miller Tabak + Co.'s David Joyce released a report Tuesday predicting the Big Four networks in the upfront would see average prime-time prices up 11.3% above 2010 levels. Total volume for broadcasters could soar about 14.7% to $10.3 billion.

But in a strong market, Magel said, it is Initiative's job to advise clients -- whose budgets are not increasing by a 12% margin -- on "innovative" alternatives. "We've got to find ways to deliver on their communication objectives, while still realizing that some of these things are going to cost more," he said.

Some have argued for years that, while the upfront provides a certain barometer on the health of the TV ad market, it is becoming more important to Wall Street and the media than for buyers and sellers.

The two say they are increasingly doing deals year-round, especially with digital options to be considered as a part. "The upfront has become a spectator sport on many levels," said MTV Networks' Jeff Lucas, who oversees sales for networks such as MTV and Comedy Central.