Yahoo's Analyst Day Long-Term Guidance


U.S. Internet advertising revenue for first-quarter 2011 rose 23% to $7.3 billion compared with the year-ago quarter, according to stats released Thursday by Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). How does Yahoo fit in?

Revenue from online advertising should continue to improve. While Wall Street and investors didn't learn anything significant at Yahoo's Analyst Day Wednesday, the company did give guidance on what to expect through 2013.

Led by CEO Carl Bartz, Yahoo updated its growth targets for display ad revenue to grow at about 13% to 16% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2012 and 2013, search to grow at about 3% to 6% CAGR during the next three years, and other areas to grow below the 2% to 4% CAGR projected last year.

Gleacher & Company Securities Analyst Yun Kim published Thursday in a research note a list of positive and negative scenarios that would change the firm's position on the stock. One positive note is that "investor sentiment on online display business turns positive upon realization that there is a significant monetization potential in the display market, which could lead to meaningfully faster growth than that of search."

On the negative side, Kim wrote:

1) Display business, especially its North American operation, fails to rebound.

2) Any negative trend in its search business that could lead to slower growth than company's guidance.

3) Failure to be relevant in the mobile space with its focus on apps rather than the platform.

4) And a sizable decline in the value of its Asian assets.

Aside from long-term guidance, Yahoo expanded on not selling off the Asian part of the company, consisting of China and Japan, piecemeal. The concerns were prompted by the handling of the disclosure of transferring its 43% stake in Alibaba Group -- specifically Alipay, an online payment service, to another company. It turns out that Chinese law prohibits foreign ownership of online payment companies.


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