Commentary

Leaders & Bleeders: Cable Up, Chrysler Down

It must be a great week to work at an agency where summer Fridays -- half days, show up, check email and bolt -- were maybe summer Wednesdays this week. Even for those who haven't been able to hit the beach yet, there's still time for Tom Clancy, David McCullough and OK! (report: Vinny has left the "Jersey Shore" house during filming, but is now back ... though may be leaving again).

For those seeking a more compelling read, it's time for Leaders & Bleeders:

LEADERS:

1) CABLE OPERATORS -- From iPad streaming to exploiting Internet-connected TVs to new user guides to interactive advertising, the technology is moving at a phenomenal pace and advancements show no signs of slowing. Cord-cutting may be an overblown threat, but even if it gains traction, operators' ability to offer supernatural Internet speed will be a boon, making them increasingly wealthy. After all, Netflix runs over their pipes.

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2) "TODAY" IN THE AFTERNOON - Jeff Zucker, executive producer for Katie Couric's new afternoon show, articulates a promising mission for it: let Couric be the Couric who was such a star on "Today." If her ability to shift between questioning NJ Gov. Chris Christie and laughing with Chris Rock got lost at CBS News, Zucker said, so did her brand: "It's a brand that's got credibility and fun -- and that's the hope we take into that program." While Zucker was careful to say there will never be another Oprah, Couric's show under his leadership should be a breakout hit. The show will make its debut next fall close to the election, so the first guest could be a guy named Obama.

3) NFL - A snag in resolving the labor dispute might have emerged, but the fact the previously warring factions are even this close to avoiding a disruption in the regular season is startling, maybe more so than Detroit winning a Super Bowl. Networks and advertisers planning for missed games have to be ecstatic. NBC is potentially a big winner with emotional New York Jets home game scheduled for prime time on 10th anniversary of 9/11.

4) RANDY FALCO -- Joins Univision in January and becomes CEO six months later. The classy former NBC executive will be able ride advertising uptick as Hispanic consumers grow in value. Next year, a flood of political dollars should help the local stations. Also, the company is set to launch three new cable channels, including a 24/7 Spanish-language news net that could serve a true market need.

5) ESPN - Losing Olympic bidding is a gold medal, giving it billions of dollars now to spend on acquiring other properties -- which don't last 17 days and come every two years. Ratings are up significantly and advertiser demand for live sports is growing. The ESPN book was supposed to reveal all sorts of damaging things, but faded from the spotlight pretty fast. Bill Simmons' new site Grantland.com could be trouble if it goes with too much long-form journalism on the Web, where readers appreciate info chunks. Then again, Simmons has been writing dissertations for years and is exceedingly popular.

BLEEDERS:

1) CHRYSLER - Painfully diminishes one of the greatest Super Bowl spots of all time by going Hollywood. The two-minute spot in the big game featured Eminem and struck the perfect note about a valiant Detroit battling through tough times. There was some implied linkage between a reenergized Chrysler and a would-be Detroit renaissance. Eminem's closing line: "This is the Motor City. And this is what we do" offered a rallying cry for the city forever. Then in June, Chrysler tried to play off the spot with a West Coast version, where Dr. Dre said: "This is L.A., this is what we do." It was weak. Detroit deserved better.

2) GOLF AND TENNIS - NBC caused a stir by leaving out "under God" in Pledge of Allegiance during opening piece for U.S. Open. Also, final-round ratings fell. Tiger Woods remains injured and might now miss the British Open. Tennis is now dominated by Europeans, making Wimbledon less interesting stateside. Possibly the same for the U.S. Open in August. Maria Sharapova has fans, but there is one American female in the top 25. Roger Federer on the men's side is fading, so the epic rivalry with Nadal might be over.

3) THE ECONOMY - Gas prices are down and Midwest manufacturing is on the rise, but job the market is still sluggish and consumer confidence is down. Still, the upfront market was a boon for networks and big marketers don't appear to be looking for cost savings by cutting TV spending.

4) HULU - The online video amusement park might be sold and two strategies could deter viewers. The Los Angeles Times reports that with cable and satellite operators upset that shows are being made available so soon after air, Hulu may require non-pay-TV subscribers to wait eight days before they can view an episode. Also, commercial loads are set to become larger. Turner, for one, has data showing viewers are cool with that. Self-serving?

5) NBA - League institutes a lockout, but it's still months before next season and may just be a negotiating tactic. But with ratings strong last season and the gripping LeBron James - can he win a title - saga, lost games would slow new momentum. Still, that could have a benefit in a blissfully shorter season. The 1998-99 lockout-shortened season was terrific, since with only 50 games, each one meant something.

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