• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, August 25, 2011

Citing "global macro-economic factors, natural disasters and political instability," Aegis' Carat unit has downgraded its global ad spending outlook, but still expects worldwide ad spending to expand at a healthy rate in 2011. Carat said it has reduced its 2011 forecast by seven-tenths of a percentage point, and that worldwide ad spending is now expected to expand by 5.0% vs. 5.7% in its previous forecast.

"Carat's updated global ad forecasts demonstrate that the recovery in most major advertising markets has continued in 2011 and is set to continue in 2012, against the backdrop of uncertain times," stated Aegis CEO Jerry Buhlmann, adding, "The impact of global macro-economic and political issues, combined with natural disasters, has led us to soften the full-year outlook for 2011 and 2012."

Carat's shaved only two-tenths of a point off its 2012 projection, and now expects global ad spending to expand by 6.0% next year, down from 6.2% in its last forecast in March. Carat cited incremental stimuli from special advertising-related events in 2012, including the Summer Olympic Games in London, the UEFA European Football Championship and the U.S. presidential elections.

Additionally, Buhlmann said that fast-growing and emerging markets continue to offset the lagging major industrialized nations in ad spending growth. He described this as a bifurcated advertising world:

"At the heart of the market, the long-term trend of the two-speed advertising world and the rapid growth of digital are very much in force. The faster-growing regions of the world - particularly China, Russia and Latin America - will continue to eclipse performances from the developed economies. In terms of the growth in media share digital remains the leader of the pack, with out-of-home and TV growing faster than the overall market."

Among the major media, digital remains they key driver in terms of overall growth, but traditional media such as TV and out-of-home are sustaining factors.

Global year on year % growth at current prices
	2011	2012
Television	6.0 (6.7)	6.2 (6.5)
Newspapers	0.1 (0.3)	0.6 (0.6)
Magazines	-0.4 (0.3)	2.3 (2.0)
Radio	4.0 (6.1)	5.5 (6.5)
Cinema	5.2 (5.6)	3.8 (5.6)
Out of Home	6.3 (7.2)	8.1 (7.8)
Digital	13.3 (13.6)	14.4 (14.5)

 

 

Global % Share of Advertising Spend
	2011	2012
Television	46.0 (46.1)	46.1 (46.3)
Newspapers	16.2 (15.8)	15.4 (15.0)
Magazines	10.0 (10.2)	9.6 (9.8)
Radio	7.1 (7.3)	7.1 (7.3)
Cinema	0.6 (0.6)	0.6 (0.6)
Out of Home	7.1 (7.0)	7.2 (7.1)
Digital	13.0 (13.0)	14.0 (14.0)

Source: Carat, August 2011.