• by Thom Forbes  @tforbes, September 6, 2011

The headlines this morning tell the tale of some very different states of mind. Additional economic woes in Europe have the U.S. stock market in a tizzy before it opens. And while President Obama has given us a hint of what he has in mind for creating jobs, who thinks this is going to amount to much more than the kickoff of the political football season? But then, just in the nick of Times, we have some good news on the retail front.

In the New York Times, Stuart Elliott cites unexpectedly rosy quarterlies recently and a rash of upbeat breaking campaigns to support a headline that reads: "Retailers Summon Optimism as They Enter a Critical Season."

Across the continent, Andrea Chang of the Los Angeles Times ledes with the projections of the chief economist for the International Council of Shopping Centers, who believes that sales will rise 3.5% for November and December combined. That may be the "good, not great" range of sanguinity, but who's to argue with the merely "good" in times like these?

Much of Elliott's column is devoted to a breaking $10-15 million campaign by Japan's Uniqlo supporting two stores opening in Manhattan this fall. They will join an existing outlet in SoHo.

"The campaign carries the theme 'Made for all,' underlining the Uniqlo brand philosophy as a purveyor of 'high quality at a competitive price,'" Uniqlo USA CEO Shin Odake tells Elliott. Models include semiboldface names like Tumblr's David Karp, chef David Chang and jazz musician Esperanza Spalding, as well as actors Darren Criss, John Leguizamo, Laura Linney and Susan Sarandon.

Then there are the first national TV spots by Coldwater Creek, which "present confident women of a certain age dressing for occasions like dates and class reunions." And in the quote of the morning, Ellis Verdi, president of DeVito/Verdi, which produced the spots, says, "We are optimistic" because these women "are not going to bum around in schleppy clothes."

Schleppy aside, analysts tell Chang that boom or bust in the coming months depends mostly on what the middle-income folks do. And if what they do does indeed bottom out on the upside, we may be looking at a rosier future.

"If we have a solid holiday season and there's a sense that the consumer is resilient ... I think you get more bullish on hiring and it could start to move the employment rate," Kurt Salmon retail strategist Michael Dart tells Chang. "It could ease a lot of the anxiety that permeates every business and permeates the consumer psyche right now."

Encino resident Jodi Odell is one shopper who is getting with the program even though business is slow at the architecture and design firm she and her husband run. She says holiday shopping for her four children is "therapeutic when nothing else is going well" and she has no plans to pinch pennies when it comes to her kids. She and hubby, on the other hand, are restricting themselves to stocking stuffers but, Odell points out, "Tiffany fits very well in a stocking."

It's thinking like this that leaves Michael McNamara, vp of research and analysis at data service MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse, scratching his head about the way we continue to try to buy our way out of the slump. "This is just a consistent thing that has not correlated with the deterioration in consumer confidence. It's been an interesting phenomenon in 2011."

Things are indeed bustling at the ports in Southern California, reports Sanden Totten of 89.3 KPCC, at least compared to recent years.

"It's been good, it's been good. It's not the glory days, but you know everyone is being able to work and take care of their family and do the right thing, so it's not too bad," longshoremen Donovan Russell tells Chang.

Art Wong, a spokesman for the Port of Long Beach, says that retailers caught on that stores with threadbare offerings were turning off shoppers.

"I think there was a concerted decision among the retailers to put things back in the stores because people wouldn't return if the stores were empty," Wong says. "So there was this big rush to fill the stores with things, to try and entice the people back into the stores, and it worked."

So we've got the goods flowing in. And we've got shoppers primed to buy, the economy and politicking be damned. And if it doesn't all turn out the way it's scripted come January? Why, we can, as usual, blame it all on the advertising agencies.