• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, November 2, 2011

It was a brutal winter last year for much of the country and with a pre-Halloween snowstorm in the Northeast, well, uh oh. One thing’s for sure, the Weather Channel loves it.

Less optimistic about the months ahead are TNT and ESPN as the NBA lockout is bringing a slew of cancelled games. Except for missing Charles Barkley’s commentary on TNT, this is a good thing for the public. Once – if -- the league returns, the shortened season will mean fewer meaningless games with an accelerated race to the playoffs.

Meanwhile, any surprise about ratings for “The X Factor” aren’t limited to the U.S. While Fox says it’s pleased and just renewed it for a second season, others may wonder why Simon Cowell hasn’t been able to pull in a bigger audience.

In Britain, though, many blame Cowell’s absence for the U.K. version losing steam, which may have culminated Saturday with a loss in the ratings to BBC’s “Strictly Come Dancing” for the first time in years.

Cowell had hosted the show on ITV for years, before moving across the pond to Fox this fall.

Now, there are new judges, who have engaged in much-publicized rows among themselves. One of them, American destiny child Kelly Rowland, missed last weekend’s shows with an illness, prompting fears she wouldn’t return, though she is back.

The British media have described the U.K. “X Factor” as “under-fire” and “crisis-hit.” On one BBC podcast, a guest said ITV should implore Cowell by saying: “Your country needs you.”

As Britain fights for its hero to return, it’s time for this month’s Leaders & Bleeders.

LEADERS:

1) ALASKA – The last frontier is making a claim to be first in reality TV. Former Governor Sarah Palin brought record ratings to TLC with her show about the state, though it wasn’t renewed for a second season. But “Gold Rush Alaska” and “Flying Wild Alaska” are now back on Discovery. And the Weather Channel has “Coast Guard Alaska” premiering next week. That's set at a base in Kodiak. Apparently, the Coast Guard working there offers enough action for more than one show. TNT reportedly has a series coming from reality giant Thom Beers focusing on the same.

2) TELEMUNDO – The Spanish-language network looks to be benefiting from falling under Comcast control, prying rights to the World Cup away from Univision after 2014. The reported $600 million rights fee is steep, but Comcast is bullish on the Cup bolstering the Telemundo properties. Also, Telemundo’s prime-time ratings this season are up 34% in the 18-to-49 demo by one measure, while Univision’s are down 8%. The gap between the two is closing, but Univision still leads by loads.

3) REDBOX – Netflix loses 800,000 customers after raising prices. Redbox slides in a 20% increase -- albeit less than Netflix's -- and no one seems to notice. The company is poised to benefit from those angry Netflickers as its kiosks offer new-release movies for as low as $1.20 a day. Redbox only offers TV DVDs occasionally (AMC’s “Walking Dead” is available now). If it opts to move more aggressively into that arena, it could further challenge Netflix. And networks would love it with another bidder willing to give it found money.

4) CNN – The Presidential campaign, bloody pictures of Gadhafi, the Greek economy, a renewed hunger for more hard news, affection for Anderson Cooper ... For whatever reason, CNN seems to be enjoying a revival. With its new prime-time line-up -- which includes a repeat of Cooper at 10 p.m. – ratings in the 25-to-54 demo are up 19% this season by one measure. That's pulled it into a tie with MSNBC. Meanwhile – even as Republicans joust in the White House race – Fox News is down 21%. CNN is now looking to gain share in the morning by reportedly shaking up its anchors. It can only hope that the news continues to go its way there in more ways than one.

5) JIMMY KIMMEL – At a time when late-night hosts are struggling to keep their audiences, the ABC star’s ratings are up this season, albeit barely. But that does make him the only one on broadcast TV on the upswing. One caveat: his show is now starting five minutes earlier than it did last fall. For years, the comedian has been the biggest draw during upfront week with his stand-up routine skewering the TV business and his own network. Now, he’s been tapped to take shots at Washington as host of the White Correspondents’ dinner next spring. There’s no way politics could give him more good material than the TV business, right?

BLEEDERS:

1) E! – The Kardashians have brought a mother lode of cash to the network since 2007. And, while that’s likely to continue with spin-offs and specials, more fiascos like Kim’s wedding broadcast might impair the lucrative franchise. Her two-night wedding special on E! drew significant ratings, but the marriage to NBA player Kris Humphries lasted 72 days -- and there’s an outcry that the network was in on a stunt, which it denies. The Kardashian family is in a damage control mode, with mother Kris saying that even though Kim was paid handsomely for the nuptials, she actually lost money after expenses. Kim also announced that the gifts she and Kris received will go to charity, but reportedly she’s not donating the cash she took home from E!.

2) POLITICAL DOLLARS – Local stations looking for mass cash during the Republican primary season early next year might be disappointed. Mitt Romney looks to be on his way to sewing up the GOP nomination by no later than the Florida vote on Jan. 31. Then, that might mean a long lull until he and President Obama start going after each other. Obama will have a fortune to spend, but might contest fewer states next year than 2008. Of course, there are plenty of Congressional races that will be laced with nasty ads that should fill coffers.  

3) AUTO ADVERTISING – The conventional wisdom is this category should continue its renewed post-bailout strength. GM just announced a new campaign for Chevy, while Toyota has one teeing off for the Camry. But a Wall Street Journal report this week had to bring some jitters, noting Honda reported a 56% drop in profit in the recent quarter with Asian natural disasters hurting production and issues with the yen’s value. Also, how many strapped Americans are really in the market for a car now? Further, Toyota’s market share in the U.S. has dropped over the past two years. On the plus side, that might lead it will spend more on marketing. Also a positive, a new research initiative between J.D. Power and Kantar could help marketers better hit their targets.

4) “ROCK CENTER WITH BRIAN WILLIAMS” – The new NBC newsmagazine offered a fast-moving tone in its debut, contrasting nicely with the oft-plodding “60 Minutes.” The stories were informative, particularly one on the North Dakotan oil boom. Jon Stewart’s guest appearance, however, would have been much better had he stayed with his witty commentary and not turned himself into a foolish character. NBC is likely to stick with the show, but the ratings were hardly impressive as it finished third in its time slot and didn’t top NBC’s quickly cancelled “Playboy Club.”   

5) ESPN – The company’s business appears to be soaring. “Sports” and “live TV” may be the most impactful buzzwords among advertisers these days and ESPN obviously has plenty of both. But while it denies that it has played a role in nudging colleges and conferences as they undergo massive realignment, many have a hard time believing it. Then again, maybe the media is just driving the critical train. What is undeniable is ESPN’s Longhorn Network hasn’t exactly seeded stability in college sports.