GroupM has downgraded its 2011 and 2012 projections for ad growth in the U.S. Chief Investment Officer Rino Scanzoni said the previous projection of a 3.8% growth in 2011 for all measured media now stands at 3.3%.
Looking ahead, the 2012 forecast had called for 4.2% growth, which is down to 4%. The altered projections were released at mid-year. The predictions use GDP growth as one basis.
Scanzoni spoke at an industry event Tuesday where he delved into two areas involving TV measurement he had referenced before.
Like many, he suggested Nielsen's national TV panel is outmoded and questioned its long-term viability. “A sample-based system doesn’t apply in the world we're in,” he said.
It may have worked when there were three networks, he said, but not 80-plus cable channels and viewing on other devices. Scanzoni would like to use some melding of set-top-box data with Nielsen's panel. "I don't think it's going to be one versus another," he said.
Nielsen is pursuing a so-called hybrid model, but not in the national marketplace, as Scanzoni would like. GroupM's parent company WPP owns Kantar, which has a measurement system based on set-top-box data from DirecTV.
Scanzoni also pushed for the local TV market to move away from "live only"
ratings as the currency, since it fails to take into account time-shifted viewing and DVR-enabled ad skipping. He said it is "not good business practice," when an estimated 50% of ads are
Separately, Scanzoni is eager for Nielsen to begin measuring viewing on iPads, which it says is in development. “The question is trying to get them to do it quickly … it takes them a long time to do things that need to be done and that holds back the industry,” he said.